Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 7 October 2019

-edited

Here is Massimiliano's Market Type Analysis for the week ahead

  • Wait DXY. – MT is bull normal. In the US while the overall economy is still growing, the month of September saw a decline in PMI numbers. The ISM Manufacturing report hit a 10year low and the services sector showed a pace of expansion which was slower than expected. Unemployment fell to 3.5%, a level not seen since December 1969, but wage growth was flat which could be interpreted as a sign that the strong labour market might be weakening. As a result, in the past week the Dollar Index failed to break through the September 3 High and is now trading just below 99. In the coming week CPI data, FMOC meeting minutes and quite a bit of Fed speak will fuel speculation on whether the Fed will cut rates again at the next meeting due end of October. In the meantime, a new round of high-level US/China trade negotiations will be taking place in Washington. An interim deal, if there was one, could be Dollar supportive as the uncertainty caused by the trade war is seen as the main factor influencing the recent slow-down in manufacturing activity.
  • Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. After stalling and consequently reversing at the resistance zone around 1.25 the pound has now found support just above 1.22. To re-activate our bullish bias we would like to see the pair trading again above 1.24. Weaker inflation and disappointing retail sales figures are showing that the protracted political drama is having a real impact on the economy and recent PMI data confirmed that all sectors of the economy are now in contraction territory. Aside from developments on a possible Brexit deal which remain the main driver, in the coming week we have the release of GDP figures.
  • Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. The shift in sentiment initially spurred by the easing in geopolitical tensions early last month seems to have now abated with the pair closing the week trading just below 107 and forming an inside bar. Whilst we still have a bullish bias, the break of the inside period could lead to either direction.
  • Wait AUD/USD. – MT is bear normal. The fundamentals still remain mostly negative for Australia with the only bright spot being the domestic real estate market for established dwellings. Following this past week’s rate cut the Aussie has now put in place a fourth rejection of 0.67 indicating that the pair might have found a bottom. However, we don’t see a catalyst to justify a turn in sentiment yet so we’d rather wait and see if the pair can manage to trade above 0.68 before re-evaluating our bias.
  • Sell EUR/USD. MT is bear normal. Whilst conditions remain dire for the European economy the Euro managed to gain ground over the greenback in four out of the past five sessions, likely helped by the less than solid PMI data out of the US. After finding support at 1.09 the pair seems to be stalling at 1.10 and with the downtrend still in place there is an opportunity to re-join at current levels. This week the minutes of the September ECB meeting will be published and whether they indicate that further easing measures are on their way it seems that the delivery of fiscal stimulus on the part of politicians could be a more effective path toward recovery.
  • Sell NZD/USD. MT is bear normal. The economic outlook for New Zealand continues to remain weak with business confidence plunging lower. As it is the case with Australia, the only positive sign is a pick-up in turnover in the housing market. The corrective bounce which occurred on the back of easing geopolitical tensions early last month was sold off aggressively from resistance at 0.645 and has now found support at 0.62. A continuation of the downtrend is the most likely scenario.
  • Wait USD/CHF. – MT is bull normal. The Swissie has failed to close above parity four times this week. We might see a bit more consolidation before the pair finally breaks above 1.00. Whilst above 0.985 we maintain a bullish bias.
  • Wait USD/CAD. – MT is bull normal. Market type for the Loonie turned from sideways to bull normal after it broke out of the narrow trading range it had been in for more than 2 weeks, perhaps helped by a fall in the price of oil. The move though now seems to be stalling at the August resistance levels. While we are generally bullish USD, we don’t have any strong view here at the moment. Next Friday we will see the release of Employment figures just ahead of the Canadian Thanksgiving long weekend.
  • Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. The Market Type has change from bearish to sideways. Whilst we maintain a longer-term bearish bias we might now see the pair moving sideways. This past week the net movement was only 3 pips.

Crosses

  • Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is bear normal.
  • Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait GBP/JPY. MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait EUR/JPY. MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is bear normal.
  • Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is bear normal.
  • Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is bull normal.
  • Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is bull normal.
  • Wait AUD/CAD. MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait GBP/CAD. MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait CAD/CHF. MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait NZD/CHF. MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait AUD/CHF. MT is sideways normal.

Other Markets

  • Wait Gold. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Wait Oil. – MT is bear normal.
  • Wait S&P 500. – MT is bear normal.
  • Wait DAX. – MT is bear normal.
  • Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways normal.
  • Buy T-Notes. – MT is bull normal.
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