46 Million People in 16 Chinese Cities Now Locked In

Mish

46 million people in 16 Chinese cities are locked in with travel bans due to the deadly coronavirus.

Locked In

China Lock Down Comparison

S&P Falls After Possible Third U.S. Case

Bloomberg reports S&P Falls After Possible Third U.S. Case

U.S. lawmakers said health authorities are expected to confirm a third case of coronavirus in the U.S., following a closed-door briefing between lawmakers in Washington and federal health officials. Senators John Barrasso of Wyoming and Josh Hawley of Missouri said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told lawmakers about the new case at the briefing. The CDC earlier Friday announced a second case, in Illinois, and has said it expects more to emerge as it monitors more than 60 people.

U.S. federal and local health authorities are monitoring more than 60 people as they attempt to catch new cases of coronavirus in travelers from China, where the outbreak is centered. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed a second case in Illinois Friday.

The Illinois patient developed symptoms after returning from Wuhan, China. The woman, in her 60s, is in stable condition and has been isolated in a hospital to try and avoid infecting more people, said Jennifer Layden, chief medical officer and state epidemiologist for the Illinois Department of Public Health. She didn’t have close contact with people outside her home after her return, and authorities haven’t seen symptoms in others associated with her.

The virus has an incubation period of about two weeks before infected people start to show symptoms, which resemble a cold or flu, the CDC said. U.S. authorities have screened more than 2,000 travelers from China on 200 flights without identifying any new patients.

China’s Unproven Antiviral Solution: Quarantine of 40 Million

Please consider China’s Unproven Antiviral Solution: Quarantine of 40 Million

The effectiveness of attempting to cordon off the epicenter of the disease -- an area of roughly 40 million people -- will probably be scrutinized far into the future.

“The containment of a city hasn’t been done in the history of international public health policy,” said Shigeru Omi, who headed the World Health Organization’s Western Pacific Region during the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s. “It’s a balance between respecting freedom of movement of people, and also prevention of further disease and public interest. It’s not a simple sort of thing; it’s very complex.”

Some argue the authorities may have had no choice, since certain patients appear to have milder symptoms that can go undetected, allowing them to unwittingly spread the disease. Saturday also marks the start of the Lunar New Year holiday, when more than 500 million trips by plane and rail may be taken within and out of China.

It’s a tremendous legal, institutional, not to mention logistical challenge, but it’s an authoritarian state with a top leader who happens to have centralized power,” said Yanzhong Huang, director of the Center for Global Health Studies at Seton Hall University.

In modern times, quarantines have yielded limited results. A study in the Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology determined Toronto’s use of quarantine wasn’t effective in slowing SARS. An impoverished neighborhood in Liberia quarantined during an Ebola outbreak in 2014 responded with violent riots.

Estimated Cases

China Virus Overwhelms Wuhan’s Health System

The Wall Street Journal reports China Virus Overwhelms Wuhan’s Health System, as City Rushes to Build New Hospital

China’s viral outbreak is straining the resources of front-line hospital staff in epidemic-stricken Wuhan, who have been forced to turn away patients because of a lack of beds and basic medical supplies.

Hospitals throughout Hubei province, home of the vast majority of the confirmed cases, posted messages on social media in recent days pleading for donated supplies as panicked consumers emptied store shelves of face masks and hand sanitizer.

There’s a shortage of medical supplies, help!!!” the Wuhan Children’s Hospital posted Thursday on China’s Twitter-like Weibo service.

Local businessman Xiang Dong, 52 years old, said he had visited five major hospitals across Wuhan on Thursday, all with massive crowds and hourslong waits.

Screening Starts at Chicago O'Hare Airport

By the time symptoms are spotted in others it's too late to stop the spreading.

The woman in Chicago, now confirmed, arrived 11 days ago.

ZeroHedge comments "This Time I'm Petrified": Virologist Who Helped Discover SARS Offers Chilling Take On Coronavirus Outbreak

What is One to Do?

Quarantine the entire country? Ban all incoming travel from China?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (70)
No. 1-24
Latkes
Latkes

Apparently, the solution is to panic and behave stupidly. Going to hospital just because you have a fever is stupid. Standing in line for a face mask is stupid.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Three cases in the US!

OMG!!!!

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Food preparation in China isn't exactly sanitary. Is it any wonder these viruses like SARS, MERS and now Coronavirus all start in China. When you have portions of a country that will eat anything that moves, it isn't surprising you get some quick mutations that put a bunch of people in the hospital. Just guessing that coronavirus will end up being like SARS or MERS was in the US. It may get some people sick and even put them in the hospital but few will die of it. China has a lot of problems.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

3 cases in the USA!!! Trump must declare national emergency Now! Oh OMG, the sky has Is falling!

RonJ
RonJ

"S&P Falls After Possible Third U.S. Case"

Which is stronger? FED Not QE or a corona virus? Inquiring minds want to know.

FloydVanPeter
FloydVanPeter

The CCPP response doesn't seem to match the official numbers.

However: The virus is presumably highly contagious, like the common cold, but believed to be way more lethal (as 1-5% of cases).

FWIW (a little), I suspect that the number of cases is way understated. So, are the number of death, but not as much. Therefore, we will probably find out that the percentage of death is lower than perceived at this point.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

If no vaccine is available and 10% of those who are confirmed infected ultimately die (similar to SARS), then Corona Virus is definitely the winner versus Fed "not QE." Exactly how much shopping and eating out will people do while everyone is sick? How much disposable income will people have if they take unpaid extra time off work?

Regarding sarcastic remarks about 3 cases in the US not being a big deal; it is very early. Day before yesterday it was zero cases. Hopefully it will be stopped early over here, but that will actually require some hard work and care. We have awful habits in the US when it comes to communicable diseases. Everyone sends their kids to school sick. Everyone goes to work sick. Many people extend their hand to shake hands despite being sick. People think something is wrong with you if you wear an ear loop mask in public, despite that doing so probably helps protect the people not wearing a mask.

Remember the fist bump and then elbow bump public health campaigns that were meant to stop everyone from shaking hands? Hardly anyone actually does that.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"What is One to Do?"

...

Watch The Stand?

Zardoz
Zardoz

What a great time to have a b-list reality show star with dementia for a president!

thimk
thimk

I wish the Chinese well , whether this is a perceived crisis or real , the fear is genuine . Perhaps China will purchase more of USA ag products as a result. but 43 million Chinese can't get to work. China is the world's manufacturer. the economic effect will ripple globally. I like the new platform facelift .

Mish
Mish

Editor

We have a slightly different format now. Some of your defaults may have changed.
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Mish

Blurtman
Blurtman

Panicked Chinese citizens demand to be locked into Uighur detention camps.

moyerdere2
moyerdere2

Saw that the R0 of the corona virus is estimated to be 2. The normal flu that goes around has a R0 of 1.3. That means that this virus is more easily transmitted from person to person than the flu. Although the Spanish flu R0 was 2-3, so it seems it would be slightly less than that. It is also now confirmed in France.

Greggg
Greggg

4,000/11,000,000=.0003636 Is the Corona Virus really more of a test bed of their social credit system?

Knight
Knight

No amount of government can contain something like this. Best thing you can do is maintain your own health and be prepared for a situation where you may have to stay in your house for a couple months. Stay alert. Panic is not helpful to anyone.

AWC
AWC

TGIF,,,maybe this virus hype will take the weekend off.

Mish
Mish

Editor

There is no sidebar as before
Text and link darkness is a reported problem

Mish
Mish

Editor

page up and page down working for me on firefox and chrome. no scroll bar issues.

Anyone else having issues?

DeeDee3
DeeDee3

I think the patient surge and related panic as well as the outbreak is real. China will take very large economic losses from this locally (due to cancelled Lunar New Year) and internationally (evidenced by dropping stock prices there). I doubt they would impose these restrictions if there weren't a real problem.

mmc1968
mmc1968

Let's put what is happening in context against what happens with the common flu:

Influenza has already sickened at least 13 million Americans this winter, hospitalizing 120,000 and killing 6,600, according to the CDC. And flu season hasn’t even peaked. In a bad year, the flu kills up to 61,000 Americans.

Worldwide, the flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 people every year, according to the World Health Organization.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Financial media blames Friday's decline in US markets due to the virus, despite the 1.3% gain in the Germany DAX. I'm pretty sure Europeans are flying to China, and Chinese are flying to Europe. A virus can't simultaneously hurt one market and help another; do financial journalists never gave their writing any thought.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

There are richer countries. But it is pathetic how poor hygiene is in Asia after so many centuries of existence. I know because I am Asian and was born there. America is certainly superior in hygiene.

Sechel
Sechel

My big concern here is I don't think the Administration is up to the task should the situation in the U.S. escalate


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