Note: I changed the title of this post to reflect the live blog status. What follows is the results and my comments as posted in real time.
Exit Poll Results in Full
Translation - It's All Over
Why? It's a near certainty the exit polls are at least reasonable.
- Will Jeremy Corbyn resign in disgrace?
- How big will the final Tory Majority be?
Brexit Will Get Done
Congratulations Boris Johnson and the Tories for turning away an incompetent Marxist government led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Time For a Debt of Gratitude
I am going to treat this like a Live Blog and post updates.
Pertinent Ideas from Guardian Live
"The exit poll shows the Conservatives gaining 51 seats in total, but losing potentially 12 of their 13 seats in Scotland. That would suggest 64 gains in England and Wales, which – on an even swing – would mean Boris Johnson’s party smashing Labour’s so called ‘red wall’ running between the Vale of Clwyd in north Wales to Grimsby on the east coast."
That would really be something. I did expect Tories to do better in Scotland. On the whole though, I would rather Labour get smashed everywhere.
My "Fearless Forecast" had SNP picking up 5 from Labour and 1 from Tories.
My understanding is those Scotland exit polls are within the margin of error. So I do expect Labour to be totally wiped out. Expecting now for Tories to only hold 1-6. My guess now 4 or 5. No supporting evidence. Just a hunch, and 7 would not be a surprise.
Blyth Valley Turns Blue
"The Tories have won the Blyth Valley seat from Labour for the first time since its creation in 1950."
Unless stated otherwise, quotes are from Guardian Live.
Reason for Fearless Forecast
Comment of the Day
I do not agree precisely but I did say on several occasions that Corbyn made a huge mistake in not honoring the referendum. More recently he even had a chance to accept Johnson's deal. I pointed that out as a mistake as well.
I still think Labour would have lost, afterall, Corbyn is still Corbyn and still a Marxist. But the result would have been much closer. Perhaps even hung.
Many of my US readers hated the amount of time I spent on this.
Sorry, but I wanted to do everything I could to stop a Marxist from becoming UK prime minister.
Key Idea Flashback
I was cheering loudly when fools added an Amendment to Johnson’s Brexit Deal.
He then pulled it.
Then Swinson backed an election.
That was the critical sequence of events and I called it real time.
Election Odds - On the Humorous Side
Tony Blair’s former constituency – Sedgefield – looks set to be among the tidal wave of Labour seats voting Tory for the first time in nearly a century tonight. Both Labour and Conservative sources say the County Durham seat, which voted to Leave the EU, was likely to change hands as a result of Brexit and the unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn.
Bishop Auckland Goes Tory
First time in 134 years.
I am not from the UK - Anyone know these places and how unusual this is?
Johnson Can Do What He Wants
Someone Noticed - Thanks!
Reflections on an Undeserved Victory
Absolute Laugh of the Day
Labour Thanks Nigel Farage for Rare Victory
Good Riddance to Grieve
Another Good Riddance: Chuka Umunna Goes Down
"Northern Ireland was on course to elect nine nationalist MPs – seven from Sinn Féin, two from the SDLP – and eight unionist MPs, marking a symbolic tilt in favour of those who favour Irish unity."
This is interesting
As noted, if Sinn Féin does not show up in parliament, it increases the Tory Majority by the same margin.
Sinn Féin did not show up in 2017 and pledged to do again now.
If so, whatever Tory majorities, are announced add 7 to it.
Musical Tribute to Jo Swinson
Exit polls suggested Tories would lose all but 1 seat in Scotland.
I made this comment hours ago ...
Expecting now for Tories to only hold 1-6. My guess now 4 or 5. No supporting evidence. Just a hunch, and 7 would not be a surprise.
6 it was. Labour lost all but 1.
Live Blog Over - New Article Coming Up
With that, the live blog is over. But more election comments in a new post coming up.
Please chime in.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock