Bookies Lose Big as Betters Go 9-1 That Trump Tells at Least 4 Lies in Wall Talk

President Trump’s loose grip on the truth just cost one gambling site over a million dollars.

MarketWatch reports President Trump’s truthiness makes history as betting site pays out big.

Before the president’s address on border security Tuesday night, Bookmaker.eu put the over/under on the number of lies he’d spew at 3.5. For bettors, it was a no-brainer, as hundreds of thousands of dollars loaded up on the over.

In fact, Bookmaker odds consultant John Lester told MarketWatch that the site has never seen such a lopsided response from its customers.

“Never in our 30-year history have we been this one-sided (9 to 1) on a wager,” he said. “You would have to go back to the early Mike Tyson fights (pre-Buster Douglas) to find a wager with comparable one-sided demand.”

Lester explained that no matter how much he adjusted the odds, hardly anybody seemed interested in taking the under. Smart move, considering the Washington Post found that there were at least six false statements during the address.

“We knew the President would be prone to exaggeration to support his need for Democratic support to fund his wall,” Lester said. “However, we hoped the 8-minute time constraint coupled with the unlikelihood of the President going off-script would keep the total number of false statements low.”

Nope

I explained in my post ahead of the speech that bookies seldom lose because they do not care which way people bet. That's true, assuming the bet attracts an equal dollar amount of bets on each side.

See How Many Lies Will Trump Tell Tonight in His Special Address? Bookies Take Bets for discussion.

In this case, BookMaker made an error. It did not place the over-under line at a spot that generated equal bets. Six or 7 might have done that.

This was a bookie error and betters realized it. Congrats to those betting on lies.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (51)
No. 1-13
gregggg
gregggg

If Pelosi's head was invaded by bees, they could build a hive in her head and she'd never notice.

Escierto
Escierto

Is this where all the old white men gather and cry bitter tears seeing minorities and women rise to power? Here in the bunker with Adolf Trump and Eva Braun.

shamrock
shamrock

I watched that line for awhile, and though the number of lies at 3.5 did not change, by the end you had to bet $5 to win $1 on the over. So it's probably not as bad as it seems on the surface.

ML1
ML1

At least Fox News Shephard Smith LIED in his factcheck on Trump by claiming: ""government statistics show that there is less violent crime by the undocumented immigrant population than the general population"

There are NO such government statistics even being collected and separated since there is NO government stats on the amount of crimes illegal immigrants make available from government.

One can only piece the stats together partially from many places but government does NOT do it.

Here is Fox News own article from 2015 that exposes Shephard Smith's LYING factcheck:

"The federal government can tell you how many "Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islanders" stole a car, the precise number of "American Indian or Alaska Natives" who were arrested for vagrancy or how many whites were busted for counterfeiting in any given year. But the government agencies that crunch crime numbers are utterly unable -- or unwilling -- to pinpoint for the public how many illegal immigrants are arrested within U.S. borders each year."

AND

"In the absence of comprehensive data, FoxNews examined a patchwork of local, state and federal statistics that revealed a wildly disproportionate number of murderers, rapists and drug dealers are crossing into the U.S. amid the wave of hard-working families seeking a better life. The explosive figures show illegal immigrants are three times as likely to be convicted of murder as members of the general population and account for far more crimes than their 3.5-percent share of the U.S. population would suggest."

AND

" illegal immigrants in the U.S. account for 13.6 percent of all offenders sentenced for crimes committed in the U.S. Twelve percent of murder sentences, 20 percent of kidnapping sentences and 16 percent of drug trafficking sentences are meted out to illegal immigrants."

The whole article:

So if the bookie PAID based on Media's factchecks they were most likely just ROBBED by the incompetent factchecks since even Fox News Shephard Smith flat out LIED in his factcheck of Trump's speech and used his LYING factcheck to claim that Trump had lied.

pi314
pi314

Does the bookie know the number of lies told by Christine Ford in the Kavanaugh hearing, even after it has taken place? I'm sure Washington Post will confirm that Ford told no lies.

How about bets on global warming?

This is another anit-American piece.

shamrock
shamrock

So I guess Bookmaker used the Washington Post fact checkers as the arbiter of the wager. They found six, but if you take out the ones that are true but misleading he's down to 3.

  1. The new trade deal will pay for the wall. LIE.
  2. Most heroin comes through the southern border. TRUE but misleading, note he never claimed the wall would solve this problem (it wont).
  3. There is a crises at the border. LIE. It's actually more of an opinion but one so clearly incorrect as to be a lie (border crossing are down 75% this century).
  4. 266,000 aliens have been arrested in the last 2 years. TRUE but misleading, most are arrested for immigration violations.
  5. Democrats used to support a barrier. TRUE but misleading.
  6. Democrats insist the wall be made of steel rather than concrete. LIE.
ML1
ML1

I found one lie by Trump in his speech:

Trump claimed that "1 in 3 women are sexually assaulted on the dangerous trek up through Mexico"

This is a LIE.

In reality 60%-80% of the women are raped according to Amnesty International:

"According to Amnesty International, 60% of migrant women and girls are raped while migrating, while other data indicate that 80% of women experience rape and sexual assault during the migration process."

So the situation is MUCH WORSE than Trump stated.

Then one has to think WHO is raping these women.

Most likely it is the MEN in the Caravans traveling to USA together with the women and crossing the open border and coming to USA.

USAFoxes
USAFoxes

If they paid out they are the suckers. All of the so-called lies were Trumped-up garbage by the writer, which I could have predicted before wasting my time reading.

shamrock
shamrock

A lot of people here have IDS, Immigrant Derangement Syndrome.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic

Two points:

  1. Why the hell aren't we amping up e-Verify? The Republicans have had 2 years to make it expensive and unappealing (from a prison time perspective) to hire illegal aliens. But they have done nothing - they didn't even fund the damn wall. Now suddenly it is a crisis?

  2. Trump: "Who'se gonna pay for the wall?" Trump Supporters: ???

jwwill1957
jwwill1957

I'd have gone with 5 lies at least, bad odds maker there...

awc13
awc13

the mistake bookies made was to think the fact checkers would deal strictly in facts. a lot of the wapo article is opinion masquerading as fact.

from wapo: "warned of a “security crisis at the southern border” — even though the number of people caught trying to cross illegally is near 20-year lows."

hmmm. over what period of time is that measurement made. we all know that the period of time can make a huge difference. over the past 3 months the rate is at an all time high, which sounds like a crisis to me. there again, what is the strict definition of crisis applied to this situation? it is a matter of opinion, there is no way to find a hard number definition of what constitutes a border crisis.

the bookies were idiots to take bets on this