Don't Watch the Latest Polls, Instead Watch the Trends

-edited

Here's the 6 most recent Tory poll results: 40, 36, 34, 36, 41, 36. Is there a trend? Yes, you have to dig to find it.

It's easy to see that Boris Johnson and the Tories have a lead. But is it 4% or 17%?

Is YouGov right or Opinium? What about Survation?

This is not the right way of looking at things. You can go mad watching these results seemingly jump all over the place.

Some of these pollsters are going to be way off the mark.

Theresa May was supposed to win in a blowout but she barely hung on.

Missing the Picture

In regards to Theresa May, nearly what everyone missed was the trend heading into election day.

While most of the polls had the Tories winning, the trends were decidedly moving towards Labour in the last couple weeks before the election.

That was a very ominous sign for the Tory party.

Had the election been a week later she may have lost. Had the election been a week earlier, she may not have needed DUP to survive.

Trends

What are the trends?

There seems to be a lot of give and take if you aimlessly follow the latest polls.

However, the trends are very clear if you plot by pollster.

Tory Party Poll Trends

Data for my charts is from Wikipedia.

The range of the most recent Tory polls is 34-41%.

All six of the pollsters have the Tory party gradually and consistently gaining strength.

Labour Party Poll Trends

The range the six most recent Labour polls is 21-29%.

Four of six polling organizations suggest support for Labour is stagnant. The other two say support for Labour is rising, but not as steeply as support for the Tories.

ComRes shows a rising trend for Labour, but it from October 10 and is thus very stale.

One bad print from ComRes will have 5 of 6 stagnant trends for Labour.

Clustering

  • The six most recent polls for Labour average 24.17%
  • The six most recent polls for Tories average 37.17%

That's an average lead of 13%, easily enough for a Tory landslide.

Leave or Remain?

YouGov Poll Trends say people support Remain.

But check out another YouGov poll.

No Deal and No Corbyn

By a 48% to 35% margin, Britons would rather have No Deal and no Corbyn than Corbyn.

That poll is from August 17, 2019 and might easily be more skewed against Corbyn today.

My trend charts support that determination.

Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus had it this way in September.

"Our regular month-end poll of polls shows an average Conservative lead of seven per cent over Labour. This is just enough for a small majority in the House of Commons, which is the headline prediction above."

Electoral Calculus October 30

"Prediction based on opinion polls from 01 Oct 2019 to 25 Oct 2019"

That is a stunning victory for Johnson even without a Brexit Party alliance.

National Polls

It's important to not overemphasize support for Remain.

This is not a national election.

London would overwhelmingly vote Remain, but London business leaders certainly do not want Corbyn.

National polls don't count in a first-past-the-post regional voting system. This is what Hillary Clinton found out in spades.

These Brexit trends can change at any time, but there is no particular reason to believe they will.

Like it or not, voters are getting more comfortable with Johnson, and Johnson has business on his side.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (30)
No. 1-16
FromBrussels
FromBrussels

Let s hope the Uk constituency realizes that the EU in its present megalomaniac form is a failed paradigm especially taking into account the imminent (a couple of years or less) social economic financial crisis which is inevitable unless miracles happen ....but I don t believe in extraterrestrials....do you?

avidremainer
avidremainer

Wrong poll, the one you show Mish is the outcome of the 2017 election. UK pollsters are almost universally crap. They should all be forced to give the number of people who refused to be polled. It would be instructive.

Mish
Mish

Editor

I do not believe any of them are wrong. The 48-35 is not as recent as I thought however, it is from August 2019 - likely more tilted in that direction now

Mish
Mish

Editor

Avid Remainer - That chart is current. It also shows 2107 result.

"Prediction based on opinion polls from 01 Oct 2019 to 25 Oct 2019, sampling 11,304 people."

Mish
Mish

Editor

I went to put in "Prediction based on opinion polls from 01 Oct 2019 to 25 Oct 2019"

but it was already there.

Prediction is current (as of Oct 25)

SMF
SMF

Governments of today are nothing more than the royalty and nobility of yesterday. People don't need more of them and we certainly could be better with a lot less of them.

Greggg
Greggg

Too bad Styxhexenhammer666 doesn't cover British politics... he nailed the 2016 US election when all of the fake pollsters tried to steer the election to Hillary.

wootendw
wootendw

"That's an average lead of 13%, easily enough for a Tory landslide."

A Tory landslide means Johnson gets whatever deal he wants and that most definitely will not be No Deal.

Mish figured out that Johnson & Macron were negotiating. But what did they agree on? Any Brexit deal seems good for Macron as he gets rid of Brits like Farage in the EU parliament and even a few more seats for France. But Macron surely doesn't want No Deal Brexit and it is quite likely that, whatever deal Boris made with Macron, it excludes No Deal Brexit.

I hope the Brexit Party puts a spanner in the (Tory) works.

soundopinion
soundopinion

Brexit Party is the only vote for Leavers, so the trend will favor this party the most. 11% and 0 seats will look like a joke in 6 weeks.

Voting Lib Dem, Labor or Conservative are voting for 3 different versions of Remain.
BJ's treaty is probably the worst, since in order to even commence negotiations for any trade deal, the UK is forced to be totally aligned with the EU! All BJ did was agree to pay Billions upon Billions to follow all EU rules for at least 3 more years, with absolutely no UK say in the EU rules, and BJ even hived off Northern Ireland to boot! All this just to sit down at the table to negotiate a trade deal with any country on earth? He calls this Brexit? Madness!

This will come out over the next 6 weeks as the electorate starts to understand BJ's BRINO Treaty.

spokane
spokane

Hi Mish please don't post this I am requesting if could do a quick tutorial for me and a number of my friends herein nYC. First I am a professional composer coming late to the news both political and financial. Could explain for us the bloomberg article:

Is it true our dollar will collapse and are other countries immune to our economy as well and are we immune to theirs. EG

spokane
spokane

Please excuse posting here with this post of yours I did not know where to put it

Escierto
Escierto

You always refer to Britons instead of English men. The English can have their nationalism but the Scots will have theirs too. It's quite possible SNP sweeps every seat in Scotland. Good riddance finally to the UK. Alba gu brath!

soundopinion
soundopinion

When I wrote my comment, I had no idea BJ was going to eliminate No Deal Brexit from his platform later today. I figured BJ would keep lying that No Deal was still a possibility in order to hide his Remain view. Wow, if you still don't understand the Tories are Remainers yet, you are extremely naive.

Brexit Party will pick up dramatically in the polls in the next 6 weeks and earn a good number of seats in the election.

djwebb1969
djwebb1969

I'm a leaver and I'm less comfortable with Johnson. Not only is the real nature of the current deal unanalysable before the final trade deal is revealed in 3 years' time, but Johnson wants to massively step up African and Asian migration. What part of "no globalism" doesn't he get?

Fulgurite
Fulgurite

My reply is again not showing... I'll see if I can copy paste what I wrote earlier.

Fulgurite
Fulgurite

Mish, listen to this chat between Nigel Farage and Rod Liddle and fast forward to ~ 28:00:

Listen to Nigel's words;

"...somebody comes in and fills the gap..." @28:30. "...we reset the political debate and the agenda..." @28:43. "...but we're an incredible threat..." @28:59. "...I think we reached a point...when Johnson and his strategists when faced with the next general election...realise one thing: they simply can't win...without some accommodation." @29:20. "...Boris needs to win/gain 50 seats...where are they coming from?" @29:44. "...a deal with me can give him that..." @29:57.

And there you go Mish, that is the outline of what you called Farage's "Preposterous Brexit Alliance Demand.”