Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY. – MT is sideways normal. After rejecting the high at 97.70, we can expect the downside momentum to persist. This week, the Fed is likely to affirm their patient status. Data has been weaker including a slip in inflation so there is no need for the Fed to be in any hurry to hike rates this year. US bond yields remain weak. Uncertainty still exists around US China trade talks with no resolution as yet. It will not be until April at the earliest that a deal can get done. I would suggest selling for a move towards 95.00
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. It was a volatile week, with a number of Brexit votes. The volatility may continue this week, with a 3rd meaningful Brexit vote expected possibly on Tuesday. The UK will be asking the EU for an extension to the exit date. This is likely to be granted but we are not sure for how long yet. Wait for now and see if the pair can hold above 1.33.
- Buy USD/JPY. – MT is bull normal. The BOJ remains very dovish. Stocks rose last week and are pressing against the high. Watch for a reversal in stocks. Bond yields are weakening which is USD bearish. Lower conviction buy.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. There is a 50% chance of a rate cut priced in by the market. Westpac believes that this is likely to occur later in the year rather than earlier. The delay in trade talks between the US and China does not help the Aussie. Nor does the weaker domestic or Chinese data.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The EUR has bounced off the key 1.12 support level. Data remains tepid and there are a variety of risks, not the least of which is Brexit. But sentiment is bearish USD at the moment so we can expect the pair to continue to rise.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Fundamentally, the Kiwi looks to be one of the better options. Dairy prices have been rising. We can expect support from government spending in 2019. Technically, the pair lacks direction. My heart goes out to our Muslim brothers and sisters whom were victims of the terror attack in Christchurch. While I am not living in NZ at the moment, I went to school in Christchurch and I have married into a Muslim family (in Singapore). This attack strikes very close to home and we are deeply shocked by it.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT sideways normal. Despite rising stocks, USDCHF has weakened. We can expect the pair to break below the key 1.00 figure and head towards 0.99.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. CAD has benefited from divergent employment data and rising oil in the past week. But US/ Canada yields are not supportive of further CAD strength. Best to wait.
- Sell EUR/GBP. – MT is bear normal. The pair remains in a bear MT, but given the ongoing brexit volatility, trading is comes with a fair degree of risk. It may be best to wait to see if GBPUSD can hold above 1.33 this week.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell AUD/NZD. – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is bull normal. Wait.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy GBP/CHF. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Sell CAD/CHF. – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Sell Gold. – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Buy Oil. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Wait S&P 500. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Buy DAX. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
View bank reports and fundamental analysis in the chatroom (members only)
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.