Theresa May's deal will get overwhelmingly clobbered in UK tomorrow. The usual circus will then ensue. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will threaten a motion of no confidence.
The remainers will give passionate pleas. So will those who favor a hard Brexit as will those who want a super-Canada deal or a super-Norway deal.
Everyone, but those backing Theresa May will temporarily happy. But the temporary happiness will last for about 15 minutes.
May will have 3 days to present Plan B.
She will do so but it will be the same as plan A. May will go to Jean-Claude Juncker who will be happy to write a set of non-binding lies on a napkin for May to present to parliament.
Will that be enough? Probably not. But it is unlikely to be meaningful then. If there is another rejection in Parliament, the EU might offer some equally meaningless non-binding gibberish about the backstop.
Nothing Has Changed
Eurointelligence has been amusing recently. Last week it thought a no-deal Brexit was the base scenario. Before that, for months it presented the case that May's deal would get approved at the last minute.
Today, Eurointelligence writes "We argue that the most likely option is agreement on a amended version - possibly Norway - either after tomorrow’s vote or after a new election".
For months, Eurointelligence stated "nothing has changed." It also presented the view that new elections were an extremely low probability. "
Given last week's opinion vs today's opinion, something had to change somewhere.
The problem with an EEA "Norway" option is that the UK would be stuck in a customs union, unable to negotiate its own trade deals.
A Norway deal would also hold the UK to Schengen Agreement and open travel, thus the term super-Norway to carve out exclusions.
The UK would be stuck with the asinine agricultural rules of the EU.
Note that he EU is not even in a position to offer EEA membership, as this would also require the explicit consent of the existing EEA members as well as all the nations in the EU.
And finally, the UK would have to contribute to the EU forever.
Another UK vote is highly unlikely. No one wants it. Nor does the public.
But that does not prevent May from threatening such a vote to get her way.
The base scenario, remains what it has been all along: a no deal Brexit.
In the absence of a no agreement on anything else, a no-deal Brexit wins.
Only One Vote Matters
The other fact of the matter is only the last vote counts. May will keep returning with the same idiotic deal over and over again unless Parliament approves some other option.
Meanwhile, despite what the EU says, they will keep extending the clock until they get a deal they like or a request from the UK for a Norway deal.
Stupidity May Rule
Despite the asininity of a Norway option, it is possible enough remainers, Labour and DUP MPs get together to request that option.
Should the UK opt for a Norway deal, they would have been better off not leaving.
Nonsense From Eurointelligence
Today Eurointelligence commented "We don’t think that this would be superior to the deal May negotiated, but it is surely superior to extreme options of a no-deal Brexit or a second referendum."
Fearmongering is widespread. Planes wont fly, pets will be stuck in Europe, etc.
It is all complete nonsense. The way to get a good deal quickly is to leave cold turkey.
The EU is headed. German, French and Italian Industrial Production Crashed.
German exports to the the UK will plunge. The UK can stop the EU from fishing in its waters. The UK will stop paying into EU coffers.
Via Eurointelligence, "The best way forward, FAZ writes, would be for the UK to join the EU’s Common Transit Procedure as a third country. This treaty is used to facilitate trade with Norway and Switzerland, which are also not in the EU’s customs union. This would allow customs procedures to be shifted away from the physical border. There is, in other words, a notion of a managed no-deal."
Stupidity vs Super-Stupidity
It is only if and when Theresa May gets a backbone, that the EU will listen.
And it would be super-fast, in EU terms, say within a year.
Unfortunately, it appears the primary options are stupidity vs super-stupidity.
Duty to Leave
Theresa May wasted two full years negotiating the worst trade deal in history.
All the while she lied "No deal is better than a bad deal." Today she talks of a duty to leave. What a sorry joke.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock