Brexit Groundhog Day # 402 (Or Whatever): MPs Attempt Brexit Process Takeover

-edited

Brexit silliness has been ongoing for at least a year. I made up a number. MPs voted to take control of Brexit. So What?

402 seems like reasonable number to start with, if for no other reason than to emphasize the endless groundhog nature of these daily charades.

The Guardian Live Blog reports MPs Start Debate on Indicative Votes as May Hints She Might Reject What Commons Chooses.

The key point is these indicative votes are not legally binding. May has already stated she might reject them. This is just like allegedly taking no-deal off the table in theory but not practice.

These clips are roughly in time order. I find many of them amusing. They are all meaningless.

The bottom line is the UK parliament succeeded in a vote to wrest control of the Brexit process from May. But it's not really binding.

Another Day, Another Resignation Threat

At various stages in the Brexit process there have been reports about pro-European ministers threatening to resign en masse if they don’t get some concession from the government. Those threats have always been withdrawn - normally (but not always) after Number 10 shifted a bit towards what the pro-Europeans wanted. According to ITV’s Robert Peston, something similar seems to be happening again.

Meaningless Circles

More He Said, She Said Silliness

A government source has denied Jeremy Corbyn’s claim that Theresa May suggested splitting the vote on the withdrawal agreement from the vote on the political declaration when they met at lunchtime earlier. The source said it was simply being explained to Labour side that the EU summit conclusions published last week - which could see article 50 extended to May 22 - referred only to the withdrawal agreement. “It was a clarification that came up in the course of a wider conversation,” the source said. The source said that in order to satisfy the terms of the EU Withdrawal Act, the Commons “meaningful vote” had to cover both the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration.

Questions and Fears Over Meaningless Indicative Votes

MP Owen Smith says he made the case for a second referendum when he challenged Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour leadership unsuccessfully in 2016. Speaking in favour of the Lewin amendment, he says he is worried that, if there are indicative votes, the government will try to “bamboozle” MPs by offering them a whole smorgasbord of options, including a second referendum. But that would be “tricksy” and “deceitful”, he says, because a second referendum is a process matter, not an eventual outcome. He says he hopes the speaker would not allow this.

Jenny Chapman, the shadow Brexit minister, says different MPs have different views on how indicative votes could be carried out. She says the Labour amendment and the Letwin amendment both avoid being prescriptive on this point.

No One Willing to Accept the Results of the Indicative Votes

Ken Clarke, the pro-European, asks Barclay when the government will schedule its own indicative votes process. He [Barclay] says Labour criticised the government for not committing to definitely accepting the results of the indicative votes process. But Sir Keir Starmer said Labour would not automatically accept the results either.

To Get the Results on the 10 O'clock News

The debate is over. Labour decides not to move its amendment. That means MPs go straight on to the Letwin amendment, which is being voted on now. This means, if the government does get defeated on Letwin, the result will get onto the 10 o’clock news.

Resignations

Business minister Richard Harrington resigned to back the Letwin amendment.

Letwin Results

May suffers fresh Brexit defeat as MPs opt to take control of indicative votes process by majority of 27

MPs has backed the Letwin amendment by 329 votes to 302 - a majority of 27. That is a much bigger margin of victory than many people were expecting.

Three ministers resigned to back Letwin amendment: Richard Harrington, the Foreign Office minister, Alistair Burt, Minister of State for the Middle East, and the health minister Steve Brine.

Dame Margaret Beckett’s Amendment

Beckett’s Amendment would allegedly force May to recall Parliament from Easter recess to request a further extension to Brexit if there is no agreed deal seven days before the new April 11 cutoff date.

This pertains to the Easter Recess Schedule of April 4 through April 23.

The Beckett Amendment went down in flames 314-311.

Real Cutoff Date

The real decision cutoff date is up to Theresa May. If she desires, it's April 4, not April 11.

Bucking the Whips

Eight Labour MPs did not vote for Letvin. 30 Tories did vote for it.

There is no logic to backing Letwin and not Beckett. But this all appears meaningless anyway.

Hooray! This will make the 10 o'clock news.

Bottom Line

Here's the bottom line that few seem to realize.

MPs can instruct the Prime Minister to do something but they cannot force the PM to do it. The EU deals with heads of states, not MPs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments
No. 1-23
leicestersq
leicestersq

I listened to the Big Lie that remainers keep telling on Radio 5 today. That lie is that Brexit will be economically disastrous. They say that the Government estimates the UK GDP will fall from 6 - 9%.

This figure sounds terrible, and must scare a lot of people. But of course things are not what they seem.

First of all they are dealing with GDP, not GDP per capita. That latter figure is the important one. Brexit was all about decreasing immigration, and of course that means that GDP will be lower than it otherwise was. But GDP capita wont be affected. In fact immigration brings more and more marginal gains to GDP, so we wont lose much here.

Secondly, it is a government prediction. They lied about the economic disaster that would ensue if we voted for Brexit. The proof is that today the UK economy is doing pretty well since the vote. Why on earth do we trust the government when the people in it have a clear remainer agenda?

Thirdly economic models are based on assumptions. As no one has seen an economy leave the EU before, there is no experience on how to model that. So what do they do? They simply assume an economic hit to the economy, and hey presto it is in the eyes of the economic model a disaster if we leave.

If you look at the real effect of leaving the EU, it is very benign. Firstly there is the deadweight of all that money we pay to the EU. Not paying that is a free boost for the UK, and the multiplier effect will magnify the benefit to the UK.

Secondly, we can either go for reciprocal tariffs or negotiate zero tariffs. The first option gives the UK free money from the EU as we are a net importer from them. Very nice, and it will boost the economy some more.

Most importantly, sans the EU, we will restore the single chain of command through the economy. Our government will no longer be able to blame the EU for not sorting problems out. Over time that economic effect will outweigh the two stated above.

It is a shame that the economic argument for leaving the EU isnt put forward and used to shut down the remainer nonsense that leaving is bad. It isnt.

Mish
Mish

Editor

The Guardian

  1. The government would not be obliged to accept any plan deemed most popular with MPs, and in fact May strongly hinted this afternoon that she would reject what many expect might emerge as the most widely-supported idea - staying in a customs union with the EU.
Mish
Mish

Editor

Financial Times just seconds ago

"The so-called indicative votes, tentatively scheduled for Wednesday, would not be legally binding on the government but could be the strongest indication yet of what kind of Brexit deal could pass the Commons."

NOT LEGALLY BINDING

What the hell about this does anyone fail to understand

Mish
Mish

Editor

Boles wants a softer departure Now you brink up Blunt. You still refuse to answer the question. Answer it or shut up. How do you force May to do anything?

You cannot answer that you just spew bullshit.

Yancey_Ward
Yancey_Ward

Mish is correct here- May doesn't have to do what Parliament directs her to do with regards to negotiating with the EU. Mish is also correct that really take control of the negotiations, Parliament will have to remove May as PM. If they aren't willing to do that, then she is in control of the process.