I have been kicking myself for listening to Chris Martenson's continual call for an imminent market collapse for the last 8 years. I've missed out on so much gains by being out of the stock market and in precious metals, miners, and cash. So what do I do now? Do I stay out of the stock market, and see if Chris will be proven right? Or, do I jump in and buy index funds like most everyone else and assume the markets will continue to rocket upwards?
I hear you John. I don't know Chris' work, but those negative stories resonate more with me, so it is more difficult to stay long. Many of Mish's postings have the same impact on me.
Casinos are for professional gamblers only.
Mike Mish Shedlock
I do podcasts with Chris Martenson all the time. I do not believe he has been calling for an imminent collapse. Neither have I. In fact, I warned against the idea when Stockman had a service based on that. It's true Chris and I think the market is extremely overvalued.
Thanks dr hot dog,
Yea, Chris has been predicting a major crash since the 8 years I have been reading his site. His analysis is very thorough and compelling, yet always turns out to be wrong. He is the main reason I have stayed out of the market. While i'm disappointed that I lost a lot of potential gains in the past, I am now more concerned with the future.
Is Chris just wrong on his timing, and we are headed for a big crash soon, or are the central banks more powerful than he sees, and the markets will continue rocketing upwards for years?
Is it time now to enter the market, or stay on the sidelines?
Chris Martenson isn't wrong he's just premature. The problem with applying analysis to the current market is that fundamentals have to be native or indigenous. Its not real anymore when central banks just print money, computer systems goose the stock exchange and banks payroll illiquid little old ladies to buy condos. Analysis today is about following the bluster of the establishment. In other words, waiting on every word that Yellen or Draghi has to say and burying heads in the sand to stay positively invested. So it's no longer a question of whether the economy and markets will crash it's a question of just how long everyone associated with the modern central banking cartel can keep air in a leaky balloon. Looking at Japan which after 20 years is still ticking, and southern Europe after 10 years swirling the drain but never quite drowning in debt, one is led to believe that we're going to be stagnating for a long while yet. That just assumes our monetary overlords don't make a mistake. In other words invest in it but hedge like crazy.
Good points pgp,
Chris firmly believes a big crash is coming soon. One thing I wonder about is if interest rates go up, and the bond market goes down, could trillions of dollars from the bond market flow into the stock market, keeping it going up for a long time?
It seems doubtful interest rates will ever really go up. Low interest and yields are here to stay forever. The FED's rate hikes are a token gesture and more about sentiment manipulation or sentiment preservation. The crash can only happen once that sentiment breaks. Perhaps when our commercial news mouthpieces and economic "experts"/leaders finally lose credibility. Since governments everywhere are heavily invested in labelling populist web sites like zero-hedge as purveyors of fake news that credibility seems to be well protected for the time being.
I find that most people believe what the media and government tells them, with very little independent thinking. It's hard to imagine that this will ever change.
Good points, Dr. Hot Dog,
So what do I do going forward? Buy passive etf's like everyone else, or buy individual stocks? Or, stay out of stocks like I have been, and beat myself up for losing so much $$?
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Talk of 50% crashes may very well represent rational beliefs, but the market doesn't care. On the other hand, things that cannot go on forever will stop.
I look at our monetary and banking system and at our public debt and it all seems crazy to me. I have no idea why investors think everything is ok. Did they really fix everything by nationalizing Fannie and Freddie and bailing out the banks? I don't think so. Ultimately it's our responsibility to listen to different opinions and make our own decision.