Coronavirus Tweets of the Day

Mish

Here's some interesting Tweets from the elbow bump to long 21-day quarantines to deaths to toilet paper thefts.

Quarantine Period Extended to 21 Days

About Those Tests

Companies Pile on Debt

Credit Strains on China - Michael Pettis

Handshake or Elbow Bump?

Toilet Paper Theft

Micheal Pettis in France, Can't Find Masks

Diamond Princess Ship Count Hits 355

Sad Milestones

Passenger Ship Traffic Down 49%

Early Stages of Pandemic

Global Switch Shortage

Nothing to See Here

Bianco Chart Update

Bill Gates vs Average Tweet

Bianco Mortality Rate Charts

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1229403469863440389

Mike "Mish" Shedock

Comments (29)
njbr
njbr

21 days?

Time to update US quarantine time.

Those cruise people will be in quarantine for another 3 weeks if the CDC is awake.

No. 1-13
Roadrunner12
Roadrunner12

"Hong Kong (CNN)Nearly half of China's population -- more than 780 million people -- are currently living under various forms of travel restrictions as authorities race to contain the spread of a deadly virus."

Carl_R
Carl_R

With another 99 confirmed cases, the most remarkable thing about the Death Princess, er, Diamond Princess is that there are no people reported to have escaped, or attempted to escape, and at the other extreme, there is one American family who is still enjoying the stay sufficiently that they declined to be evacuated. It would seem that at the current pace, every person on board will be infected within another couple weeks.

The Diamond Princess will soon enough give us something we have needed, a finite number of cases which we can track separately to monitor progress. Currently, of 454 cases, 19 are in serious/critical condition. I think it's a reasonable guess that none of those are from the people detected in the last day or two. If they are all from cases detected a week ago, that would mean 19/135 are in serious/critical condition, or 14%.

Then, with that data, we can work backwards in China. If 14% of cases typically end up in Serious/critical condition, then if there are 11,272 cases in critical/serious condition in China, we can guess that a week ago there were about 80,500 cases rather than the 40,500 cases officially reported. That is consistent with not catching/reporting all the mild cases, but not consistent with the most extreme views on under-reporting by China. Of course, they could be under-reporting serious/critical cases, too.

njbr
njbr

Vertical quarantine now in Hong Kong...

Chun Yeung Estate in Fo Tan, which has 4,800 flats, will be used as Hong Kong’s fifth quarantine site as four other facilities are already full.....

Some flights from Hong Kong to US still flying last week.

Tens of thousands of people waited in line to cross the China/HK border before it was closed.

....Hong Kong International Airport handled 5.7 million passengers and 33,210 flight movements in January 2020, decreases of 11.7% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively.

Cargo throughput dropped 10.4% to 359,000 tonnes when compared to January 2019.

Overall passenger traffic to/from Mainland China, South Korea and Southeast Asia recorded the most significant decreases in January.

Visitor traffic remained weak, showing a year-on-year decrease of 43%. However, travel by Hong Kong residents saw a surge during the Chinese New Year holidays, amounting to a monthly growth of 25% year-on-year....

SMF
SMF

Since this situation has exposed too much dependence of Chinese supplies, will countries and companies shuffle their supply lines a bit after this is over?

bolto
bolto

Another example to show why the total death number does not seem correct. A film director and his family (total of 4) died of this virus with a matter of 3~4 weeks. See one of the links: https://star.ettoday.net/news/1647103

This news is available in many Chinese news outlets. If this virus is only <5%, why all 4 people (100%) living together in his family died? And if percentage is higher than 5%, what is the real number of total death so far?

WildBull
WildBull

Bolto: Sometimes families are more or less sensitive to a particular virus. Depends on the genes that they carry.

sangell
sangell

The case numbers being issued by China ( and cited by the WHO and other 'official' news sources are as worthless as Bernie Madoff's numbers to his clients. If one 'cruise ship' is reporting 1 go 2% of passengers getting infected EVERY day then what is going on in China is off the charts. Singapore seem to be doing a good job ( for now) in tallying its cases and sources of infection and Japan is trying too but the numbers are still small.

shamrock
shamrock

"As it turned out, that was very ineffective in preventing spread on the ship," Fauci told the USA TODAY Editorial Board and reporters Monday. Every hour, another four or five people were being infected.

1 Reply

Anda
Anda

Fauci didn't provide how he knew infections were after quarantine, maybe he doesn't know if they were. Some would be after quarantine from same cabin, there are almost two hundred asymptomatic of the total at present and quarantine has been roughly two weeks. Incubation is up to two weeks also, maybe more. So cannot draw conclusions that easily. If we saw it was all one area of the ship, or a class, or how many were sharing cabins, it would be easier to figure out what is going on maybe. I can't find this info on the web.

abend237-04
abend237-04

For me, Jim Biancos's chart of total cases vs 'serious' cases is the most troubling yet, but certainly explains the building of 10,000 bed "hospitals" in Wuhan. Simple linear extrapolation of only the WHO reported numbers yields a US death rate in a typical flu season of around 880,000 deaths, or roughly 26X the 34,000 dying of flu this past year.
It probably also accounts for Xi casually, publicly denouncing the practice of eating wild meat two days ago. That's a start.

Roadrunner12
Roadrunner12

“How patients go see a doctor is a crucial factor,” Takaji Wakita, the head of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, said Sunday. “What we’ve come to know so far is there are many who only went through mild symptoms. … Those with mild symptoms are advised not to visit an outpatient doctor but call the consultation center.”

The guidelines advise that people seek a consultation if they have a fever of 37.5 degrees or above for four days or more, experience difficulty breathing or feel severe drowsiness. Medical staff at the center will then advise which hospitals a caller should visit for treatment."

wootendw
wootendw

Eventually, over 2 billion people may succumb to the coronavirus.

Herkie
Herkie

Total confirmed cases: More than 73,400
Total deaths: At least 1,874

CNBC right now:

Coronavirus live updates: Japan is on ‘cusp’ of outbreak, France warns of pandemic risk
PUBLISHED TUE, FEB 18 20207:34 AM EST


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