Historic AfD Gains in Brandenburg and Saxony
DW reports AfD Set for Second Spot in East German Elections.
- SPD: 26.2%
- AfD: 23.5%
- CDU 15.6%
- CDU: 32.4%
- AfD: 27.9%
- SPD: 7.7%
Had Brandenburg and Saxony been one state, AfD would have won.
Coalition math will be difficult. All the parties rule out working with AfD, but it will become the top opposition party with increased rights.
- There are a couple of broader trends we can discern from yesterday's results. The first is that coalitions in Germany - both at state and at federal level - will of necessity have three parties in the future rather than two. In Saxony the CDU won around a third of the vote, followed by the AfD at 27.5%. But the CDU is down 7pp, and the SPD lost 5pp to just under 8%. The Greens will have to join the grand coalition in Saxony. Otherwise there will be no majority.
- The SPD retained its position as strongest party in Brandenburg, but lost 6pp. The current coalition with the Left Party lost its majority too. Again, the Greens are needed to form a government. They are much smaller in the east of the country than in the west, but they are the big winners.
- The second trend is the persistence of the AfD vote. The AfD was the second-largest party in both elections, and the largest if you add the two states together. The AfD is the party of East Germany, a symbol of the country’s ongoing and in some cases deteriorating division. What is perhaps also surprising is that in Saxony the AfD is the strongest party among the under-30s. The AfD will not be governing Germany any time soon, but it has become part of the country's political fabric, and is there to stay.
- Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has survived these elections but, as FAZ reports, CDU politicians are beginning to question whether they made the right choice at the CDU party conference last year. The SPD will decide whether to continue or quit the grand coalition at the end of the year. The party will also select a new leader. Olaf Scholz, of the right of the party, is the most favoured candidate. The grand coalition is clearly unsustainable, but this observation does not help us very much. It is possible that both participants decide that they have no alternative options, and that they would rather continue until 2021 under the leadership of Angela Merkel.
- AfD topped age groups 18-24 and 25-35 in Saxony.
- AfD came in a close second in age group 45-59.
- Only those 60 an over voted strongly for CDU. Even then, AfD was in second place.
So much for the theory that the far-right is a party for older voters.
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Merkel's divisive policies not only gave rise to AfD, but she also managed to split Germany in two, East vs West once again.
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