Excellent Set of Tweets on Bonds, Crashes, Cannabis, Lumber by Charlie Bilello

Normally when I do "Tweets of the Day" they are from different people. Here is a set of Tweets from Charlie Bilello.


Movie Pass

Total Returns

Crash Course on Crash Courses

Lumber Part 1

Lumber Part 2

Crypto vs Fiat 2018

Hank Paulson Lies

Credit Spreads

Mish Comments

  1. I confess. This idea was not mine. Rather I picked the idea up from Lindzon Lindzon @howardlindzon.
  2. I believe Bilello's Tweet on credit spreads is the key. As long as junk companies can get cheap junk financing, it is highly unlikely there will be the crash that many have called for.
  3. I am positive the market is insanely overvalued, but that does not imply a "crash" as we saw from 2007-2009. Nor have I called for a crash. I define a crash as a 30% or greater decline in a year.
  4. My favored scenario, and the most painful one, is not a crash but rather a slow bleed over 5-10 years that takes the S&P 500 50%-65% lower.
  5. When does it start? Sorry, I don't know. My crystal ball refuses to say. All my crystal ball is willing to say is that credit spreads will looking nothing like they do today at the end of it all.

Thanks to Charlie Bilello and Lindzon Lindzon

Mike "Mish" Shedock

Comments (10)
No. 1-9

Early public cannabis plays like Tilray are going to get killed after this initial hype run-up... industry winners will be private, not public. And margins will NEVER support these valuations - never. B/t taxes & regulation, there will be little left for "investors"... the states will make sure of it.


"B/t taxes & regulation, there will be little left for "investors"... the states will make sure of it."

Likely be true in lots of areas of the World/US, and for more than just cannabis, as some turn more socialist.


Shanghai is down close to 20% YTD. They may see a crash of 30% or more before the year is done.

I can see a crash in the US. A sudden drop leads to margin calls which leads to a bigger drop, etc... . I would think the FED would step in and buy every future, but it may be too much and too fast for them.


Any cryotos out there backed by weed?



I expect continued slow economic growth of 2% per year on average. As a result, overall markets should continue to rise, with individual sectors all over the place. All provided a black swan event (such as a full-blown trade war) does not occur.