EU Parliament Election Recriminations Before Votes Even Counted. Totals Tonight.

-edited

We do not yet know the results of the EU parliament elections but blame and recriminations mount. Results this evening.

The Tories will get hammered in the EU elections. That much is well understood. But recriminations against Labour are far more bitter according to the Guardian Live Blog.

ITV’s political editor Robert Peston, Labour MEP, John Howarth, said: “Had Labour’s ‘high command’ set out to lose an election they could not have gone about it in a more convincing way”.

Result Announcement Shortly

  • National estimates are expected to start coming from 5 pm.
  • European Parliament-wide results projection will be released at 10.15 pm this evening after the last polling station on the continent has closed.
  • Provisional results for Britain will be released around 11 pm. This and the final Europe-wide results will be updated through the night.

What to Watch

The New York Times comments What to Watch For in the European Parliament Election Results.

With more than 400 million Europeans across the 28 countries of the European Union entitled to vote in the European Parliament elections that end on Sunday, the poll is, next to India, the largest democratic exercise in the world.

But since these elections began 40 years ago, when the bloc was only 15 countries, turnout to vote for the Parliament — the bloc’s only directly elected branch — has decreased every five years.

Populists

There are varying strains of populists in Europe, and they do not all agree with one another.

But they are united for the most part in opposing immigration, strengthening Europe’s borders, hammering “the elites” and increasing the power of national governments against “Brussels,” a generic word for the European Union’s technocratic bureaucracy.

Key Items

  • Brexit Party Results: Nigel Farage's Brexit Party is expected to win the most UK seats
  • Turnout: Will it decline below the 42.6 percent of 2014, or will Europeans respond to calls from both populists and mainstream politicians who suggest that this election is important for the future of Europe?
  • Populists in France: Marine Le Pen's results may top that of French president Emmanuel Macron
  • Populists in Italy: How well will eurosceptic Italian leader Matteo Salvini do?

What to Expect

Anything.

European polls are notoriously inaccurate. Anything from 28% to 42% for the Brexit party would hardly be surprising. I will take a shot at 38%.

The battle between Macron and Le Pen is amusing but it's somewhat of a side show. Both are expected to get about 23%.

Does it really matter if it 23% vs 22% as opposed to 22% to 23% the other way? I fail to see how, but that is how the French newspapers portray it.

I will go out on a limb and suggest 24% for Le Pen and 22% for Macron. But I would not be surprised at all with a range of 20% to 26% for Le Pen.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (35)
No. 1-5
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

With Farage and populists doing so well, might Boris Johnson go for a soft BREXIT to gain strength in the UK, and strengthen populists effort to derail the Brussels technocrats? Or might he take a hard BREXIT, but work out trade deals with individual countries where populism is strong? I prefer the second option because sovereignty will give the UK more flexibility negotiating trade deals.

avidremainer
avidremainer

A little knowledge is dangerous, no knowledge is fatal. In order to get an FTA with the EU you deal with the Commission, try to talk to the individual country and they will say " Talk to the Commission ". Mrs May's main fault was that she thought negotiating with the EU is the same as negotiating within the EU. A major fault with her and the Brexit loonies-no understanding how the EU works.

Mish
Mish

Editor

AvidRemainer, the odds strongly favor no deal. A wishy-washy deal is second. A referendum is a very distant third, and it might not even pass.

Of course, the EU, led by France might not even wait if the UK decides to hold one.

Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat

Hmmmm.... I've a lot to learn about the EU and Britain's relation to it.

Can someone tell me, is this the equivalent of Texas succeeding from the Union?

From what little I have learned, I don't see a road to the EU being ultimately successful. Anything meaningful has to be approved by all 28 countries. That's like having a constitutional convention in this county every time you want a major change in international relations.

The Euro doesn't allow poor countries (Greece, Italy, etc.) to inflate their way out of economic downturns like the US. These seem to be formidable headwinds.

Am I missing something?

Webej
Webej

It is the Brexit party and EU elections in Britain that are the side show. The percentage of people voting is dismal. Nobody expected the British to be involved in this election, the MEP's will likely not be sitting for much of their term. The fact that the few people who bothered to vote are fueling the Brexit party means little -- of course there are a lot of people who find the idea of participating in a European election at this point tiresome. Nobody is thinking about what policies the British representatives should or shouldn't be backing in their short-lived to be aborted term.

The Macron/Le Pen battle is much more important to the future of the EU, because it is emblematic for the struggle between elitist globalist "progressive" politics and a more nationalist populist wave for the future, and perhaps even a push to make the EU more representative.