"Cocked and Loaded" Trump Explains Why He Called Off Air Strike on Iran

Mish

Ten minutes before a strike Trump called off an air attack on Iran citing concerns over the number of deaths.

Cocked and Loaded

No Hurry to Confront Iran

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Says He’s ‘In No Hurry’ to Confront Iran

“We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die,” Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter. “150 people, sir, was the answer from a General.”

Iran said Friday it had warned the U.S. spy drone to turn around before shooting it down, and that another spy plane with around 35 crew members was flying near the drone, but Iran chose not to target it.

The downing of the drone Thursday came after Iran said the drone had flown into Iranian airspace with transponders turned off. The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Aerospace Force, Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, said Iran warned the drone four times, and that the drone would have transmitted the warnings to its “central stations.”

Drone Debris

The incident has set off a scramble to retrieve the parts of the $130 million spy plane. Iran also unveiled Friday what it said was debris from the downed drone collected off the shore of Kuh Mobarak in Iran. “This is in fact evidence of the U.S. air invasion of our territorial waters,” said Mr. Hajizadeh, adding that the parts had been sent to Tehran.

Location Dispute

Specific Claim

The Iranian Claim is very specific.

Reasons to Lie

Both sides have strong reasons to lie but specific claims sound more convincing.

Regardless, imagine an Iranian or Russian drone flying 25 miles from New York City.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (29)
No. 1-18
WildBull
WildBull

The debris in the pictured is weathered. I doubt it is this drone.

lol
lol

He's like Obama,a bluffer,Trump got no stomach for war and the Iranians know it,Saudi's know it.Will Tehran's next target be a carrier??

Menaquinone
Menaquinone

President Trump controls the narrative and the news cycle. The nattering nabobs of lame stream media are side lined.

shamrock
shamrock

I'm guessing this is not the behavior Trump was expecting when he scuttled the nuclear deal and declared economic war on Iran. I'm sure he wanted to make 1 minor change to it, like extending it from 10 to 12 years, and then declaring the worst deal in history to suddenly be a tremendous deal. Now what's he going to do? they are shooting at us.

Sechel
Sechel

Just based on previous incidents I'm prone to believe the Iranians that the U.S. drone was in their air-space. That said as an American citizen I believe we were doing the right thing. I do find it unsettling and a sign of the times that I find that the Iranians may be more credible than our own administration.

Per the NY Times story, It was unclear why Mr. Trump would have been getting information about possible casualties so late in the process of launching military action. Such information is typically discussed early in the deliberations between a president and national security officials.

KidHorn
KidHorn

I think Trump did the right thing. We have nothing to gain by launching an attack and everything to lose. The best outcome is if Iran was at fault and we don't respond. It would give us leverage during future negotiations. Losing a single drone is meaningless from a military point of view.

Sechel
Sechel

Something wrong with the decision making process to launch a strike if he was calling it off after about potential casualties. Should have been brought up far earlier in the process

Blacklisted
Blacklisted

It's okay Mish, you can compliment Trump. Bush, Clinton and Obama would have caved to the military industrial complex, and Trump did NOT.

thimk
thimk

10 minutes to go, trump calls it off. JIm Dandy to the rescue. /sarc

mark0f0
mark0f0

Can someone tell me what's wrong with Iran? Seems to me they're a country on the other side of the planet, possessing no borders with the United States, and having minimal to no trade with the US.

This Iran 'crap' has Bolton's fingerprints all over it.

Itsarap
Itsarap

LOL@The commenter's on here acting as if war with Iran wouldn't collapse the GLOBAL economy!!!LOL!!!!!!

wootendw
wootendw

I suspect this entire Iran fiasco, from the tanker 'attacks' to the drone, is one big bluff to scare the Iranians into thinking they would be bombed if they didn't make a deal with Trumpet. They have called the bluff and, to demonstrate their honesty, published a video of it while denying the tanker attacks. The rest of the world finally has US figured out.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Trump is a blowhard. I doubt he ever came close to retaliation on Iran but reality TV in him needed to make it look like he did so he can differentiate himself from other presidents who would have done nothing as well.

vboring
vboring

The only reason this story is interesting is because of the Russia and China connections. Putin has said attacks against Iran will escalate into at least a regional conflict. China hasn't said anything publicly that I can find, but has obvious vested interests.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"Such information is typically discussed early in the deliberations between a president and national security officials."

All the more likely this was staged theater

HubbaBuba2
HubbaBuba2

I'm near apoplectic about Trump dumping the nuclear deal w/ Iran. What a "lose-lose" game that has put us into with near no realistic upside. Today I see Trump says 'Iran's ICBM's must be part of any Iranian deal'. That's it - I'm full apoplectic about Trump dumping the Iran nuclear deal. WT# would Iran agree to dump it's sovereign right to ICBM's? Who would? I mean N. Korea won't give up it's nukes as that would lose all their bargaining chips. Much less ive up their EXPANDING ICBMs. Heck, and who in the Middle East WOULD CHOSE TO UNILATERALLY DISARM?? Why doesn't Trump just insist Iran's leaders send him their wives?!? There's no way any decent sized country is going to relinquish their ICBM rights. THAT IS AN UNREASONABLE DEMAND - on top of already unreasonable demands.

Snow_Dog
Snow_Dog

“The US will become the world's highest cost producer of goods.”

Yes, largely due to the continued strength of the $USD. That never gets mentioned in all the long winded discussions about tariffs.

Sechel
Sechel

More and more we're seeing that Trump failed to do any scenario analysis and never anticipated Iranian reaction nor consider what his counter-moves might be. If you attack Iran you have to be prepared to occupy it. Iran is no small country. We saw how Iraq played out and Trump states he's against an Iraq style move which leaves him with no great options.

Iran deal wasn't perfect but it was being followed according to the intelligence. Trump was only against it because it wasn't his deal. We can only hope that Trump comes up with a new deal that is simply a rebranded version of the deal he killed and allows everyone to save face and move forward.

We had a path on Nuclear but not one on missiles and support of hezbollah and hamas etc. What Turmp did was throw the baby out with the bath water. He didn't like the fact that the deal had a sunset provision so in typical Trump fashion failed to realize what he did was accelerate that sunset


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