Conservatives Make Huge Gains at Labour's Expense in London

-edited

Recent polls show a big uptrend in Tory support in greater London, a traditional Labour stronghold.

Survation says the Tories have a 46.6% to 29.1% advantage over Labour.

Unfortunately, as a Tory backer, I do not believe that chart. It's possible, but more than likely it is shows huge sampling error.

Here are some additional polls.

London Deltapoll Nov 21-23

DeltaPoll has a 38% to 30% advantage for the Tories. I don't quite buy that either, but it is more likely.

London ComRes Nov 20-21

Comres sees things as a 39% to 39% tie up from a Labour advantage of 39% to 32% on November 19.

To me that seems about right.

Most of the polls show the Tories picking up support.

YouGov was an exception. It has a 44%-29% advantage of Labour on Nov 21-22.

I asked YouGov earlier today for complete regional breakouts like ComRes does and they directed me to a report that was extremely stale.

ICM Poll

As I was typing, ICM came out with another poll. It has the Tories at 41%, Labour at 34%, and the Liberal Democrats at 13%.

The research dates were Nov 22-25.

Is that possible?

Yes. Damn near anything is possible. But despite drop to a 7% net advantage, note that all of the gain was due to a Labour pickup over the Liberal Democrats.

It is widely recognized that Liberal democrat Jo Swinson had a disastrous performance in BBC debates a few days ago.

Disastrous Swinson Performance

Assuming that is the cause of the Labour lift, one has to wonder if it continues, reverses, or does nothing from here.

My admittedly biased guess is that it reverses.

Regardless, please recall that ICM was the last holdout on a sub-10% Tory lead and this did little but take that back.

Labour Party Poll Trends

Except for one obscure data point, the entire ICM Labour trendline is above everything else.

That does not make it wrong, but it does make it very questionable.

Tory Party Poll Trends

I believe it is reasonably safe to throw away the Opinium trendline as garbage.

But also note the ICM Tory trendline is the lowest. At least it is in the tight cluster, albeit at the bottom end.

Tight Trends vs Wide Trends

If one visually removes Opinium, the Tory polls are in a very tight range and have been since Nov 12.

In contrast.the band of polls for labour is widening.

Meanwhile, it appears Labour is faltering a bit in London, on average if we toss away You-Gov and Survation outliers.

ICM posted no details yet so we cannot further dive into the polls.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (20)
No. 1-8
RonJ
RonJ

I hear Uber had a big loss in London.

lamlawindy
lamlawindy

If the Tories and Labour are about even in London come election day, then a whole host of Labour MPs in marginals are in trouble.

Greggg
Greggg

Maybe it wasn't a sampling error. Maybe it was intentionally rigged like political polls often are.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

I can't help but wonder if there isn't a bit of fatigue with the current Mayor. And since Boris was a generally upbeat, well-liked previous Mayor, and thus obviously well-known to Londoners - perhaps he's pulling in more support for personal vs party political reasons.

Western politics and politicians generally suck these days. (Disturbingly so, and doubtless because of the steady decline of a robust, educated, dedicated aristocracy - or elites if you prefer.) But Boris is better than average, both at home and abroad, and could actually do well with a) a solid working majority and b) the millstone of Brexit more or less liberated from around the neck of the Tory Party once the initial withdrawal is finally effected.

I suspect the British people are beginning to sense this and if so we should see the polls continue to trend up in his favour.

Isn't it grand how short the UK electoral season is? Truly much better system.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Interesting take:

"Prime Minister Boris Johnson has the task of gaining 25 marginal seats from Labour and the Lib Dems while holding on to 25 Conservative slim majorities. On December 12, 650 MPs will be elected to the House of Commons, but experts say this election in particular will see many seats change hands, dramatically throwing the fate of Brexit into question. According to The Sun, the Labour-held seats targeted by Mr Johnson, just 17,071 voters have to swing to the Tories to turn them blue. In the Lib Dem constituencies it requires a swing among 4,349."

If this premise has merit, it might explain the firmness with which the Tory Party has rebuffed the Brexit Party.

djhowls
djhowls

Labour have just banned Muslims from protesting LBGT lessons in Birmingham - this will go down like a pork chop in a Mosk

Scooot
Scooot

The Andrew Neil interview of Mr Corbyn is worth watching.