Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit
A friend of mind writes "I saw a time series that shows that every single week of the year a majority in the UK would REMAIN if there were another referendum. It was a small majority, but a consistent one. It is therefore perplexing how a party that is not going to just deliver Brexit, but a hard Brexit is polling this well. There is a major disconnect."
Why is Johnson Polling So Well?
Here is my friend's implied question: Why is Johnson polling so well?
For starters Johnson isn't going to deliver a hard Brexit. It will be a negotiated Brexit. A withdrawal agreement will be signed. And despite Johnson's rhetoric, I suspect that the WTO arrangement will be managed, and far better than the Farage clan will have you believe.
I took a close look inside some of the recent polls and there are some interesting trends that explain what's going on.
Brexit Fading as an Issue
Brexit is fading as an issue, especially among women. Only 25% of women have Brexit as their number one issue.
And I am quite surprised by this: Only 17.1% of 18-24 year-olds have Brexit as their top issue.
Fewer and fewer believe the nonsense about "no deal" primarily because Johnson will deliver a deal.
Gender Gap Part One
40.6% of men will vote Tory but only 26% of women in the latest Survation poll.
Check out the undecideds! Only 10% of men are undecided vs a whopping 23.5% of women.
Female uncertainty is not just in the Survation poll.
Gender Gap Part Two
In the latest YouGov poll 21% of females are undecided but only 13% of men.
Is female voting uncertainty a normal state of affairs? I have not investigated enough to know.
Voting Intention Undecideds Removed
Note once again the male-female divergence.
A whopping 47.7% of men are likely to vote for Boris Johnson vs only 36.1% of women.
Note London and the whopping 58.8% Tory vote in the South. I will come back to London in a moment.
Referendum on Corbyn
My key idea to answer my friend's question is that the election has morphed into a referendum on Corbyn and away from a referendum on Brexit.
It's not that Johnson is very popular. Rather, Corbyn is exceptionally unpopular.
Not a Single Age Group Likes Corbyn
London is the key area in England where Remainers and socialists rate to do well. Liberals abound in London just like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York.
Yet even in London, Labour is struggling.
The current spread of Labour over the Tories is 1 percentage point. Survation has it at 3 percentage points.
In 2017 the spread was a 21.4 percentage points.
Labour is struggling mightily even in London, and even with tactical voting.
It should be easy to figure out: Business owners are scared to death of Corbyn.
In Touch or Out of Touch?
For those who have Brexit as the key issue, Jeremy Corbyn ranks dead last and Johnson first.
Who Would Make the Best Prime Minister
That's a pretty amazing poll.
A whopping 51.9% of men and 42.0% of women believe johnson would make the best Prime Minister!
Also note that Jo Swinson tops Jeremy Corbyn among women and age groups 55-64 and 65-74.
Not even 18-24 year-olds prefer Corbyn. The only demographic in which Corbyn leads is 25-34 year-olds.
Great Nationalization Backlash
The Telegraph reports Investors vow to fight Corbyn’s plans to seize British businesses
If you were wondering why Labour is losing ground in UK election polls, there it is, in spades.
The article did not even mention Corbyn’s plan to force homeowners to sell homes to renters at a government specified price.
This election is no longer primarily about Brexit, it's primarily about Corbyn and his extreme socialist policies!
Corbyn is rightfully getting clobbered.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock