Containment was always going to fail. It was a failed strategy that Trump decided on that the experts never supported. We lost a critical month in planning.
So some interesting facts. Gloves and masks will be in short supply because we get those mostly from Asian supplies. Additionally there are only about 20 facilities that can test for the virus currently which is not sufficient. I think they'll correct this soon but right now its an issue.
Last night's press conference was sort of funny.
Trump was contradicted almost in real time by ... experts who flanked him....
‘’’We could be just one or two people....’ Trump said....
“‘We can expect to see more cases in the United States,’ [HHS Sec.] Azar said.
“‘We do expect more cases,’ Schuchat [of CDC] said.”
Fascinating to consider that we might see a real economic depression. As I've stated in earlier posts, I'm a retired high school and community college history teacher. The coronavirus outbreak is obviously paralleled in the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. And now a potential economic recession to mirror the Great Depression? Not fearmongering, just musing.
$15 grand a week (day)to stay in a hospital,more than the Palms,i doubt Obamacaid will cover that and you just need one homeless dude to catch the (bioweapon)virus and wala an entire city decimated..billions (trillions)in hospital costs.
Trump proclaims We are "Very, Very Ready for the Coronavirus, for Anything"
How long till DJT in front of the camera - preaching All Is Well and ..., uhh,... we don't want to do anything to upset the Beautiful Stock Market - wearing a MASK?
We are living in a real-world version of "Idiocracy", and people expect the government to be competent?
Oh great, im in Kansas. I suspect in order to prevent panic this crap will be everywhere before they admit to it. Meaning everyone thinks they are safe at the moment when in reality it's all around. Good times.
Should I buy the dip? Let me ask the Treasury market.... Nope.
If the Flu-B virus is actually Coronavirus, it has swept through Minnesota.
I wouldn't bank on that though. Very few pneumonia cases along with fatalities. Way below the 2%ish rate.
"A person in #California—NOT exposed to anyone with #coronavirus & NO travel to #COVID19 areas—"
that is irresponsible for the doctor to tweet. of course they were exposed to someone who had it. unless the virus is spontaneously appearing out of thin air
Interesting, early this morning I saw a report that Iran had 100 cases of Coronavirus and 20 had died. That implied a 20% mortality rate, but now hours later they are reporting 246 sick with 26 deaths. That is about 13% and it seems to only make sense from the prospective that new cases are vastly outstripping the rate at which people die, so that the number of sick is constantly going up faster than the rate of deaths. But, just as in China when wew had that one day last week where deaths spiked overnight the deaths will catch up to the real mortality rate. So far in Iran that was much higher than anywhere else. Of course healtcare facilities have a lot to do with it.
So, how do you contain something that can (as documented) potentially survive up to 9 days on a surface and exist in a contagious carrier who is asymptomatic (exhibits no symptoms at all) for up to 27 days?
Ineffective/inconsistent testing, reinfection news coming now, and inept bureaucratic responses globally, ain't helping matters. Reanalysis, after the fact, will provide actionable clarity.
We are going to get outbreaks in the States, and this Solano Country guy could represent the first.
That being said the idea that Covid-19 is widespread in multiple places already and the CDC is covering it up because a guy and his friends "crowdsourced" it, is bunk. Lots of viruses cause pneumonia and we treat it every winter. We should stop signal boosting this guy.
"While it is possible that this virus, like many other respiratory viruses, will not survive as readily in warm temperatures, it will be encountering a “completely susceptible” U.S. population, said Maciej F. Boni, an associate professor of biology at Pennsylvania State University.
Hardly anyone in this country has been exposed to the new virus (other than some travelers to China and their family members), so there’s been no chance to develop immunity. That means the coronavirus — even if it turns out to be hampered somewhat by rising temperatures — has plenty of opportunity to infect people and get passed along, said Boni, a member of Penn State’s Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics."
I'm intrigued by the lack of leaks from the early Wuhan antiviral trial of Gilead's Resdevivir. It's probably a ten day intravenous regimen. If so, they should have known for several days by now whether it helps or not. If not, I'm sure people like Eric-Deng would be finding a way to tell us by now. The other thing to watch would be Gild's price...which is running, and whether there's a scramble to ramp production.
Re-read the Internet from 1992 onward .. re: Y2K. This thing smacks of a "media push" to get people to watch TV news. Maybe Im just getting old - I see these "world coming to an end" narratives around every corner.
Going back to this data set: The current reading on the Diamond Princess is 705 cases (about 20% of the ships population). 4 deaths (about 0.5% of the people who got ill). 36 in "serious condition"(death plus serious is about 6% of the population that got ill). 10 reported as "recovered".
OK, in a mythical country of 300 million, 20% falling ill would be 60 million.
Of that 60 million, 3.6 million would get seriously ill--requiring some form of medical intervention. And if the medical care is provided as optimally as for the Diamond Princess people, only 300,000 deaths would occur.
That is the best case scenario based on the only experiment-like set of data that we have.
Thanks for spelling this out :|
Experts claim 70% attack rate.
Mythical country now has 210 million ill.
Of that 210 million, 12 million would need medical care and because of the speed that the virus spreads, you could probably say that at peak, that would equate to 3 million people needing beds.
A fictional nation has 792,000 beds today, most of which are already occupied with sick people.
Therefore there is no way that medical care can be provided as optimally as for the Diamond Princess.
Which is probably why a not so fictional country called Britain is predicting +/- 500,000 deaths despite being 1/5th the size of your fictional country.
Throw in many health care workers getting infected and going off line won't help situation.
If things turn out bad, best hope is for everyone to limit exposure (self quarantine) and stretch out period of infection. IOW, not everyone getting sick at once swamping the system.
It appears Wuhan's downfall was everyone racing to hospital (infection hotspot) to get tested ... and contracted virus there.
There's a lag between infection and death. We have no way of estimating the death rate until the number of infected has reached a somewhat steady state for a period of time.
Thanks for the extrapolation. I’ve been thinking along the lines of this comment thread, but hadn’t done the math.
Cruisers are not a representative population. Not the youngest, or healthiest vacationers.
Those patients who require ICU level intervention will occupy those beds for about three weeks, further crimping availability.
So if you should have a near-death case, you need to get it early rather than late. (Not really the best survival plan...)
Indeed, I had not appreciated that the Chinese view hospitals as something to be visited on the slightest provocation. If you look at where the clusters are outside China (old people's homes, hospitals and ....ummm.....cruise ships) that was probably the worst move.
If the number of confirmed cases is growing like it is, there must be millions of people infected worldwide.
Hey Mish, don't leave us hanging...what is going on in San Diego County?
Laugh of the Day
HERE'S how you control an epidemic:
North Korea's First Confirmed Coronavirus Patient Shot Dead