ECRI says "Very Serious" Synchronized Global Downturn

The ECRI says the global slowdown is "very serious". How serious? Not serious enough to cause a recession, yet.

In a Bloomberg video interview, ECRI co-founder Lakshman Achuthan says "Very Serious" Global Synchronized Growth Downturn Seen.

Achuthan also says the economy is "not vulnerable to a recessionary shock at the moment. That can change, but right now, no recession risk."

Achuthan added the global industrial cycle is slowing down.

Flash of Red

"We don't necessarily have to go into recession as a result of that flash of red."

He concluded "Not at that window of vulnerability, yet", strongly emphasizing "yet", while adding "I am not playing this down at all. I think we have a very serious global synchronized downturn."

How "very serious"? Not "very serious" enough to cause a recession "yet".

So, no matter what happens, Achuthan is well position to brag about the outcome.

In a few months we will see one of these:

  • See, I said it was very serious. We went into recession. You heard it here first.
  • See, I said no recession despite the trade wars.

That was a perfect noncommittal interview. I have never seen better. He will have future sound bites to support any possibility.

Bloomberg's New Video Tactic

Bloomberg has a new video ad tactic.Bloomberg turned on video autoplay but turned off the sound.

If you want to shut down the video, you have to turn on the sound first.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock


Well, I got sucked in on that one too. And actually, it was very close. The NBER could easily have declared one. He stuck a really long time on that one. He simply could not say he was wrong. They have blown 3 now. Not sure if they even admit 1.


"Non-committal" is the hallmark of all good political speakers. Making a fence-sitting position look like decisive action is exactly what our overpaid leaders, CEOs, COOs and CTOs excel at in their jobs. We live in a world where the trick is to ignore the future, change nothing and pretend everything is business as usual, even as it begins to fall apart. It's entrenched in our culture and can't be erased except by disaster.


I still remember that dreadful 2013/14 recession that Mr Achuthan promised us repeatedly... He went kind of quiet after that for a long while, but here he is again!!!


Who can argue with a noncommittal expert: No one? Or everyone?