Brexit Compromise? Not So Fast! Collapse of UK Governments Just as Likely

Word hit this AM of a Brexit compromise between the UK and the EU. I didn't bite. A deal is one thing, approval another.

This morning, the Financial Times reported UK and EU Hammer Out Draft Terms of Brexit Divorce.

The Guardian commented May Tells Her Cabinet, This is the Deal – Now Back Me

This THE Deal?

It could be, but color me skeptical. I did not bite on those headlines.

Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn

"Unlikely to be a good deal"

Jo Johnson

Jo Johnson is brother of Boris Johnson. Unlike his brother, Jo is pro-Europe. He resigned May's cabinet because he thinks the deal is a bad one.

Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson resigned as May's Foreign Secretary on July 9.

David Davis

David Davis called this a "moment of truth". He was May's former Brexit Secretary. He resigned on July 8 in disgust of May's handling.

It would seem that May would have been able to appoint a cabinet that would easily back her, but her policies are so bad that did not happen.

Attacks Everywhere

This afternoon the Financial Times reported DUP and Eurosceptics Attack Draft Brexit Treaty Sight Unseen.

Justine Greening, a pro-EU Conservative MP, warned the “entire planet” could see it was a bad deal. “Even if some people in my party can’t see this is a bad deal, everyone else around this entire planet can.”

Sight Unseen Agreement?

Yep. The agreement is provisional. May did not enough integrity to even post it.

We do know one thing: May’s Brexit Compromise Comes with High Price.

Stench to High Heavens

What do we have?

It's hard to say precisely because there is no public record. The FT labeled it as a “backstop to the backstop” .

“Let’s not confuse white smoke with fog over the Thames,” said one official.

I suggest we can expect stench to high heavens when deals are not disclosed.

Will it pass?

It could.

Will it be a good deal? No matter what's in the deal, I am confident of my answer "No."

New Elections

If the deal does not pass, Theresa May is likely to call for new elections.

And that is the key to understanding some of the opposition. Labour wants new elections.

The pro-Europe crowd hopes to hold a new referendum. That's unlikely but every vote counts.

DUP feels dumped. May needs those votes.

Any Miracles?

Are there any miracles in May's hat?

It depends more on compromises the EU is willing to make than anything May can do or say. No matter which way May bends, she upsets somebody.

The EU is likely to postpone compromises until the last moment.

By then, all the hard Brexit groundwork will be in place. No one will fear a hard Brexit anymore. And that's a good thing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock​

Comments
No. 1-6
Yancey_Ward
Yancey_Ward

The entire purpose of the "shambolic" process was to get to a 2nd referendum- it explains everything you are seeing today. Make such mess of things that the whoever the PM is "throws up their hands" and says, "I must call for a 2nd referendum because it has become a mess." Mark my words- the 2nd referendum will occur, and Bremain will make sure they win this time, by hook or by crook.

JL1
JL1

EU bureaucrats are giddy and happy about May's incompetent sellout of a Brexit:

"The note, obtained by The Times, suggested that Sabine Weyand - deputy to Michel Barnier - told ambassadors that the EU "retains its leverage" over Britain under the Prime Minister's deal.

The note is said to state that the UK "would have to swallow a link between access to products and fisheries in future agreements".

According to the note, Ms Weyand said: "We should be in the best negotiation position for the future relationship. This requires the customs union as the basis of the future relationship.

"They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls. They apply the same rules. UK wants a lot more from future relationship, so EU retains its leverage."

So May's incompetent boondoggle would leave UK chained to EU and EU would have the upper hand in everything in the future and May's deal would also prolong the uncertainty for years and therefore be detrimental to UK growth.

Right now UK growth is BETTER than Germany and France.

Kinuachdrach
Kinuachdrach

So bored with Brexit! The funny thing is that once the Little Englanders have successfully separated from the EU -- they will be stuck with their own totally incompetent leaders like May or Corbyn, or Blair & Brown before them. As someone once said about the English Ruling Class: These are the people who took an Empire on Which the Sun Never Set … and lost it in a generation. The Brits could undoubtedly teach the Euros a thing or two about bureaucracy -- and after separation, they probably will.

Chances of the Brits post-separation adopting the Mish-approved policy of unilateral zero tariffs? Zero!

RonJ
RonJ

"shambolic"

An apt description of the Brexit unprocess. It's like watching a slo-mo of the iceberg ripping through the water tight compartments on Titanic.

JL1
JL1

New elections in this situation would be stupid and destroy the credibility of Tories completely.

Remember May had a majority for Tories previously but she called new elections a short time ago to get a bigger majority since polls were favorable but May's advisors were so INCOMPETENT they had Tories campaign on election promises like cutting pensions and making many other cuts so predictably Labor Party won many seats because they opposed May's election promises of cuts and Tories ended up with no majority and had to seek support from DUP to keep majority.

May needs to be removed by Tories and new Brexit Prime Minister needs to be named and then UK needs to do a NO DEAL Brexit and handle all issues with small bi-lateral deals in every issue with EU like Switzerland does to which Merkel and Macron will agree if they do not want the wrath of German industry and French farmers that would follow a trade disruption with UK.

Other option is that a better Brexit deal can be made in early 2019 after May and her waving a white flag negotiation strategy and her ex-communist adviser and Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins have been removed.

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