Census Department Projects "Minority White" by 2045: Under 18 by 2020

Boomer demographics and birthrate projections suggest the US will be "minority white" by 2045.

“The aging of baby boomers means that, within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history,” said Jonathan Vespa, a demographer with the U.S. Census Bureau. “By 2035, there will be 78.0 million people 65 years and older, compared to 76.4 million under the age of 18.”

Race and Ethnicity

  • The non-Hispanic White-alone population is projected to shrink over the coming decades, from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million in 2060 — even as the U.S. population continues to grow. Their decline is driven by falling birth rates and a rising number of deaths over time among non-Hispanic Whites as that population ages. In comparison, the White-alone population, regardless of Hispanic origin, is projected to grow from about 253 million to 275 million over the same period.
  • The Two or More Races population is projected to be the fastest growing over the next several decades, followed by single-race Asians and Hispanics of any race. The causes of their growth are different, however. For Hispanics and people who are Two or More Races, their high growth rates are largely the result of high rates of natural increase, given the relatively young age structures of these populations. For Asians, the driving force behind their growth is high net international migration.

Children

  • By 2020, less than half of children in the United States are projected to be non-Hispanic white alone (49.8 percent of the projected 73.9 million children under age 18). In comparison, about 72 percent of children are projected to be White alone, regardless of Hispanic origin.
  • The share of children who are Two or More Races is projected to more than double in coming decades, from 5.3 percent today to 11.3 percent in 2060.
  • The racial and ethnic composition of younger birth cohorts is expected to change more quickly than for older cohorts. In 2060, over one-third of children are projected to be non-Hispanic white alone compared with over one-half of older adults (36.5 percent compared with 55.1 percent, respectively).

Minority White

The Brookings Institute has charts and the story behind "Minority White". Here are more images.​

“Minority White” Tipping Points Differ by Age

Because minorities as a group are younger than whites, the minority white tipping point comes earlier for younger age groups. As shown in Figure 3, the new census projections indicate that, for youth under 18–the post-millennial population–minorities will outnumber whites in 2020. For those age 18-29–members of the younger labor force and voting age populations–the tipping point will occur in 2027.

In 2060 the census projects whites will comprise only 36 percent of the under age 18 population, with Hispanics accounting for 32 percent.

Observation

White nationalists are terrified by this statistic which is why they want to shut down immigration and expel as many immigrants as possible. Ironically they also want to stop birth control. So much for a consistent message.

The above thanks to reader Sechel.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (42)
No. 1-25
Sechel
Sechel

white nationalists are terrified by this statistic which is why they want to shut down immigration and expel as many immigrants as possible. ironically they also want to stop birth control. so much for a consistent message.

Latkes
Latkes

Good bye USA, you had a good run.

shamrock
shamrock

Something seems off about the mixed race coming in at 3.8%. In 2010, 15% of new marriages were mixed race (http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/02/16/the-rise-of-intermarriage/) so it stands to reason the overall population will trend much closer to that number in 30 years.

AWC
AWC

In light of all this, I'm confident pols will keep 'em all polarized and at war with each other. Segregation, by any definition.