Brexit Deal at Last! Let's Crunch the Numbers

-edited

The EU approved the Brexit deal. Will it pass muster in UK parliament?

Boris Johnson needs to swing about 30 vote for his Brexit deal to pass, and that is my expectation even though some insist it will not pass without DUP.

A Telegraph Number Crunch shows that is not necessarily the case.

My comments in brackets.

Mr Johnson has a deficit of 58 votes to overcome from when Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement was defeated for a third time.

Although the new deal has yet to be properly scrutinised, it is unlikely that he'll lose many of the 286 MPs that voted for a deal in that third meaningful vote. This would leave Mr Johnson with the task of winning a net 30 extra MPs over to his cause.

1: The ERG and the "Spartans" [28 possible]

The European Research Group (ERG) consists of around 80 eurosceptic Conservatives who were vocal in their opposition to Theresa May's deal. Most of them voted against it on the first two occasions but for it on the third.

A smaller subset of this group - 28 "Spartans", including Steve Baker - refused to back Mrs May's deal when their other colleagues caved-in.

While he can't get the 30 extra MPs he needs from this camp, there are clear signs that a large number of them may be open to backing his deal.

2: The expelled Tories [4 possible]

Last month Mr Johnson expelled 21 Conservatives from the party after they opposed the government by voting along with Labour and the other opposition parties to remove a no-deal Brexit option from the table.

Just four of this number actually opposed Mrs May's deal at the third time of asking, with the remaining 17 best classed as anti-no dealers rather than ardent remainers.

This means they should be persuadable when it comes to supporting any deal that Boris Johnson is able to secure - although there are no guarantees yet.

3: Labour rebels [50 possible, 19 likely]

This is the group that will, in all likelihood decide whether or not Boris Johnson passes his Brexit deal. Even with the support of all the expelled Tories and the ERG the numbers might not be there - especially if the DUP aren't on board.

Luckily for Mr Johnson there have been consistent rumblings from the likes of Stephen Kinnock - a Labour MP representing a Leave constituency - that they would support a Conservative Brexit deal.

It didn't happen under Theresa May - when only five Labour MPs rebelled against their party leader - but there is a sense that it could be different this time around.

Earlier this month, 19 Labour MPs signed a letter to the EU asking them to agree a deal with Boris Johnson so that they could vote for it, while last month Caroline Flint suggested that up to 50 Labour MPs might back a deal.

While 50 might be on the high side, 19 Labour rebels would in all likelihood be enough to swing the numbers in Mr Johnson's favour.

It means that there could well be enough votes available for a Brexit deal to be agreed by parliament on Saturday. But it will be tight.

Free Vote?

The margin of victory or defeat will likely come down to whether or not Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn will expel any Labour MP who votes for the deal.

If Corbyn grants a free vote, or even a 1-line Whip, it could pass with a huge margin.

My Expectation If DUP On Board

  • 27 Spartans
  • 19 Labour MPs minimum
  • 10 DUP

My Expectation If DUP Not On Board

  • 22 Spartans
  • 10 Labour MPs on a free vote and possibly anyway

In either case, it appears the deal will pass, but if it is that close, perhaps it fails because a few of those who voted for May's deal do not vote for this one.

But it is not even certain that DUP will vote against the deal. The EU will not revise the deal, but Johnson can likely add some sweeteners

With DUP on board, passage is a near certainty. If Corbyn offers a free vote or a one-line Whip it's also likely to pass easily,

Tricks

One trick that Corbyn might pull is to allow a free vote on the deal, then demand it be put to a referendum. Such shenanigans would fail, and probably miserably.

Just Found This - Free Vote

Looks a little convoluted. Here is the rest of the chain:

Amazingly Good Deal

Hannan is a free market advocate. If he likes the deal, so do I.

With one hand tied behind his back, Johnson did amazingly well.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (41)
No. 1-15
Herkie
Herkie

Either way, this deal or no deal the Brexit will finally be done once and for all come November 1, that is all I care about at this point, and the recriminations from the remainers will more than make up for any hardships no deal brings. And, it will also loosen the EU's grip on tenuous members. If the deal goes through the EU will be said to be soft, unworthy, having botched things. But, a no deal Brexit would be as hard or harder for some EU members as for UK and some will be pissed off that it was that badly done. I am not a conservative in most things, but I honestly feel the only honest party in all this was the Tories. All others were manipulative and sneaky and outright unconcerned for the good of the nation or the union, the conservatives took the people's vote and said so be it, it will be done. NOBODY else did that.

Mish
Mish

Editor

On the 18th, and not much will happen until the 19th, we will be within the 14 day window in which it may not be possible to oust Johnson and replace him with a caretaker. He would refuse to stand down IMO.

Yancey_Ward
Yancey_Ward

Reposted from the earlier thread:

I think Johnson has likely done all he could to deliver Brexit. He came up with a deal, and if that deal is shot down by the Remainers, then they will get all the blame for a hard Brexit. Again, the only way to stop Brexit is to replace Johnson, or revoke Article 50, and it increasingly looks like Remain doesn't have the votes to do either one of these.

Now, as for the courts- I wrote the other day that the UK lead court would not balk at declaring Brexit illegal if push came to shove- any legal argument will be grasped at, so I expect the court to rule the deal is illegal, and after that that hard Brexit is also illegal for some other reason. The reasons will always change as each is knocked down. This isn't about the law at this point- it is all politics.

My prediction is that Parliament will pass the agreement this weekend, and that the court will rule it illegal, which will probably be fixed by the same Parliament majority also revoking the law under which the court is planning to base its judgment. Then a Remainer will file some other suit under some other law, and we will go through it again.

I think the key development today outside the deal itself was Juncker ruling out the 3 month extension. He would not have said that if he wasn't sure he was speaking for the EU council.

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

It is painful to see the hype around this. The tradeoff is simple: Tories are desperate to have Brexit done and they are willing to break up the UK in he process. Yet, nobody among the Tories have the honesty to speak about it in public. They are babbling empty hype instead and put their hopes into the short deadline. I know that most politicians are swindlers nowadays but it is still despicable.

The numbers seem close, yes. In my view, Labour Brexiteers are not enemies of Corbyn. He struggles to keep them in all the time. They will at least inform him about their actual decision and he can act accordingly. For the time being, he is acting like he expects rejection. We will see.

No surprise that the outcome is dependent on the integrity of major parties. That is the essence of this whole circus. If they both keep their lines, nothing will pass on Saturday.

djwebb1969
djwebb1969

Hannan is a Conservative and more concerned with the survival of his party than Brexit. This "deal" puts the UK on the path to a break-up of the Union.

lamlawindy
lamlawindy

I'll ask the same question that I asked Deep Purple: Is the break-up of the UK a bad thing and -- if so -- why? I'm not British & have always been supportive of self-determination if secession is the issue, so I'm genuinely interested as to why the loss of the break-up of the Union would be such a calamity.

SJV
SJV

Why were my comments regarding problems in Johnsons Brexit deal removed?

Downtoearth
Downtoearth

Jeff Taylor who is very knowledgeable and broadcasts on you tube is of the opinion that this deal should not be taken . It is too detrimental towards uk and should go for no deal

SJV
SJV

Here is the new withdrawal agreement: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/revised-protocol-ireland-and-northern-ireland-included-withdrawal-agreement_en

Here is the new political declaration: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/revised-political-declaration_en

Since the goal of the Theresa May Withdrawal agreement was to trap UK to be an EU vassal state through the backstop is it too optimistic to think similar traps are not on the new versions?

I believe it is.

Read for yourself and if you find problems or potential problems feel free to post them.

SJV
SJV

Good article on the mistakes Theresa May made in negotiations from an UK MEP for 14 years for the Conservatives (2005-2019):

Based on reading that I see Johnson made some of the same mistakes but he had no time for proper negotiations.

Theresa May is the worst and most incompetent Prime Minister UK has ever had.

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

It seems that Labour is going for an amendment written by Letwin to invalidate the vote, thereby forcing the extension letter. It calls the Benn Act coalition into life in the name of preventing "no deal". From all the amendments, it has the largest choice to go through.

In theory, the deal can pass after the letter is sent but before Oct 31. However, the letter is painful to Johnson and more importantly, the hype could exhaust itself during the weekend. The trick is almost farcical...

The bag of tricks is never depleted on either side.

JustASimpleMan
JustASimpleMan

Labour might as well hope for a unicorn to come sliding down a rainbow bringing Corbyn his top ten wishes. In all the excitement and hurly burly of we have a deal, people forget that the fall back isn't the Benn, bill it's no deal.

As Mish says, we are now in the 14 day window when Johnson is stuck in the chair and you can be certain he has a rabbit in the hat ready for tomorrow morning. His bottom line isn't the deal, it's out by any means on October 31st.

It's going to be this deal or no deal. The idea of maybe this deal maybe not, but only after an extension, an election and a so-called "people's vote" is a fantasy.

avenger
avenger

got to love the europhillia of the remainders/politer than using the maniac term.

brexit forces and brexit is secular in nature.. eu is on the wrong side of this trend, its time is over… it is in secular decline

any short term win for remainders will be a cyclical change in the overall trend. brexit will win out, even if it is pushed away for a while.

most of the comments here seem to be driven by hate for english more than the reality of the world outside and its history

scotland and ireland going it alone, leaving the english for some eutopia, give me a break…what a joke………….

The Articles of Union…

Article 4 gave the subjects of Great Britain freedom of trade and navigation within the kingdom and "the Dominions and Plantations thereunto belonging", meaning what were then the English overseas possessions. = India the jewel in the crown!!

in the last 500 years, excluding all the shenanigans done in the name of empire by the english, in foreign countries ……. It is the english above all others that have done the right thing in their own homeland building systems that everyone relies on

europeans have also indulged in savagery in foreign countries… “belgians in the congo” are the lyrics as well as savagery based on religion and politics in their own homelands

do i really need to start listing all the vile ideologies that the very clever europeans have come up with….. here are 2 for starters; national socialism/communism. Just take a look at the last 100 years!! spain/germany/italy… facists until recently papal bulls anyone…. go and ask the descendants of tatanka iyotake. Columbus day recently

english have been smart enough to avoid all the ideological traps based on religious and political ideology.... I am sure they will get out of this scrape

Given history and tracked record one should avoid anything the europeans come up with like the plague!!!……… European Union is no different.

Should the irish and scottish, that continuously moan about what the english did to them, run off to the eurotopia… but they will come running back

for the scottish pretending to be whiter than white compared to the english, see the link above

for the irish pretending to be whiter than white compared to the english……….. most of the custer type cavalry which wiped out the original americans were irish

my moneys on the english.

Bohm-Bawerk
Bohm-Bawerk

I'm just curious if avidremainer will change his name after all of this?
I do mean this in jest since I always find the comments here enlightening and thought provoking.