Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY. – MT is sideways normal. The USD remains well contained within the weekly sideways quiet MT. The price has moved towards the middle of the range, suggesting a breakout is not yet imminent. There is little change in the the fundamentals with the Fed remaining patient and US data generally better than its global counterparts. Trade talks with China continue in a positive fashion. Bond yields are recovering. In this market, like the Fed, we need to remain patient too. It’s a short week with the Easter Holiday.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. A six month Brexit extension was granted by the EU. This did not move the markets much. For us it is now safe to look at trading GBP again with the outlier event avoided. I prefer to buy GBP vs. EUR, unless we get back towards 1.25.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Risk on is pushing the pair higher with positive news on the Chinese economy and trade talks boosting sentiment. US stocks are rising on good earnings data. Note, there is a little resistance at 112, but otherwise I suspect we will be heading towards 114.
- Buy AUD/USD. – MT is bull normal. The Aussie is breaking out of the sideways quiet MT it has been stuck in for three weeks. There is a little resistance at .72, but with metal prices up, the RBA slightly less dovish than expected, and positive risk sentiment further upside should not surprise. I do expect that if we get up towards 0.73 or 0.74 the sellers will return. We need not forget that the RBA may well cut rates later in the year.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The EUR has recovered from the low. This is despite dovish ECB minutes. The rise in both EURUSD and USDJPY smacks of risk-on. Data remains relatively weak and unless that turns around any upside should be temporary. Technically, there is space for a rise back to 1.1450 or 1.1550. Watch out for PMI data this coming week.
- Sell NZD/USD. – MT is bear normal. There is some bullish price action here and we are sitting just above support. The key driver at the moment is the RBNZ and there is a chance of a rate cut next month. Ideally, we need the bearish momentum to resume before shorting the pair.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT sideways normal. The recovery in stocks and USD strength has seen the pair recapture the key 1.0 level. Importantly, EURCHF has found support. Wait for now.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways quiet. Despite the rising oil price the pair is well ensconced in a sideways quite MT. Bigger picture the uptrend is intact. Canadian data is mixed. Best to wait, with an upside breakout through 1.35 favored.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is bear normal. The pair is trapped in a range between 0.8730 and 0.8480. Volatility has died down a bit. In this MT selling from the top of the range makes sense.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal.
- Buy AUD/JPY. – MT is bull normal.
- Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal.
- Buy EUR/JPY. – MT is bull normal.
- Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal.
- Buy EUR/NZD. – MT is bull normal.
- Buy AUD/NZD. – MT is bull normal.
- Sell EUR/AUD. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell GBP/AUD. – MT is bear normal.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal.
- Sell NZD/CAD. – MT is bear normal.
- Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal.
- Sell NZD/CHF. – MT is bear normal.
- Buy AUD/CHF. – MT is bull normal.
- Wait Gold. – MT is sideways normal.
- Buy Oil. – MT is bull normal.
- Buy S&P 500. – MT is bull normal.
- Buy DAX. – MT is bull normal.
- Buy Nikkei. – MT is bull normal.
- Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways normal.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.