Equity Futures Dive as Pandemic Spreads: Coronavirus Tweets of the Day

Mish

Equity futures are taking a big hit this evening in response to an escalation in the coronavirus pandemic.

The WHO still has not put out a global pandemic alert.

However, it's clear the virus is spreading exponentially in many countries and on at least two continents.

Italy Update

  • 11 towns, 50,000 people, placed in lockdown.
  • Armed forces and police forces have been mobilized to form an insurmountable "health belt" around contagion areas. Roadblock violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.
  • Schools closed in Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Emilia Romagna, Liguria, and in Trentino Alto Adige regions. Universities closed in Piedmont.
  • Mayor of one of the towns in lockdown says they've run out of coronavirus testing kits.
  • 78 new cases in Italy and 1 new death.
  • Carnival in Venice and all sport and public events in Veneto cancelled.
  • All public and private events, including sport, cultural, and religious events in Lombardy cancelled. Movie theaters closed.
  • More than 40 football matches, including at least 4 Serie A games, postponed.
  • Armani cancels his fashion show today in Milan.
  • Teatro alla Scala in Milan suspends all performances.

Japan Update

  • 12 new cases
  • One new case was a woman in her 50s who works as a part-time school lunch attendant in Hokkaido. She had sore throat on February 15. She wore a mask, a white coat, and gloves, and carried lunches to 194 school children from the serving room to each classroom using a wagon.

South Korea Update

  • President Moon Jae-in raised the alert level to maximum (Level 4: Serious) thus empowering the government to lock down cities and restrict travel. “The coming few days will be a critical time for us” he said in an emergency meeting.
  • 166 new cases and 4 new deaths in South Korea.

South Korea Progression

  1. Feb. 18: 31 cases
  2. Feb. 19: 58 cases
  3. Feb. 20: 111 cases
  4. Feb. 21: 209 cases
  5. Feb. 22: 433 cases
  6. Feb 23: 602 cases

The above from Worldometers

US Equity Futures

  • S&P 500: -40 Down 1.22%
  • Nasdaq: -159 Down 1.7%

South Korea Kospi Index Plunges 3%

China Race against the Clock

China Lockdown Stats

New Iran Officials Soon Needed

Jim Bianco on South Korea

60% Decline in French Tourists

Iran Schools Closed

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (91)
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Indonesia wants a "coordinated global" solution to containing coronavirus. By the time world governments put a global plan together, the virus will be unstoppable. The best strategy for Indonesia (every country for that matter) is to quarantine itself from the rest of the world until every nation has no new cases in 30 days.

No. 1-29
Bam_Man
Bam_Man

It is on, like Donkey Kong.

The money printing response will be Biblical in magnitude.

Prepare yourselves accordingly.

shamrock
shamrock

Here it comes, the virus will be so bad Trump will cancel the elections and declare himself President for life.

Clover NL
Clover NL

Only 7 new cases in China? That's hard to believe. Is the lockdown preventing new cases from being identified?

10 Replies

Latkes
Latkes

It may be slowing in China. Looked like it for some time now.

The count based on superficial symptoms, btw.

Tengen
Tengen

I saw the same chart a few hours ago, except the China numbers were much higher (+652 new cases and +99 deaths).

Posted the link for Mish below.

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

The only question with China’s numbers is to add 1 zero or 2. I vote two.

FloydVanPeter
FloydVanPeter

China figures are meaninglessness.

psalm876
psalm876

During our nighttime hours is when the local Chinese statitisions check in. So their stats grow at night and our stats during the day, naturally.

WarpartySerf
WarpartySerf

"The only question with China’s numbers is to add 1 zero or 2. I vote two."

Exactly ..... I figured 50-100x times the "statistics" the absolutely ignorant media are parroting to the public. Who believes anything media says? In China or the USA.

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

@WarpartySerf
The few people I have talked to about this absolutely hate the truth. It’s always the same Na that’s not going to happen. They are always very sure of themselves.

People hate the truth.

Carl_R
Carl_R

China is reporting about 500 cases a day now, or less than 1% growth. Almost all new cases are in Wuhan. As you would expect, deaths, which are based on cases reported two weeks ago, continue to rise. Deaths continue to be concentrated in Wuhan, where the cases were growing in 2 weeks ago.

I know many/most here don't believe the Chinese stats, but it really doesn't matter whether they are correct or not, because regardless of whether they are correct or not, the global picture is not good. I'm hoping that they are correct, because that means that with draconian quarantines the spread can be limited, which is good for all of us.

In the end, behavior speaks louder than words, and the Chinese numbers do match their behavior. With falling cases, you'd expect them to try to re-open production, and they are supposedly doing that today. Re-opening production poses a new problem. Even if draconian restrictions on movement are able to stop the spread, can they keep the spread limited, and continue to produce at the same time?

Pater_Tenebrarum
Pater_Tenebrarum

Local governments were advised that they will be punished if new cases are discovered, so they no longer discover new cases.

Latkes
Latkes

Is this just a Soviet joke? I can't tell anymore.

thimk
thimk

401k Trump in deep pre election dew dew . Perhaps market plunges will motivated him to take on a leadership role, save lives and get this nasty critter under control. let's see .

ksdude69
ksdude69

I need more toilet paper.

Tengen
Tengen

Mish, the top chart doesn't look right. It's identical to the one I saw on Chris Martenson's video a few hours ago, except the top row (China) numbers were higher:

Note- the chart appears about 25 seconds into the video.

njbr
njbr

YOUR CHART IS WRONG--IT HAS BEEN REVISED BIGLY WORSE BY THE CHINESE

Greggg
Greggg

Notice how the Shanghai and CSI 300 no change over months now. Yeah right, no manipulation here! Meanwhile, Hang Sang down 440 (1.6%) right now.

abend237-04
abend237-04

Human versus virion: We should win. We're the toolmaker with the brain, but unfortunately, we're also the racist, bigoted, narcissistic, greedy dumbshit with the Tsetse fly attention span.
The Chinese had this damn thing's daddy on the ropes, SARS, in 2003. Because it wasn't killing us, only Chinese, we walked away, stopped grants studying how to detect and deal with coronaviruses, etc., and here we sit.

No career nor grant money in pandemic prevention my boy: Climate, Climate; That's the future...

Escierto
Escierto

Trump is going to declare martial law and dissolve Congress. The Constitution will be suspended and massive concentration camps will soon be populated with the diseased and the expendable. Finally the destruction of the country will be complete. What a joyous day.

psalm876
psalm876

How many sporting events will be able to assemble a crowd by the end of March? I know I would avoid a county fair and a political party convention, for sure!

bradw2k
bradw2k

China and Italy numbers have this similarity: 1/6-th of confirmed cases are serious or critical or deaths. S. Korea and Japan numbers way below that for some reason. I'm assuming measurement/reporting differences.

Bought $400 of pantry supplies at two different stores today, I seemed to be the only one, although I did notice all the Purell is sold out. ... Ready.gov/pandemic recommends a mere 2 weeks supply of food and water! In rich countries we are so used to living on just-in-time supply lines. Here it only takes a few days of ice storm for the locals to panic and decimate the grocery stores. So imagine if in a couple months the local gov officially declares a pandemic and closes schools and cancels events and tells everyone to stay home unless you absolutely have to go out? Half of a city population trying to buy an extra 2 weeks of food at the same time does not work.

Anyway, thanks Mish for recommending gold investments a few years ago. Glad I took that advice. It's almost doing as well my 30T's. :-)

121263
121263

Wow! The South Korea progression looks like a Fibonacci sequence.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Dow futures down 1.3%

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

The average age of our elected officials is pretty old.

Corona the new term limiter?

SMF
SMF

So many people and so many governments worried about the little things in life, while pandemics have killed far more people over our recorded history.

crazyworld
crazyworld

RECOVERED PEOPLE ARE NOT VIRUS FREE?

As I pointed out earlier this virus having on his corona SP proteins similar to the ones of HIV (AIDS) it could trump somewhat our immune system. Building an immunity against it could then be more problematic than in the case of a common coronavirus like the seasonal flu.

It is too early to make a generality about the facts noticed in China that some people having recovered still have a resilient virus niche. If that is
the average case then that will be a supplemental challenge in order to stem a pandemic until (and if) a vaccine is available.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The death rate is lower than the flu death rate in advanced nations. You are at risk if you have other conditions with your lungs or heart. We have a nebulizer at home with medicine in case anyone has an attack. Take your vitamins and try to exercise as it improves immune response.

psalm876
psalm876

Those in charge of prisons, jails and confined populations need to make ready plans to isolate those populations
from sources of infection! There are many critical tasks that need to be done now. Waiting may not be prudent.

mrutkaus
mrutkaus

50 TONS OF VITAMIN C SHIPPED TO WUHAN

Probably sodium ascorbate for intravenous use, but oral can't hurt.

sangell
sangell

NASDAQ FUTURES down 3 plus % at 6AM EST! 10 year bond a 1.386% We're heading to ZIRP again as Central Banks have nothing else to offer.

sangell
sangell

With market in panic mode CNBC's Becky Quick drags out the cadaver Warren Buffett to urge people to buy stock.

njbr
njbr

No pandemic--ever--WHO says it no longer has a process to declare a pandemic, says old system with 6 phases is no longer being used - Reuters

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

The central bankers nightmare: they print money, shovel it out of helicopters, and nobody shows up to pick it up.

Zardoz
Zardoz

And lo, upon the horizon appeared a lone rider, and the mucus did run freely down his blue face from under his blood caked surgical mask. And so it was that the first rider of the Stupocalpse rode forth.

Carl_R
Carl_R

I saw rumors that Iran has over 50 deaths now, which would imply that they probably have over 5000 cases, since early on the death/case ratio is low (1% or less), though it moves higher as the early cases reach 14 days or later.

Also, cases from Iran seem to be overflowing into the entire Middle East, another sign that Iran has a major problem. New cases have been reported in Kuwait(3), Oman(2), Bahrain, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

john of sparta
john of sparta

as posted above:
"How many sporting events will be able to assemble a crowd by the end of March?"
March Madness, indeed.


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