50,000 New Coronavirus Infections Per Day in China

Mish

Prof. Neil Ferguson, Vice Dean Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College in London, estimates 50K new infections per day.

Please consider the following video by Prof. Neil Ferguson.

10 Key Video Points

  1. 50,000 new cases a day in china
  2. Infections doubling every 5 days
  3. Death rate is still unknown
  4. China likely to peak in March
  5. Epidemic peak is still a month away
  6. It will be very hard to control this epidemic the say way we did with SARS 15-20 years ago
  7. Cases are always underestimated
  8. Death delays are as long as three weeks
  9. Reported deaths outside China are not reassuring because of delays
  10. We still don't know the full effects

Tweet on Containment Strategies

Jim Bianco's Latest Update

Africa Cases Coming

61 Cases on Cruise Ship

Stop the Ridiculous Flu Comparisons

People are still comparing this outbreak with the flu.

Stop already!

60 million people are locked up in China, in their homes. One person is allowed out every three days.

For comparison purposes, the state of california has about 40 million people. Illinois has 13 million. Michigan has 10 million.

So imagine everyone in CA, IL, and MI being locked in their houses, unable to leave other than to buy groceries every three days.

And if you think the reported death count is accurate given 60 million lockups with infections growing by 50,000 per day, you need to think again.

Panic in China

Yesterday, I commented China in State of Panic as Coronavirus Death Toll Rises

Locked In, Literally

📷

China is forcing people into quarantine camps, restricting movement, locking people in their homes (literally), demanding daily temperatures updates from everyone, and now bitching about about travel restrictions of other countries.

Unfortunately, things look to get worse for at least a few more weeks.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (78)
No. 1-19
silvermitt
silvermitt

If China wants to retain any scrap of credability, they'll confess just how bad this has gotten, and provide whatever advancement, if any, to figuring out how to stop this, or at least contain it. So far, no one with a brain believes them.

Matrix
Matrix

Nature is trying to balance things out. Nature will win in the end.

ksdude69
ksdude69

So I guess i'm not sure how you would actually come to the conclusion it will peak in march based on current projections? Also, it's just a model doesn't mean it will be accurate. Plus peak doesn't mean it still wont be spreading it just wont be spreading as fast.

Does anyone know if the warmer spring weather will stop this stuff from going around? That could be good for those of us in the US if that's the case because we will have warmer temps before it gets going. What happens next winter remains to be seen.

One things for sure, there will be economic ripples. We'll probably know a lot more in a few weeks the way evidence is mounting.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Given it will be warmer in the northern hemisphere soon viruses in general will continue to get stronger. The optimal ambient temperature for viruses to flourish at your nose is 72 degrees. A longer flu season is expected this year because both A and B strains being prevalent for the first time since 2005. That year I had my mother and brother in law in the hospital due to the flu. Hang on to your helmets.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

This is why you shouldn't eat bats or other disease carrying rodents. I talked recently to someone who visited Wuhan markets where they sold animals. They don't care if you keep it as a pet or consume it.

Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat

So we short everything, right?

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

Mish, seems you might have been correct about the "deathatoriums." Dailymail has a story today that says China is forcing all suspected cases and close contacts into those venues along with the sick. I don't know why China would do that unless they do not have the capability to test everyone and it is a desperate attempt to stop the spread. Even so, it sounds like a terrible plan. Are members of China's military going to force people they love into those places at gunpoint? Surely some people who believe they are healthy are going to fight that order to the death.

wootendw
wootendw

"60 million people are locked up in China, in their homes. One person is allowed out every three days."

That Chinese government 'cure' is worse than the disease. Everyone will be dead from starvation, malnutrition, or poverty. Better to let the virus go now that it's 'out there'. Individuals should deal with it, or escape from it, in their own way rather than become dependent on government.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Trump is having an investigation into whether coronavirus is naturally occurring or bio-engineered. Good question, I'm sure we would all like to have a definitive answer to that. Maybe the dems will try to block that, like they do with everything else Donald tries to do. Surely it must be RACIST! or something like that.

Rbm
Rbm

This week in virology(podcast) is a good source of info on this

Stuki
Stuki
  • Up to 50,000 a day.....

  • Peak in the epicenter, Wuhan in a month. China overall, a month or two later..... The rest of the world, ???

Those up to 50,000 includes everyone. Who looks to have a "a wide variety" of symptoms. People experiencing "light respiratory discomfort," isn't really a public health issue. Spending masssive resources on diagnosing an up to 50,000, and growing, number of people a day, who just happen to cough during flu season, just isn't viable. Nor particularly useful, for anything more than perhaps obtaining slightly better estimates to plug into models which will still remain highly uncertain.

If, as he insinuates, there is up to 3 week delays before heavy symptoms, including death; we're still 1 1/2 to 2 weeks away from having anything to go by, wrt people thought to be infected away from the now infamous Wet Market itself. So far, that cohort seems to be doing just fine....

Which, of course, matters somewhere between very little and not at all, until those 1 1/2 to 2 weeks are up, assuming his estimates for time from infection to conclusive outcome is about right. But just as brushing the whole thing off, just because people aren't (yet) dropping lilke flies all over China and the World, is no doubt irresponsible; so is the morbid fascination with outbidding one another for who can come up with the direst predictions, and throw around the most wild eyed accusations against everyone and his uncle, which is what seems to be the fad du jour on the interwebs these days.

So far, this is just a novel virus which has killed a bunch of people in Wuhan, a few in Wuhan's immediate surroundings, as well as a very few Wuhanites abroad. Something which, as novel virus outbreaks go, is pretty much expected. But, again, that picture may change dramatically for the worse over the next week or two. Or it may not. Until those two weeks are up, this is just another one of those things which noone really knows much at all about.

EntrrUsername
EntrrUsername

Even if China's numbers are wrong, 50k per day with it doubling every few days seems way out of proportion.

And if that's really the case, then why isn't this news more widespread? 50k per freaking day shouldn't be treated like there truely is only 30k affected overall. Not sure why Neil was so normal when delivering this.

Greggg
Greggg

Whinnie the Pooh and the CCP is only a handful of people compared to the rest of China, 1.4 billion. How do you stop 1.4 billion people that are pissed of at you. That has got to eating at the top tyrannical dogs.

BoneIdle
BoneIdle

Those cruise ships are going to be a very interesting little test case for the epidemiologists.

Anybody feel like going on a cruise around Asia right now?

I wonder how the cancellations are going with the cruise companies?

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

At the rate of 50,000 per day, it would take ~80 years to infect the whole population of China. Such is the staggering size of the population. Perhaps nature has had enough.

thimk
thimk

"When America Sneezes, the World Catches Cold" . Perhaps that phrase should be updated to include China. /s

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

It all depends upon how well or poorly their quarantine protocols do. It's simply too soon to say. But in a month or two, it will be clear if this is becoming a worldwide pandemic or not. Right now, although perfectly reasonable to try to figure out what's going on, there's just not enough of a clear data record to go on.

Aristuttle
Aristuttle

I'm a physicist, not an epidemiologist, but I've done a simple model for the epidemic, and this is consitent with it. The Chinese tipped their hand by revealing the rate of increase of infections to be 18% day to day. That implies a doubling rate of 3.85 days (not 6.2 or even 5).
There are 4 independent measures of the real level of total infections: Grabiel Leung, Lancet, the 'under observation' number, and the Tencent 'slip up'. And they are all consistent if you correct for their dates.
starting with paitient zero on Dec 1 2019 to day 70 (Feb 8), my model predicts there are now 269,559 infections, with a daily increase of 53,380. If the duration of contagiousness is 21 days, R0 is 3.86.
With reported deaths of 724, we have 31,722 deaths "baked into the cake", people who are sick now, but will eventuall die. The mortality rate is 10.7%, very close to SARS. But NOBODY believes those death totals.
If we take them up to 2000, the mortality rate goes up to 29% (MERS), inevitable deaths rise to 87,632.
By March 1st, there will be 10.8 Million infections, 24,497 actual deaths, with 1.6 million more inevitable deaths. With th higher death arate that jumps to 73196 actual deaths, and 3.2 million inevitable.

The model is very sensitive to the duration contagiousness. Reducing it quickly makes these numbers better. The quarantines will have that effect, reducing transmissions which will push these numbers out, but only by a few weeks.

Again, this is just my simple model with pretty rough inputs, so don't place any real trust in it. I really do want to be wrong about this.
A treatment regimen would be even more effective in reducing deaths. Perhaps the AIDS drugs can make a difference as well.

Hammeringtruth
Hammeringtruth

Coronavirus becoming serious threat: sehttps://youtu.be/0MGou2k2QVE


Global Economics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY