California Ground Zero in Upcoming Real Estate Bust

Looking for a severe real estate bust? Try Australia or California. Both represent ground zero.

The California Association or Realtors (CAR) just posted some Dismal Statistics.

  • The California housing market posted its largest year-over-year sales decline since March 2014 and remained below the 400,000-level sales benchmark for the second consecutive month in September, indicating that the market is slowing as many potential buyers put their homeownership plans on hold.
  • Existing, single-family home sales totaled 382,550 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 4.3 percent from August and down 12.4 percent from September 2017.
  • September's statewide median home price was $578,850, down 2.9 percent from August but up 4.2 percent from September 2017.
  • Statewide active listings rose for the sixth consecutive month, increasing 20.4 percent from the previous year.
  • Inventory reached the highest level in 31 months, with the Unsold Inventory Index reaching 4.2 months in September.
  • September year-to-date sales were down 3.3 percent.
  • Tax reform, which increases the cost of homeownership, also is contributing to the decline, especially in high-cost areas such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Orange County.

Inventory Rising Fast

That image thanks to [Calculated Risk](

Inventory up 20%. What's the problem?

The same problem as down under: Supply of Homes on Australia Market Soars Rapidly, Major Crash Coming

Goodbye California, Hello Boise

Sky-high housing prices in the Golden State bring an echo boom—and new neighbors—to other Western states.

Bloomberg notes Boise and Reno Capitalize on the California Real Estate Exodus

Affordable Migration

Also, please consider my article Affordable Migration: Goodbye Chicago, New York, LA - Hello 5 Cities in Texas

Even liberals have finally had enough of California, Illinois, and New York.

Related Housing Articles

  1. Thud! Sept New Home Sales Plunge 5.5% from Dramatically Revised Lower August
  2. Housing Continues to Weaken: Starts Decline 5.3%, Permits Down 0.6%

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (21)
No. 1-10

Mish, your website is really F'd up. I want to click on an article but instead a tic-tac-toe mishmash of ads pops up. I'm going to Peter Schiff instead.


I just wish they'd leave their tax and tax and tax politics in California instead of trying to ruin Colorado too.


And yet they will move to "red" republican, low tax, low regulation, men should pee in men's bathrooms, pro-Constitution, pro 2nd Amendment, right to work, non-sanctuary city, etc. states and RUIN THEM.

You would think liberals/progressives would learn that their values and beliefs DESTROYED where then lived. And change.

But, like parasites, when they discover the host they infect is dying, they move to a new host.

And start the cycle again...


"Even liberals have finally had enough of California, Illinois, and New York."


This demise of California theme reminds me of Yogi Berra's quote: "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded".


Victor Davis Hanson explains California better than anyone.