Big Jump In Coronavirus Deaths Coming Up?

Mish

The pool of severe cases keeps rising. Most of the death counts will come from this pool.

According to Worldometers there are 11,298 coronavirus cases in serious or critical condition. There are 57,736 total cases. Those in serious or critical condition constitute 20% of cases.

Most of the deaths yet to come will start in the pool of serious or critical patients.

Logarithmic Charts

Worldometers provides an excellent set of linear and logarithmic charts but the latter is a much better way of visualizing slowdowns or accelerations.

The rates are decelerating but have not yet turned down.

Coronavirus Cases by Country

I added the color highlights in the last column.

2020-02-16 Updates

  1. 1 new case in the United Arab Emirates.
  2. 3 new cases in Singapore: a family member of a previously confirmed case and 2 persons linked to the Grace Assembly of God church, including a Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) serviceman.
  3. 1 new death in Taiwan: a 61-year-old man with no travel history abroad but - as a taxi driver - serving clients from Hong Kong, Macau and mainland China, who had underlying conditions (diabetes and hepatitis B).
  4. 2 new cases in Taiwan.
  5. 6 new cases in Japan.
  6. 1 new case in Hong Kong: 54-year-old man with no travel history and no known contacts with confirmed cases.
  7. 70 new cases onboard the cruise ship in Japan. Nearly 1 out of 10 passengers and crew (9.6%) have tested positive to the virus so far (355 cases out of 3,711 passengers and crew).
  8. 1 new case in South Korea: a 82-year-old South Korean man in Seoul, with no travel history to China.
  9. 166 new cases and 3 new deaths occurred outside of Hubei province in China on February 15, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China.

Casual Transmission

Points 2, 3, 6, and 8 involve casual (no travel or family member) transmission.

Point 7 show how easily the virus spreads on a cruise ship.

Mortality Rates

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients."

In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T} (where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

See Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate for more discussion.

Death Rate Comparison

Serious and Critical vs Deaths Over Time

I asked Worldometers for charts of serious and critical cases vs deaths over time.

I will post a chart if they answer.

Daily Death Growth Factor

Growth factor is the factor by which a quantity multiplies itself over time. The formula used is every day's deaths / deaths on the previous day. For example, a quantity growing by 7% every period (in this case daily) has a growth factor of 1.07.

A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas one between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline, with the quantity eventually becoming zero.

A growth factor below 1 (or above 1 but trending downward) is a positive sign, whereas a growth factor constantly above 1 is the sign of exponential growth.

The death rate dipped below 1.00 on February 1 (0.98), February 11 (0.90), and February 13 (0.84).

On the 14th the rate jumped backed up to 1.17.

Virus Probably With Us Beyond 2020

The above from Coronavirus Expert Opinions.

CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield says "I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we'll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don't understand this virus."

Also note Harvard Professor Says Global Coronavirus Pandemic is Likely

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (73)
abend237-04
abend237-04

So, if you come down with a serious case of this damn thing, your odds of dying are 1/6.76 versus 1/6 if you were playing Russian Roulette.

No. 1-17
St. Funogas
St. Funogas

For comparison, using this week's CDC numbers for the flu in the U.S., if you get a nasty enough case to get hospitalized, the mortality rate is 5.6%.

Estimates: 26 millions flu cases, 250K hospitalizations, 14K deaths.

RayLopez
RayLopez

Mish: "1 new case in South Korea: a 82-year-old South Korean man in Seoul, with no travel history to China." but as of 20 minutes ago, CNN reports: "Singapore has identified three new cases of the novel coronavirus, bringing the citywide total to 75 confirmed cases, the country's health ministry said. Two of the cases are linked to the Grace Assembly of God church, which is the largest community cluster of cases in Singapore.The third one is related to a separate case. <U> None of those patients have traveled to China recently, the ministry said </U>."

And let's not forget the story ZeroHedge got banned on Twitter for a few weeks ago, as reported by MishTalk, namely, that Covid-19 is an accidentally escaped bioweapon virus, has been confirmed as of today by an academic paper from Wuhan researchers, as reported on Daily Mail (UK). When this story goes mainstream watch for the gap down in the DJ-30 and the @realDonaldTrump tweets go ballistic, hopefully not literally. And btw, as per that article, the residents of Wuhan do not habitually eat "live bat" at the live meat market, the bat in question anyway living hundreds of miles away. Instead, the CH bioweapons lab that does use these type bats is a mere 300 yards from the live market... Figure it out yourself.

Latkes
Latkes

Recoveries were originally lower than deaths. They have been climbing steadily and there is no reason to believe that the current death/recovery or death/closed cases rate is meaningful

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

When a log chart shows a straight line, it means log growth proportional to 1-e^(Kt). The fact the curve is flattening is a good sign efforts to contain the virus are working.

Carl_R
Carl_R

On cases outside of China, if I added correctly, there are 781, of which 26 are in serious or critical condition. If 1/6 of those in serious or critical condition die, the CFR will be .6% when proper medical care is available. Obviously, the death rate will be much, much higher when if hospitals are overwhelmed, as they are/were in Wuhan.

Of course, that estimate is a minimum, and the real CFR will be higher because some of those not yet in serious or critical condition will end up there.

ksdude69
ksdude69

Why are we agreeing these graphs are good when we've been saying all along the data is wrong and under reported? If the data is no good, these graphs are no good.

Roadrunner12
Roadrunner12

"If panic is warranted, it will happen too late to do any good."

From the BBC article: Cornavirus: China and the Virus that threatens everything

"The best approach, most experts agree, is one based on transparency and trust, with good public information and proportionate, timely government action."

It is interesting to see the various govt responses to the coronavirus. In the States, Trump is telling the masses it is gone by April. Various other govts appear to be telling the populace that they should be getting ready and Britain is preparing its people for possible self isolation. Odd why no one is commenting on this.

Im sure in Canada and the US, it will only become an issue when it is an issue, and you can expect the least transparency and trust thereby ensuring a much more paniced scenario as compared to other countries.

Meanwhile check out the major papers in the UK

"The World Health Organisation advises countries to do in-depth investigations of at least the first 100 confirmed cases of any pandemic."

"But 'millions' of Britons with flu-like symptoms could be told by authorities to 'self-isolate' by staying at home for a fortnight if the UK's number of confirmed cases passes 100, the Sunday Telegraph has reported."

Google UK or Britain, self isolation and that looks to be the British response should the pandemic expand as it appears in all the major news sites.

eg

Greggg
Greggg

The problem with the closed cases; the statistic is not complete for medical analysis. There's 1. recovered, 2. dead, but there is a sub category of recovered called sequelae, which is recovered but with other lasting permanent complications.

tokidoki
tokidoki

Instead of focusing mainly on other countries, we should think about whether the numbers in the US look credible. It's been reported that a Japanese tourist who recently returned to Japan from Hawaii has tested positive for the virus. Additionally, he's infected at least one other person after his return according to JapanTimes.

During his vacation in Hawaii, he went into a resort (while already displaying symptoms) and it's not unreasonable to think that he came into contact with quite a few people. In fact, according to an article from the New York Times today, a person who thinks that he had come into contact with the person offered to self isolate himself but was instead told by the State of Hawaii to live his life normally.

So basically we are supposed to believe that the US is so awesome that person to person transmission can't happen here?

Also, when will a person in the US ever get tested for this? Let's say one displays flu like symptoms and go to the doctor, presumably he/she will answer NO to "have you ever been to China recently?'

KidHorn
KidHorn

Has anyone who is not oriental died?

njbr
njbr

With all of the rumors of "bio-weapon", how exactly does that make a difference now? What different response is necessary now? Do we bomb the Chinese for releasing a bio-weapon on their own population?

St. Funogas
St. Funogas

Here's Zero Hedge's latest smoking-gun piece. As usual, if you follow their links you discover it's BS. Why they're quoting a know-nothing politician is beyond me. He doesn't have a clue where it originated unless he was in on it.

Click on the Twitter link and you discover that the Wuhan Virology Lab memo wasn't forbidding workers from speaking about the "unknown pneumonia in Wuhan" because they have anything to do with it, but rather, "the spread of some improper, untrue words earlier on has sparked panic."

The article goes on to quote a study (but fails to provide a link) saying a group of scientists in China conclude the virus "probably" originated at a laboratory in Wuhan. There's more than one lab in the area. Some sort of a leak/escape of one of the many bat coronaviruses they study is not out of the question. One of our own BLS-4 labs was shut down last summer at Ft. Detrick, Maryland for failure to meet basic bio-safety standards. If you google "biosafety accidents in the U.S." you'll get plenty of hits including escaped mice.

Roadrunner12
Roadrunner12

4 Replies

Roadrunner12
Roadrunner12

What to think? Only elderly people die?

Also Dr Li, the doctor who warned others looked pretty young to me. Also of note, I believe he died 27 days or so after reporting symptoms.

JimmyScot
JimmyScot

In any epidemic, some young people die. The only thing we know about this one is that children don't...at least not so far.

60% of Chinese doctors smoke (against 3.3% in the US, 6.8% in the UK). Chinese smokers smoke 19 cigarettes a day on average (for comparison, it is about 10 in the UK). Combine that with air pollution and your average Chinese doctor is probably as healthier as your emphysemic grandmother.

Then add air pollution.

And the fact that even in normal times, Chinese doctors work on average 11 hours a day, 6 days a week.

Bluntly, I'm surprised they are living long enough for the virus to fell them.

St. Funogas
St. Funogas

Anybody who is compromised in any way is also more likely to die. Being overworked with very little sleep definitely qualifies are compromised.

Roadrunner12
Roadrunner12

Im sure you've seen the reports of nearly 2000 health professionals being infected by the Coronavirus. I hope your right because I am hoping that situation does not also transpire elsewhere making the treatment of infected even worse.

Update:

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martwal167
martwal167

I hope that there will be miracles, heal the broken heart is crying and sad. The sky is still divided night light right then we broke up already, so our love circle is like that.


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