30-Year Bond Yield Just a Hair from Record Low, 2-10 Yield Spread Near Inversion

-edited

Bond yields resumed their post-FOMC crash today after a weak two-day respite. Inversions strengthened across the board.

Bond Yields Resume Post-FOMC Crash

Interestingly, the record low 30-year long bond yield was on July 8, 2016 shortly after the UK voted for Brexit (June 23, 2016).

Recession Warning

Bond yields scream "recession" loud and clear for the third time since 2000.

Not even two rate cuts will end this inversion.

Manufacturing Recession Underway, Full Recession Soon

A Global Manufacturing Recession is already underway and Trump's tariffs made matters worse.

History shows that full recessions followed manufacturing recessions within one quarter, six out of the last seven times.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (36)
No. 1-10
lol
lol

Print baby print lol......Federal govt is danger close to collapse/default.....think it can't happen?Printing tens of trillions to buy a few more years won't work,not this time,which means the fed will go full on banana republic and surely launch (overt) massive (biblical)levels of fresh money creation.....why......because they're outta options and they know it!

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Didn't Lacy Hunt (and Mish) say we would have one more "Last Hurrah" in the Treasury market before it all, inevitably goes to hell? Well, this may be it.

wootendw
wootendw

"Interestingly, the record low 30-year long bond yield was on July 8, 2016 shortly after the UK voted for Brexit (June 23, 2016)."

I musta missed that one. I do remember 2.19% not so many years ago and wanting to kick myself for not selling my TLT when it reversed.

UrbanDigs
UrbanDigs

Yeah, it's getting a bit dark out there

Lost_Anchor
Lost_Anchor

Its the Miami condo market circa 2005-06. Its a sure thing! You can't lose! Buy everything on spec, don't worry about the long term cost because you are going to flip the condo to another sucker before construction is completed.

Today, we have a government running trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. Debt way above their eyeballs. Yet there are condo flippers who think they can buy bonds from a derelict government and it will all work out. Its a sure thing! Bernanke assures us that the contagion in the Treasury market is well contained.

This time will not be different.