In a recent interview with CNBC, Chiavarone says there’s at least a decade left in this rally due to a demographic tailwind that’s soon to hit.
“Millennials are entering the workforce, but their wages are going to be under pressure their whole career,” he explained to CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “They won’t make enough money to pay down their debt, fund their life and fund retirement where there is no pension. So, they’re going to need equities.”Furthermore, Chiavarone says bull markets typically last 15 to 20 years, and, by his calculations, this one hasn’t even topped 5 years yet.“The risk is not being in this market,” says Chiavarone, who helps run the Federated Global Allocation Fund FSTBX.The firm’s current price target is for 2,750 on the S&P SPX, by the end of next year and 3,000 for 2019.“We are probably frankly low on both of them,” he said. “Tax reform could push up the markets.” That’s not to say there won’t be some pain along the way, specifically the potential for a recession in 2020 and 2021, according to Chiavarone.What’s an investor to do in that case? “Buy the recession,” he said.
Millennials who don't have any money, but do have tons of student debt, will be investing in stocks, even if they lose their job in a recession, because they are worried about their retirement.
Someone remind me of this post in a few years.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock