Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY. – MT is sideways normal. Despite gaining everyday last week, the USD remains range bound. We are at the top of the internal range, but have room to go to key support at 97.70. A large bullish engulfing week has formed. Pundits put USD strength down to safe haven flows, but this justification seems a bit weak. Perhaps what we are seeing is a little of this but more a lack of strength in it’s counterparts. Things are not all rosy though. President Trump has said he will not meet with Chinese leader Xi as trade talks are not yet far enough ahead. There is still optimism a deal will get done, but we may see some brinkmanship ahead of the end of March deadline or perhaps see talks roll over into Q2. The US government may shutdown again next week, though watch out for Brinkmanship there too. There is a tendency for last minute deals in politics. Of course, Trump may declare a national emergency to get funding for a wall, and the government may stay open anyway. How will these things impact the USD? Perhaps the uncertainty will benefit the pair in coming weeks. I am low conviction on direction right now.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. In last weeks BOE meeting, rates were left on hold and downside risks were acknowledged. The Brexit drama continues along with no real progress. Market participants are still hopeful that there will be an extension to the Brexit deadline coming up at the end of March.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. JPY remained robust despite the rising USD. This suggests some nervousness in the market. We are entering into a sideways quiet MT. Price action suggests a break above 110.00 is tradeable, but it would be lower conviction for me, considering the weakness in US bonds.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Big picture price action suggest upside potential in the pair. But this is not mirrored by the fundamentals. The RBA was decidedly dovish (after clarification) and the pair is now trading near the bottom of the range. Iron Ore prices have been rising. I would be looking for a move back towards 0.70 before considering buying.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. EUR continues to struggle with weak data. This is keeping sentiment towards the pair depressed. We remain within the long-term range. Watch our for support at 1.13.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The price action is not supporting it just yet, but the Kiwi has some of the better fundamentals. Dairy prices were up over 6%, after being up over 4% in the prior auction. Employment data came in on the weak side, but this is not a trend. The economy should be supported by government spending in 2019. If we get down to 0.66 then that could be a buying opportunity.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT sideways volatile. The price is sitting right on the key 1.0 figure. I don’t have much conviction in direction just now. Wait.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. It was a rough week for CAD after oil rejected the breakout through the key $55 level and formed a weekly bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This is indicative of more weakness in oil. Employment data was the bright spot with a large gain. This did not translate into any sustained momentum for the pair. Wait for now.
- Sell EUR/GBP. – MT is bear normal. Price action is bearish but I would not hang my hat on this. Low conviction sell.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell AUD/CAD. – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Wait USDSGD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Wait USDCNH. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Buy Gold. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait Oil. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait
- Buy S&P 500. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait DAX. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Sell Nikkei. – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.