YouGov asked UK citizens what Brexit options they preferred that were "realistically possible".
- 40% want a hard Brexit or a Boris Johnson negotiated Brexit. I lump these together because it is a natural alliance that is going to happen. Remainers forced this alliance by blocking No Deal which in turn blocked any deal.
- 19% want to remain. These are primarily Liberal Democrats but rebel Tories and some from Labour want this outcome as well.
- 15% want a delay or a referendum. This group will splinter to a Remain or Customs union because a referendum is not going to happen. Any extension solves nothing.
- 12% want a customs union. This is the official Labour policy but Corbyn seems to give a different answer every day. Labout has huge divisions. Some in Labour want to remain, some want a referendum, and some prefer a hard Brexit. The Labour camp is more split than any other.
- 8% percent will not be happy no matter what happens.
- 5% Genuinely don't know.
- 2% support Theresa May's deal
The 15% supporting a delay or a referendum will have to make another choice (or get sucked into a Labour referendum promise that won't happen).
If so, the vote would likely be split between Remain or Customs Union. But throw it all in one bucket. Say give it all to the Liberal Democrats, a highly unlikely event. That would give the Liberal Democrats 34% vs the Tories 40% for a Tory Brexit Paty alliance. Labour would get smashed.
Apportion the 15% entirely to Labour and both Labour and the Liberal Democrats get smashed.
What Can Realistically Happen?
A whopping 72% believe no deal is possible. Only 7% (primarily delusional remainers) think that it isn't.
But what does "realistically possible" mean?
Is a 5% chance realistically possible? 1%? 10%?
The least likely options are a second referendum and passing Theresa May's deal straight up.
A short delay is possible. Johnson could conceivably agree to this in return for guaranteed early elections. But does that imply "realistically possible"?
No Deal is a 100% guaranteed option simply because it is the legal default. The 7% who think it is not realistic and the 21% who don't know simply are not thinking clearly.
Good News for Johnson
Recent polls are good news for Johnson.
They also reflect another amusing fact.
Remainers pushed Johnson into a stance in which he increasingly had to rule out a deal in favor of a hard "no deal" stance to win the support of Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party.
Meanwhile, please recall that 21 Tory remainers were outed. They will lose their seats in the next election.
I see no path for Labour or the Liberal Democrats to win unless they form a coalition. That seems unlikely given the Liberal Democrats dislike of Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit preference difference of their parties.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock