Headlines: Trump: US is doing well in trade talks with China; tariffs could go up if we don't reach a deal.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam said she is not optimistic any trade deal between the US and China will last - HK Press.

UK Intl Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, speaking in Davos, strongly rejects the idea of an Article 50 extension (partly due to EU elections in May). Given cable’s performance, it seems an extension is strongly priced in.

The latest Reuters poll of >100 economists conducted 16th to 23rd Jan: probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months held steady from last month at 20% / chance of a recession in the next 2 years also steady at 40% / most likely see 2 Fed rate hikes in 2019.

U.S. economic growth will take a hit this quarter from the longest-ever government shutdown, keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until at least its April 30-May 1 meeting, a Reuters poll of economists showed.

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