There wasn’t any market moving news on the weekend – so it should be a quiet start to another volatile week with a pivotal Brexit vote due on Tuesday and Q3 US earnings season kicking off.
Themes for the Week:
USD: US government shutdown (no resolution in sight, and there is an increasing probability that Trump will declare a state of national emergency), trade negotiations with Japan/EU/UK/China, Q3 Earnings (Citigroup Monday, Wells Fargo and JPM Tuesday, Blackrock, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Alcoa on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley Thursday, . The bar is set low regarding earnings expectations so there may be a relief rally in risk assets if we see surprizes. We will also get some Fedspeak out.
GBP: It could be a volatile week for the GBP, as UK Parliament votes on UK May’s Brexit plan. The plan is unlikely going to get enough support to pass, but what happens next is highly uncertain. Analysts expect May to obtain some assurances from the EU and reveal them at the last moment (Monday?) to maximize the impact. The reactions from DUP/ERG will then give us the best expectations regarding Tuesday’s vote.
Data in the Week Ahead:
- UK CPI & Retail Sales
- US Retail Sales
- CAD CPI
On the Radar:
Crude Oil (long), Eur (short) vs. Aud, Nzd, Cad are the only things on the watchlist currently. I will be paying close attention to the Pound on Brexit news, and also to equities based on what Q3 earnings season brings. Last week we didn’t have much convinction in stocks, with prices printing a small range week, so I’m not too convinced either way and prefer to wait for stronger momentum.
About the Author
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