Over the weekend, UK PM May made progress towards getting her deal approved. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is close to changing its position for the first time after receiving a promise that the government would put into law a requirement that there be no divergence between Northern Ireland and Britain. It's still all up in the air, but the chances are roughly even now between May's deal (finally) being accepted, and a No-Deal Brexit. GBP may get a lift into the week on this news.
Themes for the Week ahead:
- Brexit will continue to dominate headlines as reported above.
- Beyond that, the FOMC will be the next most important driver, with no change in rates or statement. Traders will instead watch the economic projections and dot plot along with any update on when and how much the Fed will reduce its balance sheet. The markets are expecting more of the same cautious/dovish tone, so the USD could pop on any neutral or balanced surprize.
- The Bank of England also meets this week and they too are expected to remain on hold. All UK data will probably be overshadowed by Brexit talks.
- US/China trade wars will also remain on the radar. Positive news was reported on Friday however.
Data in the Week Ahead:
- RBA minutes
- UK employment change
- UK CPI
- NZ GDP
- AU Employment Change
- UK Retail Sales
- CAD Retail Sales
- CAD CPI
On the Radar:
As of Friday's close, the clearest opportunities remain outside of FX: US equities (long), Dax (Long), Crude Oil (long). In FX, the only thing in play is GBP but if you do dare touch it, trade small and go for intraday targets given the wild swings that can happen. EurGbp shorts and GbpUsd longs seem like the best of the pack.
About the Author
Justin is a Forex trader and Coach. He is co-owner of www.fxrenew.com, a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial), or get FREE access to the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders. If you like his writing you can subscribe to the newsletter for free.