30-Year Bond Yield Just a Hair from Record Low, 2-10 Yield Spread Near Inversion

-edited

Bond yields resumed their post-FOMC crash today after a weak two-day respite. Inversions strengthened across the board.

Bond Yields Resume Post-FOMC Crash

Interestingly, the record low 30-year long bond yield was on July 8, 2016 shortly after the UK voted for Brexit (June 23, 2016).

Recession Warning

Bond yields scream "recession" loud and clear for the third time since 2000.

Not even two rate cuts will end this inversion.

Manufacturing Recession Underway, Full Recession Soon

A Global Manufacturing Recession is already underway and Trump's tariffs made matters worse.

History shows that full recessions followed manufacturing recessions within one quarter, six out of the last seven times.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (36)
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Greggg
Greggg

Here we go... NIRP and then watch them go cashless so that everybody is trapped into bail-ins.

Greggg
Greggg

Interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKpQxoJaxF4

George199999
George199999

Very usefull info. What causes the yield curve to go back up sharpely. I think in another story you said that was the real trigger for recession.

Also what happens if teh yield curve stays negative for years ? (can it)?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

If we get lower rates and removal of tariffs in the second half of this year, I predict no recession in 2020 and a Trump re-election by slim margins. Growth in fact may head back to 3% come election season. That is bad news for Democrats.

Herkie
Herkie

Just woke to see the 2 has gone past the 10, as I type they are the same yield, next up the 3 month is only 4 basis points away from the 30 year. Market to open at least 400 points lower. The PPT is going to have it's hands full today.