30-Year Bond Yield Just a Hair from Record Low, 2-10 Yield Spread Near Inversion

-edited

Bond yields resumed their post-FOMC crash today after a weak two-day respite. Inversions strengthened across the board.

Bond Yields Resume Post-FOMC Crash

Interestingly, the record low 30-year long bond yield was on July 8, 2016 shortly after the UK voted for Brexit (June 23, 2016).

Recession Warning

Bond yields scream "recession" loud and clear for the third time since 2000.

Not even two rate cuts will end this inversion.

Manufacturing Recession Underway, Full Recession Soon

A Global Manufacturing Recession is already underway and Trump's tariffs made matters worse.

History shows that full recessions followed manufacturing recessions within one quarter, six out of the last seven times.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (36)
No. 1-10
lol
lol

Print baby print lol......Federal govt is danger close to collapse/default.....think it can't happen?Printing tens of trillions to buy a few more years won't work,not this time,which means the fed will go full on banana republic and surely launch (overt) massive (biblical)levels of fresh money creation.....why......because they're outta options and they know it!

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Didn't Lacy Hunt (and Mish) say we would have one more "Last Hurrah" in the Treasury market before it all, inevitably goes to hell? Well, this may be it.

wootendw
wootendw

"Interestingly, the record low 30-year long bond yield was on July 8, 2016 shortly after the UK voted for Brexit (June 23, 2016)."

I musta missed that one. I do remember 2.19% not so many years ago and wanting to kick myself for not selling my TLT when it reversed.

UrbanDigs
UrbanDigs

Yeah, it's getting a bit dark out there

Lost_Anchor
Lost_Anchor

Its the Miami condo market circa 2005-06. Its a sure thing! You can't lose! Buy everything on spec, don't worry about the long term cost because you are going to flip the condo to another sucker before construction is completed.

Today, we have a government running trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. Debt way above their eyeballs. Yet there are condo flippers who think they can buy bonds from a derelict government and it will all work out. Its a sure thing! Bernanke assures us that the contagion in the Treasury market is well contained.

This time will not be different.

Greggg
Greggg

Here we go... NIRP and then watch them go cashless so that everybody is trapped into bail-ins.

Greggg
Greggg

Interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKpQxoJaxF4

George199999
George199999

Very usefull info. What causes the yield curve to go back up sharpely. I think in another story you said that was the real trigger for recession.

Also what happens if teh yield curve stays negative for years ? (can it)?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

If we get lower rates and removal of tariffs in the second half of this year, I predict no recession in 2020 and a Trump re-election by slim margins. Growth in fact may head back to 3% come election season. That is bad news for Democrats.

Herkie
Herkie

Just woke to see the 2 has gone past the 10, as I type they are the same yield, next up the 3 month is only 4 basis points away from the 30 year. Market to open at least 400 points lower. The PPT is going to have it's hands full today.