China in State of Panic as Coronavirus Death Toll Rises

Mish

As the official death toll mounts so do the demands and restriction on Chinese citizens.

Mass Quarantine Camps and Wartime Conditions

Quarantines are in place by land and by sea. People cannot leave their homes but once in three days in at least 6 Chinese cities.

The death toll in China is at least 565 as the lockdown enters a third week.

10 More on Cruise Ship in Japan Test Positive

Close confinement on a cruise ship is not exactly where you want to be as 10 More Test Positive for the coronavirus.

About 3,700 people are facing at least two weeks quarantined on the cruise ship. "Experts are worried the virus could spread in such a congested and enclosed space," he said. "They have also advised passengers not to leave their rooms."

Taiwan has banned all international cruise ships from docking on the island effective from Thursday.

It earlier turned away the World Dream liner that is now docked in Hong Kong. Three passengers on board have shown symptoms of coronavirus.

Wartime Conditions

The city of Wuhan is in wartime conditions as officials Round Up the Infected for Mass Quarantine Camps.

Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.

“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

The city has set up makeshift shelters in a sports stadium, an exhibition center and a building complex. Some went into operation on Thursday.

When Ms. Sun inspected a shelter set up in Hongshan Stadium on Tuesday, she emphasized that anyone who should be admitted must be rounded up, according to a Chinese news outlet, Modern Express. “It must be cut off from the source!” she said of the virus. “You must keep a close eye! Don’t miss it!”

Rising Count of Americans Quarantined on Military Bases

Two more flights evacuating Americans from Wuhan, China, the center of the coronavirus outbreak, are scheduled to land in the United States this week.

The first carried 195 Americans out of Wuhan last week; they are quarantined on a military base in Riverside, Calif. Two more flights landed in the United States early on Wednesday morning, and the 348 passengers, mostly American citizens, will be held at Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield, Calif., and at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego.

All of the passengers have been ordered to remain in quarantine for 14 days from the time they left Wuhan.

Bianco Update

Coronavirus Deaths Surge, No Containment In Sight

Yesterday, I commented Coronavirus Deaths Surge, No Containment In Sight

Nothing changed today.

Is this a Hospital or a Coronavirus Deathatorium?

Also yesterday I asked Is this a Hospital or a Coronavirus Deathatorium?

Today, whatever you want to call these structures, people are being forced into them.

Report Your Temperatures Daily

Bloomberg reports China Doctor’s Fate Is Murky; Social Posts Deleted

There was confusion about the status of a Chinese doctor who had issued an early warning about the coronavirus, after social media posts by Chinese state media saying he had died were deleted and replaced by messages saying attempts were being made to save him.

The city of Wuhan told residents to begin reporting their body temperature daily, and the large port city of Tianjin said it would restrict residents’ movement, part of steps across the country to stop the coronavirus outbreak from spreading. In Beijing, the Chinese government voiced anger as countries placed more restrictions on travelers.

Dr. Li Wenliang aged 34, has died from the virus he alerted authorities to in December

Locked In, Literally

China is forcing people into quarantine camps, restricting movement, locking people in their homes (literally), demanding daily temperatures updates from everyone, and now bitching about about travel restrictions of other countries.

This is truly a WTF state of affairs.

China is now in a state of panic.

​No official counts are believable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (100)
No. 1-28
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

One might wonder whether the best reaction to this thing is to go outside to lots of diluting air.

At postmortem time, it might be interesting to compare the death tolls between those who were locked up and those who did the locking.

Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat

Mish - I agree that China appears to be in a state of panic. Someone (I forget who) likened this to a Chernobyl event, which was said to have hastened the fall of the Soviet Union. The CCP is always most concerned about social order.

But I have a question. How long should the US wait before it begins preparation for virus expansion out of an abundance of caution? The reasons we should be thinking about this are the apparently unknown incubation period, and the similarly unknown degree to which the virus is contagious from asymptomatic patients.

There is no evidence in my little state that any preparations are underway except recommending hand washing.

Kings-Cross
Kings-Cross

The speed and efficiency with which this is being handled makes me want to vote for a socialist old man, force through an insurance scam that will bankrupt the country while creating partisan animosity, and have it controlled by the geniuses at the DMV / DPW / Post Office / TSA.

I especially like the tight spacing on the "quarantine" beds in the photo Mish included. Public healthcare is just like public housing projects. If you are not infected when you are shoved in their by an uncaring bureaucrat, you will definitely be infected by someone in a neighboring bed!

But this is America, so Bernie's health disaster will be run by the corrupt wet farts that tried to count votes in the Iowa primaries.

The US health care system is a mess, but that doesn't mean corrupt politicians and uncaring bureaucrats can't make it much much worse

elisheva2
elisheva2

Mish
can you do one of your neat airplanes- in airplanes out graphics in china, and also ships going in and out? I would like to know how much movement in and out of china there really is. a few cruise ships doesn't mean squat. maybe a report on real economic impact from curtailed movement or lack of . I rely on you! and feel free to throw in your humor. thanks for what you do.

Kings-Cross
Kings-Cross

Mish wrote: "No official counts are believable."

Simple solution: have the DNC hire some ex-Obama bureaucrats to design an app for that.

Bernie thinks the same people who wrote that app (and the Obamacare website) should decide who gets medical care and who gets put into quarantine to die off the books

elisheva2
elisheva2

Ok, today , walking at the mall, there are two Chinese massage stores. First one I stopped at the guy didn’t speak English and thought I wanted a back rub! No

The next stop was a younger guy who did speak English. I asked how things were in Wuhan, did people need anything? He said no. no big deal people just staying home and yes they had food and all they needed. He said really only in Wuhan, not other areas. Everything ok again, no big deal.

So there you go.

So if I come down with it , you know where I got it! :)

us city 10% Asian pop

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

YEAH... whatever Mish.... your doom and gloom stories don t take root, that 's obvious ; stocks are up worldwide, algos seem to know more than you do ! The Corona virus won' t end the world...just yet ! Since TBFC I ve been thinking it would be the financial system collapsing, creating Mad Max situations, but now, more and more I think we re safe for a long stretch, there simply ain t no no fckn alternative for the mess Sapiens apes created, when you come to think of it.....Is there ?

Kings-Cross
Kings-Cross

Abbott: Hu has this under control.

Costello: That's what I'm asking! WHO has this under control?

Abbott: Exactly! Hu is the previous President. WHO has this under control

njbr
njbr

Mass quarantine situations with hundreds of beds next to each other pretty much guarantee mass infection (read about army barracks and Spanish flu). But who to trust with self-quarantine? Once a couple of people in the mass quarantine situation comes down with the Coronavirus, it guarantees that all of the others are stuck there for the duration in the plague-house.

jivefive99
jivefive99

For all the criticism of stereotypical behavior, the Chinese government itself is a stereotype that is totally predictable. You are never going to get the truth out of them because truth is the threat. A small number of old (Chinese) men and a few women own and run all of China, and stereotypically, there is nothing an old man wants to hear that is a challenge to his authority. Why did the people flee the farms when dictator Farmer Brown owned everything he surveyed (including his wife)? We can only hope that dictatorships around the world (and potentially here in America in the next 5 years) achieve red-hot moments where the country's old bossy guard comes crashing down.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Dow 30,000 by next week. Maybe tomorrow.

#Winning

Wilindan
Wilindan

Look, I think that, whether or not the latest coronavirus outbreak originated from a wet market in Wuhan, the Chinese government should have cracked down hard a long time ago on the trade in bats and snakes and the like for food - it's just plain unsanitary.

On the other hand, I fail to see the constructiveness of the damn if you do, damn if you don't type of posting on the coronavirus that you are engaged in, Mish. If the Chinese don't urgently adopt stringent measures to control and contain the spread of the coronavirus, commentators like you would be quick to blame them for incompetent handling of the situation. However, now that we are seeing these stringent measures - which by their nature is not pretty, especially as they bump up against resource constraints - the Chinese government is being accused of engaging in authoritarian and inhumane practices?

I for one have to give the Chinese government some credit for doing things like building a huge hospital in 10 days or so to house the sick. At least they are trying to deal with the problem with concrete action intended to help the sick. A purely authoritarian regime probably would just be interested in using its military to cordon off affected cities without much regard to treating the illnesses.

Why is it that you, Mish, go into lurid details repeatedly about a household being quarantined in China, while ignoring the news about a cruise ship containing a huge number of passengers being quarantined in a Japanese port? Rather than admitting the passengers into a quarantined medical facility for treatment and observation, the Japanese government is simply keeping this ship off its land, while the coronavirus continues to spread among the passengers, as you can imagine it would do in such a crowded and confined space. Why are you not lambasting this type of practice, but repeatedly criticizing the Chinese government for trying to build temporary hospitals for the sickened and then a permanent hospital in 10 days, and working hard to do triage in the mean time? Is it because China insists on being a sovereign, rising power, whereas a US "ally" like Japan bends like a reed to US wishes?

DrJ50
DrJ50

I have monitored the spread of the virus outside the immediate Chinese vicinity. It is fairly uniform except for 2 areas. No cases reported SA and Africa. More likely is the inability to confirm cases. I worry what may be actually brewing there. The Chinese have a presence there, yet crickets?

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

@caradoc-again: 2019-nCoV does not need to be genetically engineered to be a more transmissible version of SARS. Occam's razor says it is not engineered.

With respect to comments about the lines of beds in the stadiums, China has officially explained these are emergency overflow for confirmed cases from the hospitals, which now only have capacity for severe cases. They anticipate mild cases (and presumably, recovering cases) will be placed in these shelters. If I understand correctly, a case that relapses to being "severe" would be readmitted to a hospital. (UPDATE 2-7-2020: Dailymail has a story that says all suspected coronavirus cases and close contacts are being put into the quarantine centers. Ugh. I guess they are "Deathatoriums")

In the pile of poor information on the internet about this bug, there are a few that appear to be reliable. 2019-nCoV attaches to exactly the same receptors as SARS, deep in the lungs (ACE2). There may be excellent crossover from the previously developed SARS therapies to 2019-nCoV. The bad news is, the official W.H.O. case fatality ratio (CFR) for the SARS epidemic is high, depending on age (<24yr=1%, 24yr<45yr=6%, 45yr<64yr=15%, >64yr=50%+).{1} Nobody is saying the CFR rate of 2019-nCoV is as high as SARS, but in at least some cases 2019-nCoV is known to cause acute pneumonia and kill quickly after onset of symptoms if supportive care is not given. {2} A CFR similar to SARS would explain China's tremendous effort to contain this. Their actions are certainly impressive. I hope they are successful.

Also of interest, the study about 2019-nCoV killing more men than women because of a greater preponderance of ACE2 receptors in Asian men is likely wrong. That study was too small to be meaningful. However, in China roughly 50% of men smoke whereas <2% of women smoke. A more likely explanation is that smoking is a bad risk factor for this bug, and that likely explains why more men than women have been afflicted in China. {3}

Sources:

{1} On the web: who.int/csr/sarsarchive/2003_05_07a/en/
{2} Dr. John Campbell and his Youtube Coronavirus videos.
{3} Dr. Seheult of "medcram.com," Youtube Coronavirus Epidemic Update 12

SMF
SMF

I know a person that works in the California State Capitol. She told me that the Chinese knew about this way before December 2019. She has a background in this type of subject.

Don't know if this is true or not, but way back during the California Energy Crisis I was told by a person working for PG&E about the crisis 6 months before it went public.

LB412
LB412

China may get this under control but you know it has to be in Africa, India, and Pakistan by now. Good luck stopping it in those regions.

bolto
bolto

A news station from Taiwan indicated how the death toll number is released by China everyday happens to work out to be exactly 2.1%. This is another evidence that they are definitely manipulating numbers and not releasing true numbers, which has always been a concern.

Mike2112
Mike2112

If you launched this virus at an opposing army it seems like it would do a great job in reducing fighting effectiveness rather quickly.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

And people were led to believe that "climate change" was a threat.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Well, now we know what the rows and rows of hospital beds in the Gym, Stadium, and exhibition hall are for. They are for confirmed cases that aren't serious, so that they can confine the people and prevent them from spreading the disease. Are these measures draconian? Yes, but they are also necessary. The lesson here is that it is critically important to stop the spread early, when there are 10 cases, rather than when you get to 20,000 cases. If the virus breaks out in the US, the US will not be able to institute controls like this. China foolishly ignored it when it was at that stage, and now they face the consequences.

JimmyInMinny
JimmyInMinny

Please imagine the economic effect of this (empty train stations & streets in Beijing) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K19YfNr7Vqc

Mish
Mish

Editor

"Why is it that you, Mish, go into lurid details repeatedly about a household being quarantined in China, while ignoring the news about a cruise ship containing a huge number of passengers being quarantined in a Japanese port?"

1: Are there any lurid details on the passenger ships?

2: Any death hiding?

3: Are they putting up bars on people's rooms locking them in?

4: Any cruise line doctors threatened for reporting details?

One can ask a dozen such questions. And there is no reason at all to believe anything China says.

Criticizing other countries over flights while doing what it is doing is contemptible. Locking people with bars is dangerous and criminal.

China deserves ZERO praise

bolto
bolto

If positive and death numbers reported by China are real, this would be one mysterious virus where it effectively maintain 2.1% death rate at all times.

Feb 3, 2020
20,438 positive, 420 death, fatality rate = 2.1%

Feb 6, 2020
with more than 31,000 cases, 636, fatality rate = 2.1%

Now, why would a government want to manufacture numbers like this? What is the motive? What good can possibly come of this?

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Every time I see this story I am wondering how those "quarantined" people get food & other basic necessities.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

When will Mr Market realize the effect this is going to have on world trade? I keep thinking the smart money has been setting up a bull trap the last few days so they can get out at higher prices (helped by the PPT of course).

Ensign_Nemo
Ensign_Nemo

The Chinese response to this has been very authoritarian and obviously has not yet succeeded in halting the spread of this disease.

However, I'm not at all certain that the United States would do better in a similar situation.

Right now, the President and the Speaker of the House won't even shake hands. They don't treat each other with the same level of courtesy and decorum that two complete strangers would show to each other in almost any place in America (some parts of some cities, such as Baltimore and Chicago, are exceptions to this rule).

If these are the people who will be in charge of the American response to a similar epidemic of coronavirus, are they likely to make things better, or are they more likely to make a bad situation even worse?

I suspect that even the need to prevent a pandemic is not sufficient reason to force our politicians to cooperate for the greater good.

njbr
njbr

The progress of this virus seems to be exposure to first symptom in about a week or so. Then, not so different than a cold for the first week. On the seventh day or so ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) will start for some and force them into the hospital. The hospitalization will last for two plus weeks.

I have no idea what proportion of the infected population will require hospitalization but just for example--if 1 or 2% of the population requires isolation hospital care for a period of two or more weeks, I can confidently say that there is not a hospital system in the world that is prepared for this.

The US hospital system has been trending toward stays of a day or so for all but the most critical cases and there are few, if any, public hospitals with large isolation units.

It is easy to see how overwhelmed any medical system will be.

And who will pay?

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

Interesting backhanded statement made by the President's Coronavirus Task Force in today's press briefing. They said U.S. hospitals are nearly full handling this year's Flu cases and they separately emphasized that everyone needs to get a Flu vaccination shot.

That seems like solid reasoning to me, but they should have directly made the point rather than sounding as though they were concerned about the Flu. That point being: "Everyone who has not had a flu shot, please get one so that there will be space in the hospitals for 2019-nCoV if we need it."


Global Economics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY