Bookies Lose Big as Betters Go 9-1 That Trump Tells at Least 4 Lies in Wall Talk

President Trump’s loose grip on the truth just cost one gambling site over a million dollars.

MarketWatch reports President Trump’s truthiness makes history as betting site pays out big.

Before the president’s address on border security Tuesday night, put the over/under on the number of lies he’d spew at 3.5. For bettors, it was a no-brainer, as hundreds of thousands of dollars loaded up on the over.

In fact, Bookmaker odds consultant John Lester told MarketWatch that the site has never seen such a lopsided response from its customers.

“Never in our 30-year history have we been this one-sided (9 to 1) on a wager,” he said. “You would have to go back to the early Mike Tyson fights (pre-Buster Douglas) to find a wager with comparable one-sided demand.”

Lester explained that no matter how much he adjusted the odds, hardly anybody seemed interested in taking the under. Smart move, considering the Washington Post found that there were at least six false statements during the address.

“We knew the President would be prone to exaggeration to support his need for Democratic support to fund his wall,” Lester said. “However, we hoped the 8-minute time constraint coupled with the unlikelihood of the President going off-script would keep the total number of false statements low.”


I explained in my post ahead of the speech that bookies seldom lose because they do not care which way people bet. That's true, assuming the bet attracts an equal dollar amount of bets on each side.

See How Many Lies Will Trump Tell Tonight in His Special Address? Bookies Take Bets for discussion.

In this case, BookMaker made an error. It did not place the over-under line at a spot that generated equal bets. Six or 7 might have done that.

This was a bookie error and betters realized it. Congrats to those betting on lies.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

No. 1-14

the mistake bookies made was to think the fact checkers would deal strictly in facts. a lot of the wapo article is opinion masquerading as fact.

from wapo: "warned of a “security crisis at the southern border” — even though the number of people caught trying to cross illegally is near 20-year lows."

hmmm. over what period of time is that measurement made. we all know that the period of time can make a huge difference. over the past 3 months the rate is at an all time high, which sounds like a crisis to me. there again, what is the strict definition of crisis applied to this situation? it is a matter of opinion, there is no way to find a hard number definition of what constitutes a border crisis.

the bookies were idiots to take bets on this


I'd have gone with 5 lies at least, bad odds maker there...


Two points:

  1. Why the hell aren't we amping up e-Verify? The Republicans have had 2 years to make it expensive and unappealing (from a prison time perspective) to hire illegal aliens. But they have done nothing - they didn't even fund the damn wall. Now suddenly it is a crisis?

  2. Trump: "Who'se gonna pay for the wall?" Trump Supporters: ???


A lot of people here have IDS, Immigrant Derangement Syndrome.