Emergency Coronavirus Lockdowns in 10 Italian Cities

Mish

The number of coronavirus cases are now rising exponentially in three countries outside of China. Italy is the latest.

Cases in South Korea have doubled every day for four straight days. And in Italy, 10 cities face a quarantine.

Here are some details from Worldometers.

Italy

  • With 79 total cases and 2 deaths, Italy now has - by far - the highest number of cases and deaths in Europe, accounting for over 60% of all European cases, and becoming the country with most cases among all western (non Asian) nations. There are now a total of - 55 cases in Lombardy region (including 1 death, 1 critical, and at least 14 serious cases), of which at least 35 in the Codogno area. There are 18 in Veneto region (including 1 death and at least 1 critical case).
  • EMERGENCY MEASURES: Towns and areas affected by the outbreak have been placed in lockdown: nobody is allowed to enter or leave the area (other than for special circumstances to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis).
  • Hundreds waiting for test results. 10 towns, 50,000 people, placed in precautionary voluntary quarantine. Schools (full list), workplaces, municipal and private offices, 3 train stations, coffee shops, and public places closed in the affected towns. All universities in Lombardy and Veneto regions, all schools in Trentino region will be closed starting Monday. Friuli Venezia Giulia region declared a state of emergency.
  • "People must be distantiated right now, because this is a virus that is transmitted very effectively at close range" said the director of the infectious diseases department of the Higher Institute of Health, Gianni Rezza.
  • The 38-year-old man in Codogno (Lodi), near Milan (patient #1) is in critical condition (mechanically ventilated in intensive care, according to his parents) and at least 14 contacts are in serious condition, according to doctors, and include: - 5 health workers and doctors. - 3 patients at the Codogno hospital. - 3 elderly (in the 70s and 80s) clients of a bar run by the father of the man's friend.
  • 1 new death in Italy, a 75-year-old woman who was hospitalized a few days ago for pneumonia in the Lodi area (Lombardy region) and had contacts with the 38-year-old man.

South Korea

142 new cases in South Korea, of which 92 linked to the Cheongdo Daenam Hospital, 38 to the Sincheon Daegu Church, and 12 unknown pending investigation.

South Korea Progression

  1. Feb. 18: 31 cases
  2. Feb. 19: 58 cases
  3. Feb. 20: 111 cases
  4. Feb. 21: 209 cases
  5. Feb. 22: 433 cases

CDC Warns of "Tremendous Threat"

US CDC: this virus represents a "Tremendous Public Health Threat. Likely that Community Spread may eventually happen in the United States"

Pandemic Predictions

South Korea Quarantine

Olympic Training in Japan Posponed

Bianco on Japan and South Korea

18 More Hospitals in China

Deaths on the Rise

And guess what happens when you build "hospitals" that look like stadiums to hold all the "mild" cases with everyone next to each other in beds.

What a disaster.

US Woefully Unprepared for Coronavirus

In case you missed it, please see Tweets of the Day: US Woefully Unprepared for Coronavirus

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (100)
lol
lol

Once it hit's the US this airborne virus will decimate whole cities especially with all the homeless transients seemingly everywhere could wipe out half the population in LA /San Mateo/Santa Cruz counties.Cali,NY virtually every major city already bankrupt and with there soaring homeless population......No one unless you're a drug dealer,pimp or work for the govt can afford to get sick today!

No. 1-21
MiTurn
MiTurn

Seems that the next phase of a pandemic are upon us. New locus of infection. People who became infected in Iran are now in Canada, UAE, Iraq, and Lebanon. People have contracted the coronavirus in Singapore and spread it to France and the UK. South Korea? Elsewhere? And when will Africa begin to show cases? A very fascinating event. Can't help but be reminded of the Spanish Flu pandemic.

Latkes
Latkes

In Italy:

Up to 3 months of arrest for those who do not comply with legislative decree
Failure to comply with the containment measures decided tonight by the Government to deal with the coronavirus emergency will be punished pursuant to article 650 of the penal code.

Hmmm...

The alleged patient zero, who came back from China and met with the 38 year old "patient #1" never had the virus (virus test negative, no antibodies either). Now everybody around him is sick.

AussiePete
AussiePete

In a disturbing development, it now appears that the contagious incubation period could be as long as 27 days...

Carl_R
Carl_R

According to official data:

  1. China has nearly 12k in serious and critical condition, most of them in Wuhan.
  2. Wuhan has a total of 64,084 cases, still rising at about 500 a day.
  3. Of the cases, 2,346 have died and 15,299 have recovered. That means there are 46,439 cases currently open.

Taking some wild guesses, I'll guess that Wuhan had perhaps 2000 open ICU beds before the Coronavirus hit, plus perhaps 10,000 regular beds open. They built 2000 more, probably all ICU beds. They also added perhaps 2000 non-ICU beds in the stadium, exhibition hall, and arena. By my guess, they now have 4000 ICU beds, and 12,000 regular beds. They need 12,000 ICU beds. If we guess that the 46,439 cases doesn't count a lot of cases with few symptoms, perhaps half of the remaining 34,000 need some form of hospital care, such as an IV for fluids and extra oxygen, that means they need about 17,000 regular beds.

So, they have 4000 ICU beds, and need 12000. They have 12,000 regular beds, and need 17,000. That would mean they need about 17,000 more total beds. Even based on the official stats, building 19 more hospitals seems about right. It also tells you why so many are dying - only 1/3 of the people that need an ICU bed have one available, even after building the new hospitals, and many people still can't get a bed at all.

If containment in other countries fails, and the odds are high that it will, this situation will be repeated elsewhere. How prepared is the US to build 20 new hospitals in, say, Chicago, in a matter of weeks? Even if they could build them, who would staff them?

Latkes
Latkes

This virus is great at generating fear. It's almost too perfect.

Bohm-Bawerk
Bohm-Bawerk

Tourism is 13% of Italy’s GDP. The country still hasn’t recovered from the Great Recession so I don’t see how this doesn’t create recessionary conditions for them.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Compared to a week ago:
Countries with new cases that had none a week ago: Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel
Italy: +2533%
S. Korea: +1753%
US: +133% (but, that is almost all from the Death Princess)
Japan: 127%
UAE: +44%
Australia: +40% (but, is from the Death Princess)
Taiwan: +30%
Canada: +29%
Hong Kong: +23%
Singapore: +19%
Hubei: +10%
Rest of China: +4%
Thailand: +3%

For a Pandemic, you need uncontrolled spread in multiple countries, on multiple continents. China, S. Korea, and Italy would seem to be sufficient for a declaration that we now have a pandemic. That should also be sufficient that the stock market notices.

Oh, and S. Korea is up to 556, now, another 123 since Mish's post just a little while ago.

Russell J
Russell J

6 weeks ago no one had even heard of this virus now close to 1 billion people are under some sort of quarantine situation. What can we expect in the next 6 weeks? 6 months?

Is it crazy to go stock up 6/8 weeks of supplies?

Anyone still think the olympics are gonna happen?

dodo
dodo

The sharp rise in cases in South Korea, Japan and Italy cannot be a recent event. They clearly show that where there had been heavy two way traffic with China or chinese tourists before the lock down, these places have the virus circulating undetected, they just haven't been testing or treating them like pneumonia or flu.

njbr
njbr

THIS IS AN IMPORTANT READ...it's viewpoint from virologists that say that containment is no longer a realistic hope--pandemic is here and the facts have to be faced now with governmental authority...

Past Time to Tell the Public: “It Will Probably Go Pandemic, and We Should All Prepare Now”

Escierto
Escierto

Anyone who is suspected of having the virus must be immediately killed. There is no other solution.

thimk
thimk

Please don't call me "chicken little" . I have lived in Florida for 25 years. And I am used to preparing for emergencies. Last major hurricane knocked out juice for 8 days and stifling heat followed. No gas and stores shelves were bare. Be safe, be smart,be ready; sometimes government doesn't have your back .

Hammeringtruth
Hammeringtruth

Coronavirus Northern Italy Iran Interesting Genetics: https://youtu.be/IUK2T7XiAVI

bradw2k
bradw2k

I have tickets to Switzerland and Italy mid-April ... but starting to seem like that may perfectly coincide with widespread quarantines and travel bans.

crazyworld
crazyworld

When patients with severe symptoms are able to find a place in an intensive care unit, that virus show a fatal rate of around 2 per cent.
In case of a pandemic, like in China Wuhan, the medical system will be completely overwhelmed. The authorities there have imported ten of thousand of medical personnel and are working on increasing hospital bed capacity.(more than 30.000 new beds so far.)
When the medical system will be unable to treat the severe case as needed, the death rate will probably rise up to 5 per cent.
I have read here above a paper recommending to accept the pandemic and stop containment procedures (including investigations of transmission links).
They recommend just prophylactic measures to avoid people to be infected like we actually do to avoid yearly flu epidemic.
They must not forget that most old age people over here in Europe at least vaccinate themselves each year against the specific flu virus, so the number of critical case is tremendously limited and the medical system is never overwhelmed by the yearly flu pandemic.
This covid-19 is far more dangerous (normal death rate for people able to reach the IC units is around 2 per cent which is more than ten time the flu death rate.) and also far more infectious (asymptomatic bearers spreaders every where)
In case of a pandemic I therefore think that giving up severe containment measures would not necessarily be the right choice.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

The spread of corona virus is depressing on its own, but equally depressing is the fact that a dumb virus will be responsible for introducing some sanity into a dysfunctional trainwreck of economic system. One can only hope.

tokidoki
tokidoki

We've just had the third death in Italy. From now on, I don't want to hear any remarks along: "tell me when the first Caucasian has died". But then again just like how the Chinese are screwing with their statistics, we can simply change the definition of Caucasian :) i.e. every white person except Italians.

STAT News has a new article titled: "The coronavirus is picking up steam outside China, narrowing chances of eliminating it"

Quoting a number of paragraphs:
Osterholm and others suggested overly narrow testing protocols are obscuring the world’s ability to see how far the virus has spread. In the United States, for instance, the Centers for Disease Control only recommends testing people who have symptoms and have been to China or who have symptoms and have been in contact with a suspected or confirmed case.

“Basically if you get tested and you’re found and you’re positive, then we know. But how many people right now are not being tested who are just like this case in Canada?” he asked.

If the Canadian doctor who caught the country’s most recent case had been following that type of protocol, the woman who returned from Iran would not have been tested for Covid-19, the disease the new virus causes.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

CDC is making preparations for a pandemic. Expect closures of schools, offices and any public interaction by summer if not before.

St. Funogas
St. Funogas

Here's the latest scientific paper, this one from China.

Scroll to the bottom of the abstract button and click on the download button to get a PDF of the complete paper.

They are saying based on their haplotype analysis what probably happened was that a mild form of the virus originated in Wuhan probably sometime in early to mid-November, then made its way to the fish market in December when the first serious cases started happening around December 8. This would explain why it got out of hand so quickly. All those mild cases were spreaders and since the CoV was still new and unknown, Covid-19 got off to a great start before anyone suspected anything was happening.

5 Replies

Carl_R
Carl_R

And what of the insane decision to have a buffet for 50-100k people in the early days of January? Just think how many people a single infect person could have passed SARS-COV-2 to in a matter of hours.

Stuki
Stuki

I assume the "mild" version you refer to, would be from their haplotype groups A and B, which they suggest could have been imported into Wuhan, or at least the Hua Nan market, from somewhere else. Or even evolved into Wuhan prevalent Group C haplotypes somewhere else, before being brought to, then exploding out of Wuhan.

While the sample numbers outside China, and really outside Hubei and Guangdong, are low; a cursory look at their figures, indicate groups A & B, hypothesized to possibly be ancestral to the “Big” Group C, are over represented in samples from outside China.

Per their inferred and hypothesized evolutionary paths, that does lend credence to the virus circulating, either subclinically or without a novel virus being considered as the source of presented symptoms, even internationally, prior to, or at least independent of, the "official" Wuhan outbreak.

Which would help reconcile the "everywhere they test, they keep confirming masses of cases" conundrum of the Diamond Princess, and also elsewhere.

Now that this preliminary network model is built, it would be awfully nice if the Japanese, Koreans, Italians, Iranians and others, would go through the effort of fully sequencing and publishing their own confirmed cases, so this could be expanded upon. As the network is expanded, it could well be it starts pointing back to ancestors circulating even earlier than mid November. Perhaps even to an origination somewhere outside of China…..

As the number of sequenced genomes grow, differences between haplotypes, or haplotype groupings, wrt symptoms, mortality etc. would also be nice. And also, over time, whether immunity acquired after an infection with a “mild” version, meaningfully carries over to and protect against subsequent infection with a “Wuhan Bad Boy” one.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Not sure I buy it. I've read stories of coronavirus being stolen from labs in Canada by Chinese nationals from Wuhan. This thing has the hallmark of a bioweapon if found to be true. We may never know the truth.

RayLopez
RayLopez

@Casual_Observer yes, me too. I also notice the WHO jumped on this paper and praised it, even asking scientists to sign a petition that implicitly praises this paper and denigrates the other scientific paper that speculates the Wuhan coronavirus was an escaped bioweapon virus. That's partisanship, not science, and seems like desperation by China and the WHO to cover up the real cause. But we're in no position to know, so this is all speculation.

Stuki
Stuki

The genomes are available to all comers on GISAID.... They also explain their methodology, and note which tools they used.... It's not like their conclusions are just pulled from "secret" CCP databases, and cannot be independently checked.

Since noone seem to care enough to bother sequencing and publishing sequences from the vast, vast majority of infected cases (more likely they have more pressing concerns; I'm not criticizing them. Just being annoyed by lack of data. First world problems.....), it is certainly possible that things would look different if more data was available.

As for the possibility that someone is curating which data is published: Fat chance. Noone understands the full complexity of any of this even remotely well enough to know where even to begin. And with so many eyes on data with so many hitherto undiscovered patterns and relations being discovered every day, the sort of clumsy attempts at curation which is the best anyone could hope for, would be too likely to leave taints for anyone even half literate to bother with.

As for whether posterity will prove the paper's conclusions correct or not; that's a whole 'nother story. While better than 42, 96 genomes, chosen just because they were the only ones they could get their hands on, isn't all that much to base the answer to life, the universe and everything on. Doubly so, since genome availability is invariably skewed by immediate clinical, and even political (emergency declarations..) concerns.

But the underlying methodology is sound, and pretty much universally recognized as such: You simply have to have full genomes, and from that construct likely networks, in order to piece together how the virus as of today looks to have gotten here.

njbr
njbr

"Recovered" people still transmit

Coronavirus: Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive again
Recovered and discharged people were sent to designated centres from Saturday onwards
Decision follows several instances in which recovered patients were found to be still carrying the virus and able to infect others


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