Rate Hike Odds Drop
In addition to the bond market letting out a big yawn, rate hike odds did the same. In fact, they declined slightly from 53.2% to 48.7%.
Manipulation is certainly present, but the Fed stopped padding its balance sheet long ago. And it’s pretty clear the key decision-makers at the Fed want to hike.
Thus, it’s a big mistake to discount the idea of a weakening economy as the primary reason yields are falling even if the absolute level of yields is in serious question by manipulative actions.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock