Australia's Budget Predictions vs. Reality

Every year, Australia’s politicians make the same promise. A graph of promises vs reality makes a farce of it all.

The above graph, courtesy of news.com.au, highlights the difference between government budget forecasts and what really happened.

Australia has not had a surplus since 2007-08 when the Rudd Government spent heavily to insulate the country’s economy against the global financial crisis.

Since then, successive governments have released estimates of when the budget would be returned to surplus but each year this date has been pushed further back.

The 2010-11 budget suggested Australia would be in surplus again in 2012-13 — five years ago.

The Turnbull Government now expects this to happen in 2020-21.

Here's a clue. It won't happen.

The key to budget forecasts is to not make them but brag about what happens, no matter what happens. Trump provides a perfect role model.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (8)
No. 1-8
Gasmire
Gasmire

Bullsh!t is the coin of the realm in politics. What else is new?

Stuki
Stuki

The ability to spend yet uncollected money is the problem. With the solution being to limit government to spend, in year A, what was collected in year A-1; whatever that may have been. No planning, no projections, no guesses, no lies. Just look in the lootbox, and count how much you have; then prioritize how to spend that.

RonJ
RonJ

"t won't happen." It's all a political game. Expanding debt is what grows the economy.

Realist
Realist

Not much new here. I’m not sure why Mish is focused on Australia so much,when they are in much better shape than the US debt wise. US govt debt per citizen: 63,000. Aus govt debt per citizen: 14,600 (US$).

KidHorn
KidHorn

The amount of debt doesn't matter as long as it's denominated in your currency. Japan has proven this.