Coronavirus Quarantines: How Long Should They Be?

Mish

China wants 700 million people to start returning to work. But questions abound.

China's Conflicting Mission

About 700 million Chinese have not gone to work for weeks. China now want them back on the job.

But China's effort to Restart the Economy While Fighting Outbreak poses many new questions.

Premier Li Keqiang, the country’s No. 2 official, and the country’s cabinet called for major construction projects to begin across the country as soon as possible. State-owned enterprises were told to cut rents. Banks were ordered to keep interest rates low. City governments were told to make sure that workers who went home for the Lunar New Year holiday could reach their jobs.

The two most powerful political bodies in China — the Standing Committee of the Communist Party Politburo and the government’s cabinet of ministers — each issued similar orders. Both groups produced hints of the fairly broad stimulus program that many economists expect soon.

None of the announcements directly addressed the difficult balancing act that China now faces: how to put more than 700 million workers back on the job without creating conditions that could allow the virus to spread.

Boeing Sounds Alarm About Virus Impact

France24 reports Boeing Sounds Alarm About Virus Impact on Aviation

Boeing issued a stark warning Wednesday about the impact of the deadly coronavirus outbreak, saying there was "no question" it would hammer the aviation industry and the broader economy.

"You have several global airlines that have limited their traffic in and out of China, that's revenue," said Ihssane Mounir, the US plane maker's senior vice president of commercial global sales and marketing.

"You have business trips not happening, you have cargo not going in and out.

"It will have an impact on the economy, it will have an impact on revenues, it will have an impact on these carriers... there's no question about it."

Cancelled Flights

Non-China Infections Update

Biggest Reason for Declining Cases is Change in Definition

Accuracy of Tests in Question

Up To 24 Days Before Symptoms Start Showing

Chris Martenson reports Coronavirus: Up To 24 Days Before Symptoms Start Showing

Jumping the Gun?

The surest way to spread the disease is to send 700 million potential carries back to work in an effort to jumpstart the economy.

Here are a couple of image clips from the video.

Key Question

The above clip refers to the fact that Japan was unable to test all the people on a quarantined cruise ship.

Japan Confirms 39 New Virus Cases, 174 Total On Cruise Ship

The AP reports Japan Confirms 39 New Virus Cases, 174 Total On Cruise Ship

Here's the interesting part: "The virus was confirmed in a official who participated in the initial quarantine checks the night the ship returned to Yokohama Port near Tokyo on Feb. 3. The quarantine official is being treated in the hospital."

Japan is reconsidering the need to test everyone. Good idea. But if Japan is struggling with testing 3,800 what the heck is going on in China?

The obvious solution is to change the definitions so there are fewer cases.

New Key Questions

  1. But how long will the ship quarantine now need to be?
  2. 24 days? Starting when?
  3. Just how crazy is it to send people back to work with so many similar questions in play?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (62)
No. 1-17
CanuckDan
CanuckDan

Yet somehow the stock market keeps going up as if everything is great. MWC was also cancelled today. At what point will the market price in the virus?

njbr
njbr

....The coronavirus produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of patients, Dr. Sylvie Briand, head of WHO’s Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness division, told reporters on Monday. About 15% of the people who contract the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care, she said....

And this is the real problem that has produced the chaos in China-- the 3 to 5% needing intensive care.

For example, Minnesota, a state pretty well served by medicine has a population of about 5 million. If 50% of the people had some form of the virus, that would be 2.5 million people. Of that, 3 to 5% might require quarantined intensive care (75,000 to 125,000 people). Based upon the typical stay of at least 10 days to recover, that would be 750,000 to 1,250,000 patient-days of quarantined care required.

Well, in Minnesota in 2017, there were approximately 500,000 to 600,000 patient-days of care over the year. This was for all cases in all hospitals (non-quarantined for the vast majority).

How does a medical system serve a case-load that would go from 500 thousand to 1.25 million or 1.75 million ? Not very well. And throw in the quarantine requirements. How would that mix with the standard patient population that has the normal cancers, heart problems, broken bones, bullet wounds, etc, etc ?

Chaos is the only possible result.

shamrock
shamrock

That ship quarantine just seems insane. Everyday people contract the virus who didn't have it the day before. The ship is not safe. Everyone needs to be removed to a more sterilized environment.

lol
lol

PLA using it's slave labor populous as guinea pigs to test the latest bioweapon before deployment to the US to covertly destroy the US military.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

'When it becomes serious, you have to lie'.

...

All politicians lie. It is second nature for them. No doubt there has / will be lies on virus. Time will tell if these lies cause more deaths than if a more proactive approach taken ... rather than assurance of normalcy soon.

sangell
sangell

Interesting item from NHK. A health ministry official who went onboard the Diamond Princess to collect questionaires has been infected. He was wearing gloves and facemask but not full body protection. This virus seems to be a lot more infectious than what is realized. Remember the known infections on board are removed for treatment and passengers are confined to their cabins. I assume crew are not allowed to roam at will either and decontamination is being done so nosocomial infection should be difficult but its not!

thimk
thimk

Will China have to dip into its foreign reserves ?
Might china become a net importer of goods , particularly food stuffs ?
Have CEOs realized the weak link of an infallible cheap China supply chain ?

We might not be effected here stateside with a health issue but the economic
implications are nothing to sneeze at. Stay tuned (don't touch that mouse)

njbr
njbr

The virus has been reported to be spread through spray from sneezing and coughing, contaminated surfaces (both snot and feces), and yesterday, via just the virus hanging in the air.

Surface contamination from corona viruses typically last up to 9 days. Not sure how long it hangs in the air, but the measles virus remains in the air for about 2 hours after the infected person was in the room.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Could be paranoia talking, but this is beginning to feel like opening salvos in long-promised asymmetric war campaign.

USA has only 1 KN95 (antivirus) mask manufacturer supplying 7%. Rest come from Mexico or China. Masks made in Mexico are slated for China.
All aspirin, Vitamin C, other basics, most antibiotics either made in or need ingredients only available from China.

The virus is from biowarfare labs, whether released intentionally or not who knows, but in any case it's not a natural phenomenon. Is China, for example, sitting on a known cure and using that as leverage in negotiations? Or is this a practice run to ensure they have good national containment practices and can release it more widespread fashion later once they have worked it out?

In any case the combination of the lock on international medical supplies AND it being a biowarfare product is highly suspect.

Why American citizens pay so much for healthcare and defense industries who have left the country entirely vulnerable to biowarfare attack by 100 civilians arriving on airplanes is beyond me. The US Government is a lazy, criminal, absurd operation which needs to be disbanded ASAP and then start over.

Hmmm, that's the sort of thing a pandemic is good for, come to think of it..

PS. Meanwhile a President is impeached, his only viable opponent is a globalist billionaire, a pandemic is looming on the horizon and the stock market is providing the best shorting opportunity in a lifetime.

St. Funogas
St. Funogas

Does anybody have a link to the 24-day incubation period research mentioned in the article above?

The US released those first 195 evacuees after 14 days with no signs of sickness and from the sounds of it, they were just screened, not actually tested? Does anyone know if they were tested for sure?

thimk
thimk

@sangell And As of last Wednesday, about 80 percent of the 2,666 passengers were age 60 or older, with 215 in their 80s and 11 in their 90s. Large elderly manifest .

frozeninthenorth
frozeninthenorth

Latest numbers are that infection can be 24/40 days dormant before the carrier finds out he's sick...that's not good, but it gives a benchmark

shamrock
shamrock

I just heard on Bloomberg that there are currently at least 77 clinical trials for treatments.

njbr
njbr

the bottom has just blown out of the boat of lies...

new confirmed infections today over 14,000

......BREAKING: Epicenter of coronavirus outbreak reports 14,840 new cases, including clinically diagnosed cases, and 242 new deaths....

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

Results: As of 26 January 2020, a total of 8866 patients including 4021 (45.35%) laboratory confirmed patients were reported from 30 provinces. Nearly half of the patients were aged 50 years or older (47.7%). There was a clear gender difference in incidence with 0.31 (male) vs. 0.27 (female) per 100,000 people (P<0.001). The median incubation period was 4.75 (interquartile range: 3.0-7.2) days. About 25.5%, 69.9% and 4.5% patients were diagnosed with severe pneumonia, mild pneumonia, and non-pneumonia, respectively. The overall CFR was estimated be 3.06% (95% CI 2.02-4.59%), but male patients, ≥60 years old, baseline diagnosis of severe pneumonia and delay in diagnosis were associated with substantially elevated CFR. The R0 was estimated to be 3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05)

Guys this thing is bad. It’s worse than they are telling us. Without medical care it’s down right terrible. Get prepared. It’s coming to your town.

Carl_R
Carl_R

There was a huge jump in both reported cases and death reported today. Over 15,000 new cases, compared to under 2,000 yesterday, and 251 deaths, nearly three times the number reported yesterday. Mostly the deaths are coming from Wuhan, which reported 230 in one day.

The reason for the jump is that China is now using lung imaging to diagnose it, rather than just nucleic acid tests. Apparently some of newly diagnosed were diagnosed that way after they had already expired, confirming that some have been dying of it without being diagnosed as having it.

Also in today's news, two women being quarantined in Russia after returning from China managed to escape. If they turn out to be contagious, they could spread the disease to many, many people before they die. I expect to see more of this, and to be honest, I'll be surprised if some people who believe they don't have the cornavirus don't try to escape the cruise ship.

WildBull
WildBull

The CCP has decided that the economy is more important than the death toll from the virus, and maybe that the virus is unstoppable in any case. The obvious choice is to send everybody back to work and sacrifice a few percent of the population for the greater good. Communists in general don't mind spending a few million lives here and there to achieve their goals.


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