Eat, Drink, and Be Merry Shopping at Amazon

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Retail sales unexpectedly surged 0.7% in July fueled by Amazon, food, and drinks.

Eat, Drink, and Be Merry

The message from today's retail sales report is Eat, Drink, and Be Merry shopping at Amazon.

The Commerce Department reports Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services jumped an unexpected 0.7% in July, fueled by a surge in non-store retailers and purchases at food and drinking places.

Amazon Impact

Amazon's impact on retail sales is easy to spot by comparing three-month totals of 2019 to last year.

May Through July 2019 vs 2018

  • Nonstore Retailers: +14.2%
  • Department Stores: -5.5%
  • Sporting Goods Stores: -3.0%
  • Clothing Stores: -2.2%
  • Electronic Stores: -4.4%

No Hint of Recession Here

This report was much stronger than expected. The consensus estimate was a gain of 0.3%.

Yet, bond yields are down again.

The 30-year long bond yield is 1.982%, down 4.5 basis points from yesterday, and holding the lower yields I posted earlier this morning. See 30-Year Long Bond Yield Crashes Through 2% Mark to Record Low 1.98%.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (9)
No. 1-3
Matt3
Matt3

Maybe the 30 year bond yield is not tied to the US economy.
Could it be that those that would be buying EU sovereign debt are not willing to buy negative yields and have now moved over to US debt? This would drive higher demand for US debt.The move in yields would be more reflective of supply and demand of sovereign debt with a positive yield and less a predictor of the US economy. With all of the negative yielding securities, we are surely in a different world. So who knows?

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"This report was much stronger than expected. The consensus estimate was a gain of 0.3%."

...

True. But helped by negative revision for June. And if anyone asks - May revised down, too.

Yields tanking, again. 30 yr yield at 1.92. Down 11 bps.

Watching the long end crater this month harkens of Quint and Hooper, when they first spot Jaws.

Jackula
Jackula

Perhaps asset deflation is starting but the those that don't own assets still don't realize what is coming. Party like its 1999. I've been buying business supplies thru online retailers lately simply to save money.