Among the few analysts actually putting their necks out and calling it are Rabobank, who suspect the Fed has triggered a recession by jumping the gun on rates. Their 'early warning system' has picked up the yield curve signs and put a 69 percent probability on a recession by May 2020, noting the "first cracks in the housing market". Rabobank is no more optimistic for Europe which it sees "already close to recession now" with gloomy industrial data and potentially more damage from Brexit or the "Yellow Vest" protests.