Boris Johnson's Deviously Clever Brexit Strategy Unfolds

-edited

The Remainers are huffing and puffing this morning, but it will be to no avail. Johnston's strategy is nearly foolproof.

Corbyn Vows to 'Politically Stop' No Deal

The Guradian Live Blog reports Jeremy Corbyn Says He Will Try to 'Politically Stop' Prorogation with Legislation. He cant buts let's look at some comments.

Opposition leaders have demanded that Boris Johnson either reverse his decision to suspend Parliament or put it to a Commons vote. The leaders of Labour, the SNP, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, the Independent Group for Change and the Greens, "condemn the undemocratic actions of Boris Johnson following his suspension of Parliament until 14 October."

My Reply: So What?

Lord Young quit as a government whip in the Lords over Boris Johnson’s decision, saying it “risks undermining the fundamental role of parliament” in his resignation letter.

My Reply: Excellent News

Johnson will appoint a whip who will obey his wishes. Should the Commons pull any legislative tricks that require the House of Lords, expect a filibuster.

The Labour leader has said parliament will “legislate rapidly” on Tuesday, when it resumes, to prevent Boris Johnson from suspending parliament and stop a no-deal Brexit.

My Reply: Not Legally Binding

A petition calling on the government not to prorogue parliament has already been signed by more than 1.4 million people. The petition is growing even faster than the petition to revoke article 50, which eventually had 6m signatures.

My Reply: Not Legally Binding

Accusations

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, has claimed the Speaker, John Bercow, was being unconstitutional by criticising the suspension of parliament. Bercow described Johnson’s move to prorogue parliament as a “constitutional outrage”. But Rees-Mogg claimed it was Bercow who was acting outside the constitution by making such comments.

Rees-Mogg is correct. There is nothing unconstitutional about the move. Proroguing is frequent. Only the timing is unusual.

“It was simply wrong and deeply irresponsible of him [Bercow] to say that. The Queen had no discretion over this. There is no precedent for the Queen refusing a request by her prime minister under these circumstances. This is a straightforward decision by the prime minister giving formal advice to the sovereign, which a constitutional monarch is obliged to follow. Lord O’Donnell is saying things that are damaging to the constitution and wrong.”

Rees-Moog commented: “The law of the land is that we leave the European Union, and parliament voted for that on the back of a referendum where 17.4 million people voted to leave. That’s not railroading. That’s delivering a proper constitutional settlement.”

Coup

Call to Hang Johnson

The Shadow (opposition) Chancellor, John McDonnell, labeled Johnson a “dictator”.

Other want to hang him.

The Tweet has been deleted.

Acceptance

Both Tweets sounds like acceptance.

Polls

Common Sense from Eurointelligence

Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings have a strategy - and nobody else does. The prorogation plan is devious - or clever depending on your views. It tells us that this government will stop at nothing to frustrate the Remainers in the parliament, so long as it is legal.

The decision to prorogue parliament in the way they did dramatically reduces the options for the Remain supporters. There is now no time for legislation to force the government to extend Brexit. There is a little more than a week after the parliament convenes next week, and there will be a couple of weeks after the Queen’s Speech October 14.

Can this be stopped legally? Not really. It is not the prime minister who has prorogued the parliament. It was the Queen, who has her own legal counsel.

Perhaps the most interesting news story yesterday - amid a torrent of noisy outrage - was a story in Die Welt according to which Germany and the EU - for the first time - now actually believe that a no-deal Brexit is possible. We have been pointing out for the last three years that Germans in particular did not believe that Brexit would happen. The German media have been obsessed with the second referendum campaign and reported on little else. It also has been the overwhelming experience of the EU that the other side always blinks first. What yesterday’s decision did was to make it absolutely clear to the EU that the UK parliament won’t stop a no-deal Brexit.

There is no way the House of Commons and the Lords will finalize an anti-Brexit law before parliament breaks up. They would have to re-table the legislation in mid-October. But at that time Johnson and EU leaders would be in last-minute negotiations. If the talks succeed, parliament will get a last-minute take-it-or-leave-it vote.

There is still one option left for Remainers to pursue, but it is very risky. They could hold a vote of no confidence when they come back next week. If they win, the fixed-term parliaments act sets out a definitive procedure. The House of Commons has two weeks to secure a majority in support of another prime minister - a technical government as the Italians would call it. But this is unlikely as the opposition is hopelessly divided on this point. If that effort fails, the Commons would be suspended for new elections. But, crucially, it is the government that sets the date for them. Number Ten said yesterday that the date for elections would be November 1-5, that is after a no-deal Brexit. In other words, a no-confidence motion could actually trigger a no-deal Brexit, as the Commons would have deprived themselves of the opportunity to ratify a withdrawal agreement.

This is why the timing of the prorogation is so clever - no doubt the work of Cummings.

The political reality is that the anti-Brexit campaign has committed one strategic blunder after another, and failed to attract enough support. They lost two general elections, one European election and one referendum. The ferocity of their reaction is best explained as a sudden realisation that they lost. They did not see this coming.

Eurointelligence supports the opinion I offered yesterday.

"The only possible way to stop this now is a successful motion of no confidence followed by the agreement of an alternate government."

Even then, Cummings noted that Johnson would refuse to resign. The law is unclear on what would happen.

Brilliant Plan

I did not understand why Johnson (Cummings) would have picked October 14 for a Queen's speech. It is clear today.

  • Now that the EU finally understands No Deal is on the table and Parliament cannot stop it, there is a chance for Johnson to actually work out a deal.
  • Should there be a successful motion of no confidence, it would trigger no deal, taking away the arguably small chance the EU might come to its senses and work out a deal.
  • Such a deal might be a trade arrangement in return for the UK paying the Brexit bill and other cooperative efforts, but the backstop has to go.
  • Also, and as I have pointed pointed out before, any Tory who voted against Johnson would immediately be outed from the party and lose their seat in the next election.

Congrats to Boris Johnson for a brilliant plan.

Happy Halloween.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (22)
No. 1-6
abend237-04
abend237-04

Jonson is turning the UK into a far more troublesome colony than the EU could have imagined under May. Even Germany's plan for referendums-until-victory is now defunct. In anticipation of Corbin's next move, I'd suggest he save a lot of trees by simply adopting our own left's recent screed against the Electoral College and use it instead in attacking Johnson's tactics..

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

This has been the longest sitting of Parliament since about 1653.

kentwillumsen
kentwillumsen

If Boris just remove the backstop from the WA then his party is toast. The Brexit party would win the next general election then. The WA is not a deal, but effectively just seek to keep the UK in the EU for another 2 years without any guarantee of a trade deal for the cost of £39bn. Within the current time-frame, the only option is a no-deal. A no-deal would secure Boris a successful general election after Brexit.

Carlos_
Carlos_

No-deal Brexit is a done deal. Even if the EU can change the terms for the backstop Boris will still not like it. My guess is the split of the UK is becoming a near certainty. So Boris will have his Pyrrhic victory.

Jackula
Jackula

BoJo seems to be a way better negotiator than Trump and especially Theresa May. Now he is in the driver's seat to negotiate a better deal with the EU.

Herkie
Herkie

This is really great reporting Mish, had not seen any of this in the MSM.

Funny how karma works out, the Irish were forced into the EU after they voted against the Lisbon Treaty, it was made clear that they would be revoting it till they got it right.

Now, because the only land border the UK has with the EU is the Ulster county line separating the UK from the Republic of Ireland which would have to become a hard border with fences and customs checkpoints, and a separation in about a hundred other ways not to mention a virtual end to the Good Friday accords that ended sectarian violence 20 years ago, Ireland is once again pivotal in UK politics.

I am viewing this from the Ireland side of the border because my Dad immigrated to the US in 1949, I am a dual citizen in the US and Ireland, making me also an EU passport holder.

Ireland is secretly watching all this with anticipation. I think the Irish and the republicans in the north as well as more than a few anti Brexit protestants see a hard border coming after 20 years of an open border, they do not like it. I mean really don't like it all.

Since the Good Friday agreement in 1998 there has been no violence in Ulster between Catholics and Protestants, an entire generation of adults was born and grew up hearing horror stories of segregated towns, bombs at weddings, hits on political figures, razor wire and deep poverty for both sides because capitalism and investment just does not happen in the middle of a religious civil war.

One of the main breakthroughs of the Good Friday peace deal was that Ulster could at any time decide to hold a plebiscite to leave the United Kingdom and rejoin Ireland.

Mind you Ulster is governed by the Home Office in London. The new Home Office governor for Ulster admitted she knew little about Northern Ireland, and was afraid when she was posted there. She said she grew up with the horror stories about the troubles. So, this doubles the issues for the protestants in the north that have held out on reunification. Now most of them would like to stay in the EU since Ulster voted heavily against Brexit. There is actually a small minority of no more than half the protestants that are remainers. And 90% or more catholics also wish to stay in the EU.

Common sense says if Brexit deal or no deal happens on Halloween then Ulster could very well hold that plebiscite to unify Ireland at last. If they do I am sure it would pass by a huge margin, all Ulster residents after all are Irish, and as it is now seen that religious freedom would be assured in the Republic the protestants have nothing to fear that way. Their main complaint way back was the pope ran Ireland, but as an EU member state the pope no longer has much influence. In fact Ireland has dropped Catholicism like a red hot rock, church attendance is about as low as you can find in the western world there now.

I am as anti EU as any of your followers as you can find Mish. But I am pro unification of Ireland. A no deal Brexit with a hard border between the Republic and Ulster will very likely trigger a vote for Ulster to unify the island once and for all. Yea I am all happy about that!

But, for one of the states of the UK to vote to leave, well you must see the inherent threat to the UK. Wales, Scotland, Ulster, they were all pretty convincingly anti Brexit and in fact the vote in England was so overwhelming for leaving that it just swamped the vote in the other parts of the UK.

I can see this easily and maybe inevitably ending the UK. The rural outlying provinces like Wales or Scotland also taking a vote to join the EU as independent nations. Let's face it, in the UK all the money is financialized in the City of London. The outlying people have no choice but to vote for EU welfare.

As far as the UK breaking up I say if I am in favor of Ulster leaving the UK and rejoining Ireland then I have also got to be in favor of Scotland doing so. The UK after all is a forced amalgam of lands put together many hundreds of years ago because someone did not produce a male child.

England can afford to shed Scotland, Wales, and Ulster, let them go join the EU, in fact England by itself would be far better off (I cannot stress this enough) without the welfare states of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. This is very likely the motive behind a no deal Brexit, England would probably actually pay that 40 something billion pounds to get rid of them. Let the welfare state of Ulster be Ireland's and the EU's problem. Let the welfare state of Scotland, and of Wales be the EU's problem. England alone by itself would save more on the NHS for those outlying poverty stricken shitholes than the EU is trying to bill them.

So, Boris is indeed a genius, he is about to shed all the liabilities of the UK and keep only the assets. We will have to get used to saying ENGLAND rather than Britain or the UK, but London will still be it's heart, and that is where all the old empire's money is. I think England though smaller will become the center of the universe after Brexit. Like a rally big version of Singapore but with a thousand times the money and power.

I also think the EU will struggle after Brexit, within 10 years England will once again rival the US and the EU will be history.

Or will it.

Maybe all this Brexit stuff has been a battle of wills between London and Frankfurt. Maybe Frankfurt will cave?