Blowout Win for Boris Johnson: Live Blog

Mish

The election is over. It's a Tory blowout win for Boris Johnson.

Note: I changed the title of this post to reflect the live blog status. What follows is the results and my comments as posted in real time.

Exit Poll Results in Full

Translation - It's All Over

Why? It's a near certainty the exit polls are at least reasonable.

What If?

Open Questions

  1. Will Jeremy Corbyn resign in disgrace?
  2. How big will the final Tory Majority be?

Sound Familiar?

Congratulations Tories!

Brexit Will Get Done

Congratulations Boris Johnson and the Tories for turning away an incompetent Marxist government led by Jeremy Corbyn.

Time For a Debt of Gratitude

I am going to treat this like a Live Blog and post updates.

Pertinent Ideas from Guardian Live

"The exit poll shows the Conservatives gaining 51 seats in total, but losing potentially 12 of their 13 seats in Scotland. That would suggest 64 gains in England and Wales, which – on an even swing – would mean Boris Johnson’s party smashing Labour’s so called ‘red wall’ running between the Vale of Clwyd in north Wales to Grimsby on the east coast."

That would really be something. I did expect Tories to do better in Scotland. On the whole though, I would rather Labour get smashed everywhere.

My "Fearless Forecast" had SNP picking up 5 from Labour and 1 from Tories.

My understanding is those Scotland exit polls are within the margin of error. So I do expect Labour to be totally wiped out. Expecting now for Tories to only hold 1-6. My guess now 4 or 5. No supporting evidence. Just a hunch, and 7 would not be a surprise.

Blyth Valley Turns Blue

"The Tories have won the Blyth Valley seat from Labour for the first time since its creation in 1950."

Unless stated otherwise, quotes are from Guardian Live.

Reason for Fearless Forecast

Comment of the Day

I do not agree precisely but I did say on several occasions that Corbyn made a huge mistake in not honoring the referendum. More recently he even had a chance to accept Johnson's deal. I pointed that out as a mistake as well.

I still think Labour would have lost, afterall, Corbyn is still Corbyn and still a Marxist. But the result would have been much closer. Perhaps even hung.

US Readers

Many of my US readers hated the amount of time I spent on this.

Sorry, but I wanted to do everything I could to stop a Marxist from becoming UK prime minister.

Key Idea Flashback

I was cheering loudly when fools added an Amendment to Johnson’s Brexit Deal.

He then pulled it.

Then Swinson backed an election.

That was the critical sequence of events and I called it real time.

Election Odds - On the Humorous Side

Tony Blair

Tony Blair’s former constituency – Sedgefield – looks set to be among the tidal wave of Labour seats voting Tory for the first time in nearly a century tonight. Both Labour and Conservative sources say the County Durham seat, which voted to Leave the EU, was likely to change hands as a result of Brexit and the unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn.

Bishop Auckland Goes Tory

First time in 134 years.

Redcar Wow

I am not from the UK - Anyone know these places and how unusual this is?

Johnson Can Do What He Wants

Someone Noticed - Thanks!

Reflections on an Undeserved Victory

Absolute Laugh of the Day

Labour Thanks Nigel Farage for Rare Victory

Good Riddance to Grieve

Another Good Riddance: Chuka Umunna Goes Down

As Expected

Northern Ireland

"Northern Ireland was on course to elect nine nationalist MPs – seven from Sinn Féin, two from the SDLP – and eight unionist MPs, marking a symbolic tilt in favour of those who favour Irish unity."

This is interesting

As noted, if Sinn Féin does not show up in parliament, it increases the Tory Majority by the same margin.

Sinn Féin did not show up in 2017 and pledged to do again now.

If so, whatever Tory majorities, are announced add 7 to it.

Updated Forecast

Musical Tribute to Jo Swinson

Scotland Finals

Exit polls suggested Tories would lose all but 1 seat in Scotland.

I made this comment hours ago ...

Expecting now for Tories to only hold 1-6. My guess now 4 or 5. No supporting evidence. Just a hunch, and 7 would not be a surprise.

6 it was. Labour lost all but 1.

Live Blog Over - New Article Coming Up

With that, the live blog is over. But more election comments in a new post coming up.

Please chime in.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (97)
No. 1-37
Latkes
Latkes

Maybe having an election ad like this wasn't the best idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQo7vzLpx2Y

Bagger
Bagger

Happy days. Still only a poll but historically quite accurate.

Anda
Anda

:D

( even optimists stopped at 345 ;-), guess full figures are for the morning this side of the pond though)

Tengen
Tengen

The Brits are lucky, our entertainment extravaganza doesn't end for another 11 months even though it already feels like it has dragged on for years.

I don't follow UK politics to anywhere near the extent Mish does, but the Labour/Tory dynamic seems similar to our red/blue one here in the US. One party wants big government, the other party says they want small government but really want big government too. Neither wants to draw attention to the bankers or MIC. Riveting stuff!

HenryV
HenryV

Hope he delivers!

Harry-Ireland
Harry-Ireland

I think it's quite early to call it, but this is exactly what I was hoping for. And praise to Mish for having constantly been correct about the -potential- outcome.

HenryV
HenryV

Yes credit to Mish indeed!

JustASimpleMan
JustASimpleMan

As was the case after Michael Foot in 1983, Labour will waste another 10 years arguing that their manifesto wasn't left enough and the unions should be more deeply involved in running the country & the party.

It's like Groundhog Day. .

Mish
Mish

Editor

Damn all the taunts and lectures I got from @avidremainer and @Deep Purple and others these past two months. When do they show up?

Mish
Mish

Editor

Looking like Jo Swinson gets outed - LOL And what a piss poor campaign she ran too. But we do owe her a debt of gratitude. She is the one who agreed to this election.

nothingbutblueskies
nothingbutblueskies

Thanks for the outstanding Brexit/Election analysis, Mish.

Scooot
Scooot

My small Gold holding isn’t doing very well 😀

Mish
Mish

Editor

I was ridiculed for this idea when I made it

ukexpatdownunder
ukexpatdownunder

huge relief from me. I'm so pleased people saw Labour for what they would do to the country - take it back to the Scargill era. Now lets get on with it because an independent union can make its own way. This will be a huge success because Brisitsh people will make it so. I like the Guardian but oh boy they need to screw their heads on by following Corbyn !

Mish
Mish

Editor

@Scooot

I believe John McDonnell reiterated tonight he does not want to be party leader.

That's good, because he is at least as bad a Corbyn.

George Phillies
George Phillies

The conservative remainers who obstructed Brexit...are any of them around?

Sudo
Sudo

Mish I enjoyed the great posts on the UK mess and pending elections as I too was hoping the communists would be defeated. You did an amazing play by play and I encourage you to continue because what happens in the UK from here on is really important.

djwebb1969
djwebb1969

You fail to mention just how undeserved this victory is - that the arch-traitors should pretend to be patriotic and sweep up all these votes -- knowing they're pushing something very like Theresa May's deal. I don't know how long people will take to cotton on. Maybe in ten years' time, when fisherman are asking why they are still beholden to EU quotas, people will start to realise. Hague said "in Europe, not run by Europe". Boris's deal means "not in Europe, but still run by Europe". A total fake. Even Mish will realise this in a couple of years time.

Quenda
Quenda

I'm surprised by the strength of the Tory majority, but not surprised that they've won. For the past few months this election has been reminding me of the last Australian election where most poll predictions were predicting a Labor party majority. In the end it was a narrow but convincing win for the Liberal-National Party. Prime minister Scott Morrison put his win down to the "quiet" Australian's who didn't show up on public echo chambers. I think Johnson's win is down to quiet British who didn't show up on online forums or talkback radio or TV.

Mish
Mish

Editor

@djwebb1969 : "You fail to mention just how undeserved this victory is"

Undeserved? Please think.

Corbyn is a Marxist fool. This is the biggest confirmation in history that people can, on occasion, actually think!

Brexitologist
Brexitologist

ALL of you dear bloggers are missing what´s REALLY happening, Mish included.

The Brexit end game will not focus on how the UK would be leaving the EU.

Brexit will necessarily affect the BoE´s gold custody policy as nations will want to repatriate their gold, just in case. Examples abound, you know that, don´t you ?

Will the BoE comply though ? THAT´s the Brexit dilemma, nothing else.

Does the BoE actually have such gold ready for delivery, un-encumbered or non-hypothecated ?

Just asking… Mish ?

GruesomeHarvest
GruesomeHarvest

I think people are fed up with the totalitarian left and their international bankster posse. Hopefully the American people will wise up and throw the Dim-a-crats out.

Trump may be a blowhard but he's the easy choice given the clown show being proffered by the Dims.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"ALL of you dear bloggers are missing what´s REALLY happening, Mish included."

Good lord @Brexitologist , forgive me for being blunt but I am tired of responding to asinine comments like yours for the simple reason I have done so a dozen times already.

Here's the short version.

I leave it to you to think this through, but your comment is bullshit. And addressed repeatedly.

I expect a deal. The WTO allows of 10 full years to settle, if the EU will not agree, then nbo deal. so what?

My expectation is a short delay and a Temp deal with details over the following year. No customs union extension.

Apologies accepted. Thanks Mish

Quatloo
Quatloo

Well done on the election Mish! Now do we get a no deal Brexit? The votes to do it are now there in Parliament. If Labour or the LibDems want to re-open ANYTHING on Brexit, I say re-open EVERYTHING on Brexit. The REAL (now actual) threat to leave with no deal will ultimately result in a much better deal with the EU.

Who will be next to leave the EU Empire?

Freebees2me
Freebees2me

Well, Mish, nicely done, but now that that issue is neatly 'in-the-bag,' it's back to real work:

  • What's with $500 billion in liquidity for a well-oiled, well functioning market (humm?)
  • The Super-duper China Trade Deal (double humm?); and
  • Impeachment & possible equity bump due to higher certainty of a Trump landslide...

Just to name a few....

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

MISH, you've made this study in British government more enjoyable than European history I studied in high school, so I learned a few things these past months.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Where the heck is our good friend @avidremainer ?

Wilwhooty
Wilwhooty

Very happy with the results and finally we can move on after more than 3 years.

Quenda
Quenda

Looks like Mish's prediction is going to be super close. To get within 5 or 6 seats is an extremely good estimation even when a bit of luck is involved.

ajc1970
ajc1970

I would love to see a breakdown of what happened to the ~20 Tory MPs who lost the whip in late August/early September for voting against BJ.

I know some regained the whip, some chose not to run.

How many that did not regain the whip but ran for reelection won? How many lost?

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

You were right about the dynamics, that is sure. Lab-Lib tactical voting and the Farage maneuvers did not work in the large majority of cases.

This is a large realignment of the electorate but I don't think it is over. Without the Leaver Labour voters in poorer areas, the Lab-Lib forces can come together. I don't like it, but it is a likely outcome. It may be slow though. Corbyn was the last try of the traditional socialist Labour party and he failed. That's life.

The next round after Brexit is about the EU trade deal, the Scottish and Irish situation. BoJo has the office but the crisis is not over. If we look at global politics, it won't be over for decades...

Mish
Mish

Editor

Farage cost Tories 1 seat. I expected 1-5.

New post coming up shortly. Nearly done.

NeverReady
NeverReady

Enjoy your steak Mish :)

Carl_R
Carl_R

Thanks for the excellent coverage and discussion, Mish. You have been proven generally correct throughout the entire Brexit circus, and about the election as well.

SpeedyGeezer
SpeedyGeezer

Great work, Mish!! Reading your Brexit/election analysis provided an edge versus MSM coverage, which has been in denial throughout. Much appreciated!!!

Freebees2me
Freebees2me

Is Boris’ victory bittersweet?

In Scotland, the pro-independence, anti-Brexit Scottish Nationalists (SNP) swept the boards. The final results were SNP: 48 (+13) Conservatives: 6 (-7) Lib Dem: 4 (-) Labour: 1 (-6). Ten years ago, Labour had over 40 seats in Scotland. Scotland MPs want to stay in the EU.

Similar results in North Ireland:

Results: DUP 8; Sinn Féin 7; SDLP 2; Alliance 1

Northern Ireland elected a majority of anti-Brexit MPs and more importantly for the first time elected more Nationalist than Unionist MPs. Irish MPs want to stay in the EU and a majority do not support staying in the United Kingdom.

The question on the table now is:

Can Boris Johnson hold the United Kingdom (i.e., England, Scotland and North Ireland) together?

Inquiring minds want to know...

Brexitologist
Brexitologist

Geee Mish, you didn`t even READ what @Brexitologist posted !!!

Please do will ya ? Your opinion matters much.

Mish, think Brexit + BoE + EU gold in custody okay ?

After Brexit, the BoE could / should change its policy regarding the RE-patriation of gold claimed by EU members, get it ?

Above you just posted an automatic BS reply that has NOTHING to do with @Brexitologist`s valid comment regarding EU GOLD as in physical G-O-L-D now in (supposed) custody if still at the BoE (is it ?) which, after Brexit, may / should change its policy on this topic.


Global Economics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY