Coronavirus Can Spread in Poop and On Doorknobs

Mish

Let's take a look at some of the latest reports on the spread of the coronavirus.

Wenzhou, Pop 9 Million, Bans People From Leaving Their Home

BNO says this is confirmed with local authorities.

Coronavirus Global Map

The above map from NYT Tracking the Spread of the Outbreak.

The Wuhan coronavirus has sickened more than 17,300 people in Asia, according to statements from health officials. Many other cases are suspected but not confirmed. As of Monday morning, at least 362 people have died, all but one in China.

The NYT comments "Various epidemiological models estimate that the real number of cases is 100,000 or even more. "

Death Total Hits 426

The death count is at least 426 Confirmed, and I suspect far more in actual practice.

Officials in China's Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, announced 64 new deaths from the novel coronavirus on Monday. That brings the overall death toll from the virus to at least 426: 425 deaths in China, and one in the Philippines.

Officials also announced 2,345 new cases of the virus, bringing the total number of cases to more than 19,700.

You don't lock down tens of millions of people over 426 deaths.

Secretly Hiding Body Bags

Jim Bianco Update on Non-China Infections

Coronavirus Uncertainties

Accuweather comments Death toll rises as public health officials work to combat coronavirus

"Though we may be in clinical trials within a year, I do not expect a coronavirus vaccine to be commercially available within a year," Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told U.S. News and World Report.

“At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people,” CDC officials said.

"We're not 100 percent certain how close you have to be to somebody to get this virus. We're certain that if you're within 6 feet of them for some sort of a prolonged period of time, that would put a person at risk," Glatt continued. "We're not sure if there's a greater distance that would also put a person at risk. And we're not sure exactly how long a period of time you need to be exposed to somebody."

China Accuses US of Spreading Fear

Excuse me for pointing out China has locked down 60 million people and has undoubtedly hid the number of deaths.

China has a lot of gall to bitch about flight bans

Carnival Princess Cruise Ship Quarantined

Two New Cases in Germany

Oil Down 20%, in Bear Market

How much of that is slowing global economy in general?

Hussman on Slowing Number of Cases

260 US Cases Under Investigation

Coronavirus Can Survive 5 Days Outside the Body

Even on a Doorknob

In in China's Guangzhou Province Coronavirus Detected on a Doorknob

And in Feces

2019-nCoV virus discovered in patient stool and rectal swabs.

Question of the Day, Yesterday

Wuhan Ghost Town

Economic shutdown in a town of 11 million. The video shows footage of Wuhan, unfortunately with verbal BS about the impeachment.

More than 100 Princeton Students in Self-Isolation

About That Greatest Trade Deal Ever

Other than these items, everything is under control.

Jim Bianco just pinged me with this comment "Not all countries update everyday. Japan reported 20 on Friday. Has not updated since. Ditto Singapore (which was at 18 on Friday)."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (56)
No. 1-15
CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

With any luck, faecal contamination is an important rout of infection. That would mean good sanitation can help limit spread.

Something I notice that is peculiar about the coverage on 2019-nCoV: there are zero cases reported in the continent of Africa. From what I have read, China has a tremendous amount of activity in Africa. Even if warm weather does hinder this bug from spreading, I would expect at least a few cases there from people who were originally exposed in Wuhan. Australia proves cases can be brought to warm weather locations via air travel. Are there no cases, or no tracking capability in Africa? If they do have a major outbreak of 2019-nCoV, would we know it?

Broadcast news reports are still pumping misinformation. No discussion about the R0. Bug compared to Flu with Flu shown as “killing less than 1%” compared to 2019-nCoV “killing 2% or less, depending on how many people are actually infected.” Also, there was this jewel: “The strain of Wuhan coronavirus is new, but the coronavirus is not new. Here are four examples of coronavirus that are harmless.” I wonder who writes the scripts for these broadcasts? Whoever they are, they sure feel it is their obligation to steer public opinion in a particular direction by presenting incomplete information as total fact.

njbr
njbr

There are parts of the world that a death here or there wouldn't be noticed until truly epidemic deaths are underway. And that country will not have the means to do what China is doing. Given that you can travel virtually anywhere in the world in 24 hours then we'll be off to the races.

About this time, today, the refusal to enter quarantine effect will start to kick in. Under-reporting and gambling on being in the 97% survivor club.

Carl_R
Carl_R

It's not just "China", virtually all of the deaths are from Hubei province (Wuhan). Of the 427 deaths reported so far, all but 13 are from Wuhan. Furthermore, 72% of today's newly reported cases are from Hubei as well. Today China reported 3269 new cases, of which 2345 were from Hubei.

While we don't know how accurate the data from China is, the data from the rest of the world seems to indicate that with maximum healthcare, the death rate is lower than the early Chinese data indicated, probably in the 2% range, not 6.5%, and that if countries act quickly to ban travel and to aggressively quarantine suspected infections, it can be controlled, at least for awhile. Now we have 2 deaths outside of China mainland, one in Hong Kong, and one in the Philippines (one was also reported in Malaysia, but doesn't count for some reason). If you divide 2 by the number of infections 7 days ago outside China, you get 2/105=1.9%. That still makes it 40 times deadlier than the regular flu.

I suspect that the extremely high immediate spread in Wuhan was due to the idiocy of hosting a massive buffet for 100,000, or whatever it was, at a time when the virus was already known to be spreading. That gave the virus a massive jumpstart, allowing it to spread from just people who went to the Wuhan Wet Market, to people from all over China. It also led to a surge of patients so large that it totally overwhelmed the medical facilities in Wuhan, and a very high initial death rate. It also led to dramatically overestimating R0, and the fatality rate.

lol
lol

Real death toll,half a million? This is what happens when you mess with bio weapons and you have no real clue what you're doing!Chicoms will have to put down millions or whole cities will go dark.....and that's what coming to a Walmart near you.

aqualech
aqualech

Over-played. Mortality #s nowhere near that level. But highl-disruptive disease, none-the-less. Maybe not a mature bio-weapon but an experiment?

njbr
njbr

If the virus can be carried in the intestine, when does that infected person stop being a vector for the virus???

If the answer is never, we're in trouble because there will be a lot of carriers that don't wash their hands.

njbr
njbr

Bioweapon?

Yeah sure, China decided to kneecap their economy by releasing a bioweapon in a wet market.

Greggg
Greggg

We are going to have to wait for a country other than China to be invaded sufficiently by this virus to get accurate contagion and death rate.

ksdude69
ksdude69

I've already known the surface to host transmission is what's going to be the problem. Then you have people that think they're ok with just face masks. So let's say you concoct a full body suit then you will have decontamination issue. Everything you touch with your gloves will have it. How and where would you remove your suit? Go in to store and undress before getting in your car? Then what about all the crap you bought in the store? Poop is my last worry and at that point I wont be using public restrooms their bad now as it is.

AussiePete
AussiePete

The Dr. Mercola website is reporting that the Wuhan market which is ground zero for the coronavirus is located just 20 miles from China's recently opened maximum security virology laboratory, "designed for the study of the world's most dangerous pathogens". The year before it opened, "Tim Trevan, a Maryland biosafety consultant, expressed concern about viral threats potentially escaping the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory...."

Another interesting snippet from this article was the stat that the SARS virus killed not a single child, and only one person under 24, while those infected over the age of 50 had a 65% mortality rate.
.

St. Funogas
St. Funogas

AussiePete, curiously, viruses often kill only certain groups of people and skip others, such as the SARS virus not affecting children as you mentioned. Sometimes they know the reasons and sometimes they don't get it figured out. The Spanish flu was odd in that it didn't kill anyone over the age of 65, which is normally the age group that suffers the highest mortality rate. But when you factor in that they were all exposed to the 1889 Russian flu and apparently had enough immunity from that, then it makes sense.

Here's the most encouraging thing I've seen so far about the coronavirus. The link below is a study that indicates that Asian men are way more susceptible than females in general, white men, and African American men because the ACE2 receptors where the nCoV enters human cells are more widely distributed within Asian men. The sample size is small but will hopefully translate to a much lower infection rate among non-Asians.

Also, this coronavirus is still showing to be most closely related to a bunch of coroaviruses carried by wild bats, so I'm having a hard time swallowing the bio-weapons theory.

njbr
njbr

In the modern world it is interesting how the imagining of people's control of their world requires the nefarious plots of humans as opposed to the random reinventions of the natural world.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

It is possible that not using bleach and other cleaning agents (like Lysol) will kill you. From my travels in Asia, bleach and cleaning agents are not used in most places. Maybe doing that would have prevented the spread of all viruses including coronavirus.

Ken Kam
Ken Kam

A sober analysis in MoA shows the rate of infection and death are slowing down / flattening. We can expect an end to the nCoV epidemic in a few weeks.


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