Collapse in Global Trade

-edited

International trade volumes are negative year-over-year for the first time since the great recession.

The Netherlands Bureau for for Economic Policy Analysis has an interesting report called the World Trade Monitor.

  • World trade volume increased 2.3% month‐on‐month (growth was ‐2.1% in December, initial estimate ‐1.7%). Due to the US shutdown, no data on US import/export values in January are available. The 0.0% import/export volume growth for the US is a technical assumption.
  • World trade momentum was ‐1.8% (non‐annualized; ‐1.0% in December, initial estimate ‐0.9%).
  • World industrial production increased 0.0% month‐on‐month (‐0.1% in December, unchanged from initial estimate).
  • World industrial production momentum was 0.0% (non‐annualized; 0.4% in December, unchanged from initial estimate).

World Industrial Production

Those few bullet points and charts constitute the entire report.

The collapse in global trade is both telling and worrisome.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (9)
No. 1-7
Zardoz
Zardoz

But we’re winning, right?

shamrock
shamrock

Such hyperbole, every single metric is within the range that it's been for the last 10 years. And data from the US is missing, so who knows what the real numbers are.

CCR
CCR

So the World Trade Monitor spits out an anemic economic report that doesn't include the world's largest economy? Next my whiskey will be zero proof.

AWC
AWC

Bullish, BTFD, CB's got printing presses.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

The emperor is wearing no clothes.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"So the World Trade Monitor spits out an anemic economic report that doesn't include the world's largest economy? Next my whiskey will be zero proof."

For one month -good grief - and it was Trump's fault

Carl_R
Carl_R

I doubt that adding US data would change much. Remember, the other side of the trade data is included. Thus, where there is US-China trade, the China side would be in, just not the US side. There isn't anything too surprising here. There is negative rhetoric about trade worldwide, so it's to be expected that world trade data is soft. So, what does it mean? Not much...yet. If the vitriol subsides, and new trade deals are worked out, trade will pick back up, but if the negative rhetoric and trade wars escalates, we could be seeing the beginning of a downwards spiral in global trade, and that would trigger not a recession, but a depression.