India's cotton shipments to China could grow five-fold to 5 million bales (850,000 tonnes) in the next crop year as exporters rack up orders amid a trade war that is forcing the world's top consumer to look for other sources of supply.
The United States, the world's biggest exporter of the fibre, has cornered the bulk of Chinese imports for at least a decade. But China's decision to impose a 25 percent import tax from July 6 on American farm commodities, including on cotton, in retaliation for tariffs enacted by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump will allow India to grab a bigger share of the Chinese market.
"In the last few weeks we are getting good inquiries from China for the new season crop," said Arun Sekhsaria, managing director of D. D. Cotton, an exporter that earlier this month sold cotton to China for shipments in November and December.
"If the 25 percent duty stays there as announced, then India could export 5 million bales to China," he said.
"India will benefit not only because of the tariffs, but because emerging nations' currencies have generally lost value against the dollar in the last couple of months," said Gabriel Crivorot, an analyst at Societe Generale in New York.
Winning by Losing
- A Fed study shows "Tariffs Kill High-Paying American Manufacturing Jobs and Businesses".
- Auto job losses alone are likely to hit 45,000 as noted in Pandora's Box: Another Look at Steel Tariffs.
- On June 8, I noted Three US Tire-Chord Makers Threaten to Close Doors Due to Trump Tariffs.
Trump believes China will lose more. This we call "winning".
Mike "Mish" Shedlock