Census Department Projects "Minority White" by 2045: Under 18 by 2020

Boomer demographics and birthrate projections suggest the US will be "minority white" by 2045.

“The aging of baby boomers means that, within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history,” said Jonathan Vespa, a demographer with the U.S. Census Bureau. “By 2035, there will be 78.0 million people 65 years and older, compared to 76.4 million under the age of 18.”

Race and Ethnicity

  • The non-Hispanic White-alone population is projected to shrink over the coming decades, from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million in 2060 — even as the U.S. population continues to grow. Their decline is driven by falling birth rates and a rising number of deaths over time among non-Hispanic Whites as that population ages. In comparison, the White-alone population, regardless of Hispanic origin, is projected to grow from about 253 million to 275 million over the same period.
  • The Two or More Races population is projected to be the fastest growing over the next several decades, followed by single-race Asians and Hispanics of any race. The causes of their growth are different, however. For Hispanics and people who are Two or More Races, their high growth rates are largely the result of high rates of natural increase, given the relatively young age structures of these populations. For Asians, the driving force behind their growth is high net international migration.


  • By 2020, less than half of children in the United States are projected to be non-Hispanic white alone (49.8 percent of the projected 73.9 million children under age 18). In comparison, about 72 percent of children are projected to be White alone, regardless of Hispanic origin.
  • The share of children who are Two or More Races is projected to more than double in coming decades, from 5.3 percent today to 11.3 percent in 2060.
  • The racial and ethnic composition of younger birth cohorts is expected to change more quickly than for older cohorts. In 2060, over one-third of children are projected to be non-Hispanic white alone compared with over one-half of older adults (36.5 percent compared with 55.1 percent, respectively).

Minority White

The Brookings Institute has charts and the story behind "Minority White". Here are more images.​

“Minority White” Tipping Points Differ by Age

Because minorities as a group are younger than whites, the minority white tipping point comes earlier for younger age groups. As shown in Figure 3, the new census projections indicate that, for youth under 18–the post-millennial population–minorities will outnumber whites in 2020. For those age 18-29–members of the younger labor force and voting age populations–the tipping point will occur in 2027.

In 2060 the census projects whites will comprise only 36 percent of the under age 18 population, with Hispanics accounting for 32 percent.


White nationalists are terrified by this statistic which is why they want to shut down immigration and expel as many immigrants as possible. Ironically they also want to stop birth control. So much for a consistent message.

The above thanks to reader Sechel.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

No. 1-25

Demographically, the aging baby boomer group is one of the drags on growth in the US. Many have reached the age where they are beginning to retire. As they do so, their skills and expertise are removed from the economy. Their health care needs increase. They start drawing on social security. They begin to sell their investments in retirement accounts. They are no longer accumulating assets and they are consuming more services. At this point, social security can keep up, but as retirement numbers swell over time, it is going to become a strain on the nations finances (since the US hasn’t actually invested the contributions into a sustainable fund). This is what Lege is worried about. He thinks it will be a disaster that will bankrupt the country. Whereas I believe that it will merely be a drag, as benefits are reduced over time, little by little.


@nic9075: So what you are saying is that the degrees don't matter. But before you said that a higher percentage of people having degrees will make the country stronger. You are funny.


Does it even MATTER in today's job market and economy where millennials are doing extremely well if not better than those of the same cohort were doing in the late 1990s-2000s?? Did you know even a sanitation man or a subway conductor or Bus driver can make at least 150,000 a year in nyc. The city is in the best financial shape and more than able to meet pension obligations

Did you know that in the workplace and in life in general skills and what degree you have accounts for 30% and actually being likeable or actually getting things done is the other 70%
The media would be writing article after article about the booming economy if Hillary was in the white house just like they did in the late 1990s when her husband was in the oval office
And another fact. The majority of people who work in software engineering and web development do not have Computer science or engineering degrees and even the majority of people working on Wall Street don't have a Finance or economics degree.


@Realist Where is this great Utopia you live in Realist? You mention you don't care about who is in political power yada, yada, yada....you are one naive dude! I guarantee you would have cared about who was in political power let's say had you been a land or business owner in say pre-communist China or Cuba right before the Marxists came into power? And I could give you a ton more historical examples like that. You are living in a naive child-like dreamworld if you don't care who is in political power.


It’s interesting that so many want to talk about race. No remarks about your struggling health care system or underfunded social security? That’s what I was focusing on.