Brexit News Synopsis: France Threatens Veto, UK Poll Analysis, Labour MP Quits

-edited

Even if Boris Johnson submits an extension request, France threatens a veto. Hard line stance has benefited Johnson.

You can lead a horse to water but you cannot force the horse to drink.

The same applies to the Benn act which allegedly forces Johnson to seek an extension.

Allegedly is the key word. It is debatable for the simple reason the bill is constitutionally illegal.

Even if deemed legal, the Guardian Live Blog notes that France has threatened to veto the request.

Guardian News Synopsis

  1. The French government has threatened to veto a further Brexit extension due to the “worrying” lack of progress in the recent talks. The French foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, highlighted the lack of realistic proposals being put forward by Downing Street.
  2. Boris Johnson has moved quickly to replace Rudd as work and pension secretary by giving the job to Therese Coffey. Coffey, who backed remain, is a former environment minister.
  3. John Mann, has confirmed he is standing down as a Labour MP to take up the full-time post as the government’s antisemitism tsar. In his resignation letter he claimed Jeremy Corbyn was the only block to Labour winning a landslide victory at the next election.
  4. Sajid Javid has refused to rule out an electoral pact with the Brexit party at the next election. Asked repeatedly about the idea he would only say: “We don’t need an electoral alliance with anyone.”
  5. Javid and the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, have insisted the government will obey the law on Brexit. But in separate interviews neither could spell out how the government could leave on 31 October without a deal and abide by the Benn bill, which instructs it to seek an extension in such a scenario.
  6. The Conservatives will field a candidate against the Commons Speaker, John Bercow, at the next general election, according to Andrea Leadsom. The business secretary revealed the move, a breach of longstanding convention, as she stepped up her feud with Bercow, accusing him of breaking the rules of parliament by allowing MPs to take control of Commons business.
  7. Angela Smith has become the third MP in a week to defect to the Liberal Democrats. The move, by the former Labour and then Change UK MP, bumps up the number of Lib Dems in the Commons to 17.

My Comments

Despite the threats, I do not trust France. Johnson either needs to avoid submitting an extension request or concocting a scheme that the EU cannot accept.

John Mann quitting the Labour Pary will not get much press but it is significant.

Mann wrote "I am not prepared to the ask Bassetlaw residents to support Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister … I will not lie to the Bassetlaw voters about Corbyn, whose failures over antisemitism and sexual harassment are even worse than his useless leadership on Brexit.

Anybody who has knocked on doors in Bassetlaw knows that there is only one obstacle to Labour winning what should be a landslide at the election and that barrier is Jeremy Corbyn. I have therefore again asked him to resign in order to let the party win power."

Many will no doubt point out the numerous Tory resignations vs this one for Labour.

However, the Tory purge gets numerous Johnson problems out of the way. In contrast, we have a Labour MP stating Corbyn himself is the problem.

OK, supposedly that's just one. However, numerous polls say the same thing.

Corbyn is the Problem

The Telegraph reports Student Support for Labour Plummets to Four-Year Low.

Politico reports that UK voters favor no-deal Brexit over Jeremy Corbyn as PM.

Just 18 percent of voters back the leader of the opposition to become prime minister.

Voters are more opposed to the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister, than Britain leaving the European Union without a deal, according to exclusive polling for POLITICO.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's "do or die" pledge on Brexit is striking a chord with many voters, who now back a return to the ballot box in a general election to break the political impasse.

UK General Election Polls

These polls are all over the place.

Believe what you want, but this is a better perspective.

UK General Election Poll Trends

Labour and the the Liberal Democrats are hopelessly split.The Brexit Party and the Tories are converging.

As noted earlier today (also see link below), Chancellor Javid refused to rule out a Tory Party alliance with the Brexit Party.

If needed to win, it is certain that there will be such an alliance.

Desperation

This is why the Remainers are desperate to prevent an election now despite Labour having asked for one repeatedly over the past couple of years.

Royal Assent

If Johnson allows for Royal Assent (legalizing the Benn Bill) it will only be for reasons we do not yet fully understand. The Bill requiring Johnson to ask for a Brexit extension is illegal.

For details, please see Boris Johnson to "Test Legal Limits", Amber Rudd Resigns, Javid Interview

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (13)
No. 1-8
Country Bob
Country Bob

Dear UK Parliament:

I, Boris Johnson, judge that this bill is illegal on its face. Therefor I will not submit it to the Queen for her assent.

If Parliament disagrees, they should call a general election.

In the meantime, I'm going to go have a beer. And I will be home talking with my constituents after that.

See you all in middle / late October

xoxo Boris

wootendw
wootendw

For those who haven't seen the latest, it appears BoJo will ask the queen to withhold royal ascent. And, according to a professor at the University of Glasgow:

"If the monarch were given clear and firm Prime Ministerial advice that she should withhold her royal assent to a Bill which had passed through the Houses of Parliament, it seems to be the case that the monarch should follow that advice." - Adam Tomkins, School of Law

JustASimpleMan
JustASimpleMan

I'm overjoyed to hear that John Mann is standing down at the next bun fight, even though I think he's by far and away the best Labour MP out there.

His voting record is almost exactly as I would have wanted him to go, he's defied the Corbyn whip at key points and he was first out of the traps attacking the anti-semitism/pro-Hamas problem that's hanging around Labour like a bad smell.

The thing is, he's my local MP and I've been wrestling with how to not vote for a Corbyn government without putting Mann out of a job. All sorted now, I'll vote Brexit. It's a constituency that voted 68% to leave,e so chances are that's going to be one more nail in Corbyn's coffin.

As a lifetime Labour voter I can hardly believe I'm hankering for a Tory government, but I can't support that fool and his three amigos - psycho chancellor, incompetent HS and condescending FCS. Corbyn couldn't negotiate a decent deal on a barrow load of horse muck for his allotment.

Fulgurite
Fulgurite

"If Johnson allows for Royal Assent (legalizing the Benn Bill) it will only be for reasons we do not yet fully understand."

Sounds an awful lot like that wishful thinking "3-D chess" bullshit that Trumptards use to justify Trump's numerous blunders and lies/flip-flops.

The Duran's Alexander Mercouris has some points: https://youtu.be/-fgN7d-qvpo

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

Is Corbyn the biggest problem? Far from it. He is just an old-style hard left candidate. A politician for the little people just like anyone on the Tory hard right. The same interests with different ideology.

The problem is something else: the LibDems, the Change UK, the Greens, the remnants of New Labour and the Tory Remainers. The centre is the problem, they are the lackeys of the elite.

The lackeys are under control only as long as both major parties exist. If any of them falls apart, the elitists will take its place and transform Britain in their image. Do you dislike Corbyn? Fine. But be careful what you wish for.

A wise Tory leader would work with Corbyn against the elitists. However, if Tories were wise, the Brexit referendum would not have happened...

Binkley
Binkley

Can't escape the feeling the whole thing's a charade to scrap Brexit without it looking like anyone is responsible.

Herkie
Herkie

Well, now Bercow has resigned, Commons Speaker John Bercow to stand down: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49639828

If there is no early election his departure will be October 31.

So, if Brexit does not happen on 10/31 who will the next speaker be?

My head hurts.

avidremainer
avidremainer

Any more straws you wish to clutch Mish?