Construction Spending Reportedly Down 1.1%, Reality is Simply Noise

Construction spending in June fell 1.1%. Volatility and revisions remain the norm.

Of all the noisy reports, construction spending is the worst. Econoday economists expected spending to rise 0.3%, instead it fell 1.1%.

However, the commerce department revised May from +0.4% to plus 1.3%.

Here it is August, and we have wild revisions for May. Second-quarter GDP has already been reported. Because of timing issues (the report is very late) and continual massive revisions, I may throw this data series away as totally useless.

The whole chart smacks of nothing but noise.

The report itself is noise, but I do think a housing slowdown is underway.

  1. Housing Prices Hit "Breaking Point" Leading to Collapse in Demand
  2. Apartment Construction in 2018 Expected to Decline 11% After Strong 6-Year Run
  3. Existing Home Sales Decline Third Month Despite Rising Inventory
  4. Real Hourly Earnings Decline YoY for Production Workers, Flat for All Employees
  5. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunge 12.3% in June, Permits Down 2.2%

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (3)
No. 1-3
oudaveguy98
oudaveguy98

Mmmm. Not all beans need counting, but it seems like this one should be relatively easy to compile given the long lead times in the permit process and the duration of the projects anyways. Do the revisions offer an explanation for the noise and recalculations? Are state and local agencies responsible for submitting data and are they frequently late?

Realist
Realist

This parade of numbers that attempt to show what the economy is doing, and where it’s going, are at best, an educated guess. But they do provide something for Mish to comment on, which I'm sure he appreciates. Personally, I like to focus on the medium term (1-2 years) trends and ignore the day-to-day noise. But then, I don't run a blog. As a result, I will stick with my slow growth scenario over the next 1-2 years, provided Trump doesn't eacalate his trade wars.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Mish - I like your site but it has way too many irrelevant posts. If something is noise why even post on it ? I realize getting traffic is a must but I'm afraid you've succumbed to quantity over quality with so many blog posts in a day.