The Largest Financial Discrepancies Ever?

Singapore public finances contain the largest unexplained financial discrepancies in human history.

That may sound like a grandiose rhetorical bombast, but it is completely and entirely accurate description of existing data.  Using nothing more complex that addition, subtraction, compounding interest, and official Singaporean public financial records, anyone can easily see that enormous discrepancies exist.

The financial irregularities in Singaporean financials are easy to spot when attempting to simply accept all their claims as true and valid.  It is a straightforward mathematical impossibility that all their claims about their finances are true.  Let us present the fundamentals of what Singapore is claiming.

  1. From 1974 to 2014, Singapore enjoyed operational surpluses totaling $369 billion SGD.
  2. From 1974 to 2014, Singapore increased public indebtedness from $5 billion SGD to approximately $388 billion SGD. Singapore claims that this was for investment purposes and given the operational surpluses, it had no need to be consumed via public expenditure.
  3. From 1974 to 2014, Singapore enjoyed total free cash flow from operational surplus and net liability incurrence, totaling $822 billion SGD.
  4. From 1974 to 2014, Temasek Holdings claimed an annualized 16% return beginning with a $374 million SGD portfolio value at inception.
  5. For most of its existence, the Government Investment Corporation of Singapore has claimed a long term annualized return of 7% in USD terms.
  6. The Singapore government lists financial assets of $834 billion SGD on its public balance sheet.

Those are the facts that the Singaporean government claims to be true.  Without knowing anything about finance or conducting in depth analysis everyone should find two claims by Singapore completely contradictory: if Singapore enjoyed such free cash flow of $822 billion SGD for 41 years, how can its claims to produce stellar to world beating investment returns be reconciled with their declaration of only $834 billion in financial assets?

Using conservative estimates that account for debt servicing costs, currency losses from USD returns, and matching existing declared government cash holdings with the assumption that cash earns no return, if we accept Temasek and GIC claims about their returns along with the declared financial assets on the public balance sheet there remains a $670 billion SGD or $499 billion USD discrepancy.  Using a slightly less conservative assumption on cash holdings produces a discrepancy, while still using the claims of the Singaporean government, of $848 billion SGD or $631 billion USD.

It must be strongly emphasized that these estimates are produced using official Singapore financial data and assuming that the claims of the Singapore government, Temasek, and GIC are true and accurate.  If the claims by the Singapore government and its related entities are to be believed, then enormous discrepancies exist what their declared assets are and what they should have.  It belies common sense that $822 billion SGD can be invested over 41 years and produce only $834 bilion SGD even after accounting for debt service and currency losses.

In the days and weeks ahead, I will be writing extensively on Singaporean public finances taking different parts of the data, entities, and key official involved to provide clear evidence of the discrepancy.  This will include a large amount of collected data which will be released for anyone to review.  This will include evidence of how key Singaporeans have benefited enormously from this flow of money, historical examples of financial impropriety, and raise serious questions about ongoing financial transfers.

Based upon all available evidence, while it may seem rhetorical flourish, all existing evidence indicates that Singapore is sitting on the largest unexplained discrepancies ever.

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