Snowmageddon 2019!

Of snow storms and bear markets.

Northern Arizona, including Walker where I live, had a massive snow storm this past week. It snowed some last weekend and created problems with people getting hurt while getting stranded/stuck on the road requiring emergency medical help from the Fire Department. Then starting Wednesday night through yesterday we got another two feet, maybe more. Between the two storms we have about 30 inches which is a lot for here. It was so much that the County plow couldn't go, a road grater (the kind with a scraper in the back) had to come through first.

We live about a 1/3 of a mile up from the portion that the County maintains so that means I need to clear my own road down to where the County maintains. My plan going in was to make several runs during the storm to avoid having to try to push two feet of snow all at once. Despite doing this, there is still too much snow for me to move effectively with the plow. Where the road down to the pavement actually goes down I am plowing 50 feet or so, jumping out of the ATV and shoveling away the massive pile I just made and then repeating. The parts down to the road that actually go uphill, require shoveling, a lot of shoveling in some instances.

I've been doing it in segments. Today I made my first run down to the bottom but it will take multiple runs as I described above, but hopefully with less shoveling from here on out.

My idea of making runs during the storm to lessen the amount of snow I'd ultimately have to try to move worked in that it did lessen the amount of snow but did not work as well as hoped for--meaning I did a lot more shoveling that I planned on. There is a parallel to managing a portfolio through a bear market. The way I like to start taking defensive action upon a breach by the S&P 500 of its 200 day moving average (DMA) is to buy some sort of fund that should go up when the market goes down, this time around I bought BTAL, SH and TAIL.

If you buy some sort of fund like that with a small percentage of your portfolio and the market does something hideous then the fund you bought will probably do what it was supposed to do (go up) but you might think it wasn't that effective if it turned out that you didn't buy "enough."

The point is no strategy can be perfect but it can make things better. We learned a couple of things with this huge snow storm that we can do differently the next time we have a huge snow storm (the last time we got this much was 2012) and any bear market should, among other things, be a learning opportunity maybe for what to do better next or maybe for what not to do next time.