Coronavirus Update and Tweets of the Day

Mish

US schools shut, more Princess Cruise Ship disasters, Huge hotel cancellations, airline index plunge.

Coronavirus Cases by Country - 2020-03-05

That is a partial list, condensed from Worldometers.

New Cases March 5

  • 51 new cases and 1 new death in the United States. 11 in New York State: 3 are in serious condition and are treated in intensive care units [source] New cases include a man in his 40s and a woman in her 80s. 1st case in Nevada, Tennessee, New Jersey
  • 138 new cases and 3 new deaths in France, including the first 3 cases in Corsica
  • 7 new cases in Ireland: including the first in Cork, with no recent history of travel, who is being treated in an intensive care unit.
  • 1 new death in Iran today is of a senior Iranian politician, Hossein Sheikholeslam, Iran’s former ambassador to Syria and former advisor to current Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. He was 67 years old
  • 5 new cases in Brazil
  • 1 new case in Luxembourg: a person who had recently returned from Northern Italy
  • 281 new cases in Germany
  • First 7 cases in Palestine, West Bank. 5 new cases in addition to the first 2 reported earlier. Palestinian Authority closes Bethlehem churches and mosques for two weeks
  • 28 new cases in the UK . 1st death, an older patient with pre-existing conditions.
  • 769 new cases and 41 new deaths in Italy, which becomes the country with the largest daily increase in cases and deaths in the world. Among the 3,296 active cases, 1,790 (54%) are hospitalized, 331 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care. Among the 562 closed cases, 414 (74%) have recovered, 148 (26%) have died.
  • 42 new cases in Sweden, bringing the total number of cases in the country to 94.
  • 5 new cases in Slovenia.
  • 5 new cases in Denmark including former Danish footballer Thomas Kahlenberg
  • 1 new case in Oman: a man who had recently traveled to Milan, Italy
  • 4 new cases in the Czech Republic
  • 1 new case in Lebanon: a Lebanese woman coming from Britain
  • 3 new cases in Portugal: two males, aged between 40 and 50, admitted to São João Hospital in Porto, and a man in Lisbon who had recently traveled to Italy
  • 44 new cases in the Netherlands
  • 25 new cases and 1st death in Switzerland: a 74-year-old woman who had been hospitalized since March 3. The woman suffered from a chronic illness. Source of infection still unclear.
  • 54 new cases and 1 death in Spain
  • 30 new cases in Japan, including 8 in Tokyo and 8 in Aichi
  • 22 new cases in Greece
  • 1 new case in Canada (Québec)
  • 1st case in South Africa: a 38-year-old man who had traveled to Italy with his wife. They were part of a group of 10 who arrived back in South Africa on March 1.
  • 9 new cases in Iceland
  • 27 new cases in Belgium
  • 591 new cases and 15 new deaths in Iran
  • 5 new cases in Finland: 3 in the Helsinki and Uusimaa hospital district, 1 is in Pirkanmaa and 1 in Kanta-Häme. The case in Kanta-Häme is a child in Hämeenlinna who had returned from northern Italy with their family on Tuesday.
  • 8 new cases in Norway
  • 15 new cases in Austria
  • 467 new cases, 5 new deaths, and 47 new recoveries in South Korea
  • 139 new cases (134 in Hubei), 31 new deaths (all in Hubei) and 2,189 new discharges occurred in China on March 4, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China.

That is also a partial list, condensed from Worldometers.

Hotel Cancellations

Still More Princess Cruise Disasters

Jim Bianco

Schools Shut in Seattle

Airline Index Plunge

South Korea vs US Testing

Other than these kinds of things, it's fully contained.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (59)
MiTurn
MiTurn

Fascinating. And scary. I'm retired, so I don't have to worry about losing work hours due to quarantine, but this will be tough for many Americans who live month to month. Gosh.

Hoping for the best.

No. 1-18
Iowan
Iowan

Interesting note by the doctors over at promedmail.org... they're comparing Egypt's lack of reporting to what happened with Dengue. All the surrounding nations seem to know Egypt is a problem because everyone coming back has coronavirus, but Egypt won't admit it.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Have national elections ever been cancelled due to epidemic?

john of sparta
john of sparta

wife's conference in Las Vegas called off.
as above: airlines, hotels, eats, entertainment all gone.

abend237-04
abend237-04

The huge difference in death rates between Hubei and the other China cities continues.
The 13,004 cases outside Hubei have reported only two deaths in the past five days. Hubei has reported 175 during the same period on 65,187 cases, using report 37 as a reference starting point for both.
At this rate, Hubei will lose 175 X 6 = 1,050 in a month, or 1.6% while all 33 China cities outside Hubei will lose only 2 X 6 = 12 in a month or only .0009%.

Someone has some 'splainin to do.

SMF
SMF

Coworker had his Princess Cruise cancelled due to the above story. Him and another coworker state that Hawaii vacations are now quite cheap.

njbr
njbr

Hey, whats going on--CDC reports 99 cases total.

njbr
njbr

Study of cases in Shenhzen...

....Cases were older than the general population (mean age 45) and balanced between males (187) and females (204). Ninety-one percent had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial assessment. Three have died, 225 have recovered (median time to recovery is 32 days). Cases were isolated on average 4.6 days after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1.9 days....This work shows that heightened surveillance and isolation, particularly contact tracing, reduces the time cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing R. Its overall impact, however, is uncertain and highly dependent on the number of asymptomatic cases. We further show that children are at similar risk of infection as the general population, though less likely to have severe symptoms; hence should be considered in analyses of transmission and control....

Identifying, testing, contact tracing, rapid treatment and quarantine--all important to putting a lid on an outbreak. What is the US doing in the cases here?

By the way, median time to recovery....32 days!!!

Kids are a stealthy vector for the virus.

FloydVanPeter
FloydVanPeter

School districts in Redmond, Bellevue, Kirkland (suburbs of Seattle) still open. It is all for the children.

crazyworld
crazyworld

From the above, the conclusion should be that Korea has apparently chosen (knowingly because of their experience with other virus invasion) the best method in order to curb the infection rate but also avoid the severe cases to decay beyond possible repair by taking care of them at an earlier stage of lungs destruction.
One of their joker; Make an easy testing method and test almost everybody in the way of infectious people..
Well, the western countries though so much they would only be outside observers like in the previous cases (SARS, MERS..) that NOTHING was available to test the population at risk of being infected even if no symptoms are noticeable
The epidemic (even if stopped someway in the future) will be more serious and lethal than could have been for sure.

bradw2k
bradw2k

Told my team today we are going 100% work from home now for foreseeable future, instead of normal 3 days per week. They are all under 40 so not much direct risk anyway. But we all know high risk individuals, so just as important for the young and healthy to not be transmission vectors, as is practical. I may be early here, but I imagine in a month it'll be "common sense" everywhere in US to WFH if at all possible.

sangell
sangell

9 more cases in Iceland is catastrophic. Its the equivalent of more than 9000 cases in the US. Sweden appears to be getting hit hard too. Probably a lot of Iranian asylum seekers spreading the disease there.

Bring_The_Logic
Bring_The_Logic

WHO and others have estimated Ro of 1.4 to 3.5. That was with draconian lock downs in China and South Korea testing like crazy. What is the Ro for Italy where the data is probably better?

Applying that Ro, how long until 20% of the US population will be infected given the limited success of Doctors to request testing, the complete lack of proactive testing, and only instituting "suggested" quarantines?

Trumps legacy might be his poor response to a Pandemic that caused the unnecessary death of millions of Americans.

Carl_R
Carl_R

I wouldn't want to be in the travel business right now. Hotels, casinos, cruise ships, airlines, etc may see a lot of bankruptcies, especially if they are highly leveraged.

KidHorn
KidHorn

3 cases in MD. Just outside DC. Same county that NIH is in.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Two thoughts. First, in the coming months, many of the regular contributors here will get COVID-19. Some of us will not make it. Along with other preparations, now might be a good time to consider whether your will is in order.

Second, I talked to a nurse I know in Washington state (not in Seattle area). If someone needs to be tested, they have to be sent somewhere special for that, and it takes 4 days for the results to come back. Thus, keep in mind when looking at the US numbers that there is still a considerable lag between the numbers you see and when the people were actually infected.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

Holy Cow!

Bond yields CRASHING.

30 yr yield down 24 bps


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